Game Recap: NYI 1, COL 4, November 16, 2025

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Game Recap

NYI1

FinalSun, Nov 16, 2025Every game that night

COL4

COL beat NYI 4-1, with the chances close: 3.01 expected goals to 2.80. B. Nelson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Barzal had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. S. Wedgewood stopped 28 of 29.

Team Stats

NYICOL

29Shots on goal28

2.80Expected goals3.01

56Shot attempts56

205v5 shots on goal22

0/4Power play0/3

11Hits19

14Blocked shots11

11Penalty minutes13

12Giveaways14

3Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 2.80 xGCOL 3.01 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI29 on goal, 1 scored

COL27 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Palmieri	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	22:19	5:51
E. Heineman	LW	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	14:28	1:34
M. Barzal	C	0	0	0	6	1	1	-2	0	23:50	6:23
B. Horvat	C	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	0	22:25	6:11
J. Drouin	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	21:12	5:57
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	0	0	0	4	-1	0	16:41	0:08
J. Pageau	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	15:10	0:00
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	7	13:36	2:33
A. Duclair	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	10:45	0:00
M. Shabanov	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	10:33	1:14
C. Ritchie	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	6:54	1:14
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	5:37	0:00
T. DeAngelo	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	17:14	1:50
M. Schaefer	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	21:39	5:47
A. Romanov	D	0	0	0	2	3	2	-1	0	20:03	0:00
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	-1	2	18:28	0:00
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	18:18	0:12
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	2	16:22	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	27	24	3	.889	58:26	Loss
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Nelson	C	1	1	2	3	1	1	+1	0	19:04	1:05
M. Necas	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	2	19:09	4:31
V. Olofsson	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	16:18	4:21
R. Colton	C	1	0	1	4	4	0	0	0	14:43	1:11
P. Kelly	C	0	1	1	0	2	1	+1	2	8:54	0:00
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	22:06	4:21
N. MacKinnon	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	+1	0	21:19	4:28
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	+2	0	17:16	0:00
G. Brindley	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	2	14:30	0:55
G. Landeskog	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	+2	0	14:20	1:08
Z. Bardakov	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6:00	0:00
T. Makar	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	3:21	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	2	25:06	4:43
B. Burns	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	0	0	19:03	0:26
S. Malinski	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	13:23	0:00
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	+2	0	24:02	0:56
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	2	3	0	+1	5	17:07	0:00
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	16:19	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Wedgewood	29	28	1	.966	60:00	Win
M. Blackwood	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYI

Line 1J. Drouin14:48M. Barzal16:11S. Holmstrom13:57

Line 2K. Palmieri13:00E. Heineman12:36B. Horvat12:07

Line 3A. Lee10:18J. Pageau12:24A. Duclair10:45

Line 4C. Cizikas5:37M. Shabanov9:19C. Ritchie5:40

Pair 1S. Mayfield16:05A. Romanov17:17

Pair 2A. Pelech14:54T. DeAngelo15:24

Pair 3R. Pulock14:22M. Schaefer13:26

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon16:00A. Lehkonen14:21M. Necas13:30

Line 2B. Nelson13:15R. Colton13:32G. Brindley12:52

Line 3G. Landeskog13:12V. Olofsson11:57J. Drury13:21

Line 4P. Kelly6:24Z. Bardakov4:59T. Makar3:21

Pair 1D. Toews18:14C. Makar16:24

Pair 2S. Girard16:07S. Malinski13:11

Pair 3B. Burns14:24J. Manson13:06

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamBrock Nelson COL Faces NYI, his team until Mar 20251 G, 1 A, 3 SOG
BirthdayEmil Heineman NYI Turns 24 that day1 G, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYI 2.7, COL 3.7	NYI 1, COL 4
Total goals	6.4	5
Shots on goal	NYI 26.3, COL 33.5	NYI 29, COL 28
Win chance	COL 66%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.2	3	1.52	0	41%	0
COL C. Makar	2.9	2	1.21	1	25%	0
NYI B. Horvat	2.8	6	0.75	0	31%	0
COL M. Necas	2.6	3	1.06	1	32%	1
COL A. Lehkonen	2.5	2	0.81	0	32%	0
NYI M. Barzal	2.5	6	0.82	0	23%	0
NYI M. Schaefer	2.3	2	0.56	0	12%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	2.2	3	0.58	1	25%	0
COL V. Olofsson	2.2	2	0.64	1	26%	1
NYI A. Lee	2.1	1	0.46	0	21%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.0	3	0.70	2	30%	1
COL B. Burns	1.8	1	0.39	1	8%	0
COL R. Colton	1.8	4	0.46	1	19%	1
COL G. Landeskog	1.6	2	0.59	0	23%	0
COL J. Drury	1.6	0	0.37	0	14%	0
NYI E. Heineman	1.5	1	0.40	1	20%	1
COL S. Malinski	1.5	2	0.29	1	6%	0
COL D. Toews	1.5	0	0.58	0	10%	0
COL J. Manson	1.5	2	0.33	0	7%	0
NYI J. Drouin	1.3	2	0.65	0	17%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.3	1	0.34	1	6%	0
COL G. Brindley	1.3	2	0.43	0	16%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.3	0	0.27	1	11%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.3	0	0.48	0	21%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.2	2	0.24	0	3%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.2	0	0.43	0	15%	0
NYI A. Romanov	1.1	2	0.22	0	4%	0
NYI M. Shabanov	1.1	2	0.29	0	11%	0
COL S. Girard	1.1	0	0.31	0	5%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.1	1	0.28	0	5%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.0	0	0.29	0	15%	0
NYI C. Ritchie	0.9	0	0.16	0	10%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.8	0	0.18	0	4%	0
COL Z. Bardakov	0.8	0	0.28	0	8%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	0.8	0	0.15	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.