NYI beat COL 6-2, with the chances close: 3.82 expected goals to 3.37. B. Nelson led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. Lee had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. I. Sorokin stopped 32 of 34.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| COL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 1:01COLC. Ritchie0.20 xG
- 1st 5:33NYIA. Lee0.13 xG
- 1st 18:13NYIK. Palmieri0.18 xG
- 2nd 8:25NYIB. Nelson0.16 xG
- 2nd 11:14NYIB. NelsonSH0.23 xG
- 3rd 0:39COLC. Mittelstadt0.10 xG
- 3rd 6:48NYIA. Duclair0.15 xG
- 3rd 18:48NYIM. BarzalEN0.42 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYI 3.82 xGCOL 3.37 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Nelson | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 18:23 | 1:06 |
| K. Palmieri | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 17:34 | 0:52 |
| M. Barzal | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:28 | 0:56 |
| B. Horvat | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:41 | 1:00 |
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:40 | 0:40 |
| A. Lee | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:28 | 1:04 |
| A. Duclair | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:19 | 0:54 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:25 | 0:00 |
| J. Pageau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:31 | 1:04 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:42 | 0:00 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:34 | 0:00 |
| O. Wahlstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:18 | 0:00 |
| A. Pelech | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:19 | 0:00 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 23:08 | 0:00 |
| A. Romanov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | +1 | 2 | 21:44 | 0:24 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +3 | 2 | 17:57 | 0:00 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 20:18 | 1:08 |
| M. Reilly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:39 | 0:52 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Sorokin | 34 | 32 | 2 | .941 | 59:52 | Win |
| S. Varlamov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. MacKinnon | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 23:00 | 3:00 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 20:02 | 3:18 |
| C. Ritchie | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:07 | 0:30 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 22:27 | 3:19 |
| R. Colton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:07 | 3:21 |
| L. O'Connor | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:23 | 0:09 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:51 | 0:09 |
| M. Wood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:15 | 0:09 |
| N. Kovalenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13:31 | 0:33 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:56 | 0:00 |
| I. Ivan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:42 | 0:32 |
| C. Wagner | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:46 | 0:00 |
| C. Makar | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 22:26 | 3:09 |
| J. Manson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 17:42 | 0:09 |
| S. Girard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:48 | 0:51 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:13 | 0:42 |
| J. Ludvig | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:03 | 0:00 |
| O. Kylington | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 17:03 | 0:09 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Georgiev | 36 | 31 | 5 | .861 | 56:38 | Loss |
| J. Annunen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYI 3.0, COL 3.6 | NYI 6, COL 2 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | NYI 28.8, COL 34.9 | NYI 37, COL 34 |
| Win chance | COL 60% | NYI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 5.5 | 5 | 1.70 | 1 | 45% | 0 |
| COL M. Rantanen | 3.9 | 3 | 1.38 | 0 | 43% | 0 |
| COL C. Makar | 3.5 | 2 | 1.20 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| NYI B. Horvat | 3.2 | 1 | 0.79 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 3.0 | 4 | 0.67 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| NYI M. Barzal | 2.9 | 3 | 0.95 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| NYI B. Nelson | 2.8 | 5 | 0.88 | 2 | 34% | 2 |
| COL M. Wood | 2.5 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.4 | 7 | 0.50 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| COL C. Mittelstadt | 2.2 | 3 | 0.83 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| COL J. Manson | 2.1 | 1 | 0.40 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| COL R. Colton | 2.1 | 4 | 0.55 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NYI N. Dobson | 1.9 | 2 | 0.69 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| COL O. Kylington | 1.9 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYI M. Reilly | 1.8 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI A. Duclair | 1.7 | 2 | 0.58 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| COL L. O'Connor | 1.6 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYI O. Wahlstrom | 1.5 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| COL S. Girard | 1.5 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.5 | 1 | 0.36 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.5 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.4 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYI A. Romanov | 1.4 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.3 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYI A. Pelech | 1.3 | 2 | 0.31 | 2 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.2 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 1.0 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| COL C. Wagner | 1.0 | 2 | 0.13 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 1.0 | 2 | 0.21 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| COL J. Ludvig | 0.9 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 32 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.