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Game Recap
NYI3
DAL2
NYI beat DAL 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 1.96 expected goals to 2.94. J. Robertson led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. Heiskanen had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. D. Rittich stopped 22 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| DAL | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
- 2nd 10:31NYIC. Ritchie0.19 xG
- 2nd 12:26DALJ. Robertson0.16 xG
- 3rd 3:12NYIB. Horvat0.26 xG
- 3rd 7:38NYIK. PalmieriSH0.09 xG
- 3rd 18:01DALJ. Robertson0.17 xG
Team Stats
NYIDAL
22Shots on goal24
1.96Expected goals2.94
38Shot attempts56
195v5 shots on goal16
0/2Power play0/3
17Hits16
16Blocked shots6
16Penalty minutes19
16Giveaways7
8Takeaways1
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYI 1.96 xGDAL 2.94 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Palmieri | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:02 | 1:02 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20:10 | 1:05 |
| B. Horvat | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 14 | 14:35 | 0:00 |
| A. Duclair | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:15 | 0:00 |
| C. Ritchie | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:21 | 0:01 |
| M. Barzal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:42 | 1:31 |
| J. Drouin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:55 | 1:28 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:37 | 0:58 |
| J. Pageau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:11 | 0:19 |
| M. Shabanov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:20 | 0:00 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 10:28 | 0:01 |
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:56 | 0:01 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:14 | 0:36 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:38 | 0:01 |
| M. Schaefer | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 21:05 | 1:40 |
| A. Romanov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20:39 | 0:00 |
| A. Pelech | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:31 | 0:17 |
| T. DeAngelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:21 | 0:05 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Rittich | 24 | 22 | 2 | .917 | 60:00 | Win |
| I. Sorokin | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Robertson | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 22:59 | 3:07 |
| T. Seguin | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:21 | 0:20 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 20:31 | 3:07 |
| R. Hintz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:03 | 2:36 |
| W. Johnston | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:42 | 2:41 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:19 | 0:00 |
| J. Hryckowian | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:32 | 0:00 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:20 | 0:14 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 12:27 | 0:00 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:05 | 0:00 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:46 | 0:45 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:52 | 0:00 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 27:21 | 3:07 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:42 | 0:34 |
| A. Petrovic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:43 | 0:00 |
| L. Bichsel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:34 | 0:00 |
| K. Capobianco | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:06 | 0:14 |
| V. Kolyachonok | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:27 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 22 | 19 | 3 | .864 | 57:42 | Loss |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
NYI
Line 1K. Palmieri15:33E. Heineman15:46B. Horvat14:35
Line 3C. Ritchie8:40M. Tsyplakov8:55C. Cizikas9:08
Line 4J. Pageau11:09A. Duclair11:15M. Shabanov12:20
Pair 1S. Mayfield18:23A. Romanov17:28
Pair 2M. Schaefer18:17R. Pulock17:37
Pair 3A. Pelech14:40T. DeAngelo14:25
DAL
Line 1R. Hintz14:18J. Robertson16:19T. Seguin14:12
Line 2M. Rantanen14:24W. Johnston13:36S. Steel12:57
Line 3J. Hryckowian13:32M. Bourque13:06O. Bäck11:49
Line 4C. Blackwell8:19R. Faksa9:27J. Benn9:01
Pair 1A. Petrovic19:46L. Bichsel19:16
Pair 2E. Lindell19:56M. Heiskanen19:50
Pair 3K. Capobianco11:51V. Kolyachonok9:26
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYI 2.8, DAL 3.1 | NYI 3, DAL 2 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | NYI 28.8, DAL 27.4 | NYI 22, DAL 24 |
| Win chance | DAL 55% | NYI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL J. Robertson | 3.1 | 5 | 1.12 | 2 | 37% | 2 |
| NYI B. Horvat | 3.0 | 2 | 0.81 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| NYI M. Schaefer | 2.7 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYI M. Barzal | 2.7 | 2 | 0.90 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| DAL M. Rantanen | 2.6 | 2 | 1.13 | 1 | 36% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.4 | 1 | 0.85 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 2.3 | 3 | 0.65 | 2 | 26% | 1 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 2.2 | 3 | 0.89 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.1 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.1 | 5 | 0.74 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL T. Seguin | 2.0 | 0 | 0.69 | 2 | 27% | 0 |
| NYI T. DeAngelo | 1.6 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYI E. Heineman | 1.5 | 1 | 0.43 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.4 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYI A. Pelech | 1.4 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYI J. Drouin | 1.4 | 0 | 0.72 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NYI A. Romanov | 1.4 | 3 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.3 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.3 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.2 | 3 | 0.27 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI M. Shabanov | 1.2 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.2 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.1 | 3 | 0.32 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL J. Hryckowian | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYI A. Duclair | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| DAL A. Petrovic | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 1.0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI M. Tsyplakov | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYI C. Ritchie | 0.8 | 2 | 0.15 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| DAL L. Bichsel | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL R. Faksa | 0.7 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL V. Kolyachonok | 0.7 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL K. Capobianco | 0.7 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.6 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.