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Game Recap
NYI1
DET2
DET beat NYI 2-1, and the chances backed it up: 2.48 expected goals to 1.49. DET outshot NYI 31 to 23. M. Kasper had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. A. Lyon stopped 22 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| DET | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
- 1st 5:51NYIS. Holmstrom0.07 xG
- 3rd 15:14DETJ. Berggren0.14 xG
- 3rd 19:08DETL. Raymond0.16 xG
Team Stats
NYIDET
23Shots on goal31
1.49Expected goals2.48
49Shot attempts65
205v5 shots on goal25
0/1Power play0/3
25Hits29
18Blocked shots13
6Penalty minutes2
18Giveaways10
2Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYI 1.49 xGDET 2.48 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:53 | 0:53 |
| J. Pageau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:34 | 1:07 |
| B. Horvat | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:11 | 1:07 |
| K. Palmieri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:52 | 0:53 |
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:40 | 0:53 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:27 | 1:07 |
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:21 | 0:53 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:20 | 0:00 |
| P. Engvall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:43 | 0:00 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:04 | 0:00 |
| O. Wahlstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:38 | 1:01 |
| M. Martin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:44 | 0:00 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:55 | 0:00 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 22:37 | 1:07 |
| A. Romanov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 21:00 | 0:00 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 20:56 | 0:06 |
| I. George | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:31 | 0:00 |
| D. Cholowski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:17 | 0:53 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Sorokin | 31 | 29 | 2 | .935 | 59:17 | Loss |
| S. Varlamov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Raymond | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:01 | 3:20 |
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:45 | 3:31 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:19 | 2:41 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:20 | 1:07 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:00 | 3:12 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:26 | 3:36 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:52 | 2:26 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:32 | 1:16 |
| T. Motte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:53 | 0:03 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:43 | 2:42 |
| C. Fischer | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:24 | 0:02 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:40 | 0:00 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:11 | 0:00 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 24:44 | 3:47 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 21:55 | 0:00 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:01 | 0:00 |
| E. Gustafsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:41 | 2:13 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:33 | 0:04 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYI 3.2, DET 3.0 | NYI 1, DET 2 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | NYI 31.3, DET 29.1 | NYI 23, DET 31 |
| Win chance | NYI 53% | DET won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI B. Horvat | 3.0 | 1 | 0.81 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.9 | 1 | 0.91 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| NYI B. Nelson | 2.8 | 2 | 0.84 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.8 | 2 | 0.62 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 2.8 | 2 | 0.75 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.6 | 3 | 0.77 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.5 | 3 | 0.77 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| NYI N. Dobson | 2.5 | 2 | 0.76 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.0 | 3 | 0.82 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.9 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.8 | 3 | 0.58 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| NYI P. Engvall | 1.8 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.7 | 3 | 0.55 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.7 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.6 | 2 | 0.37 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.5 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI M. Tsyplakov | 1.4 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NYI A. Romanov | 1.4 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.4 | 4 | 0.32 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.3 | 0 | 0.47 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| NYI O. Wahlstrom | 1.3 | 3 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET T. Motte | 1.2 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET J. Petry | 1.2 | 3 | 0.37 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET E. Gustafsson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.2 | 1 | 0.42 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.30 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.2 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.2 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DET C. Fischer | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI I. George | 0.8 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI D. Cholowski | 0.7 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.7 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYI M. Martin | 0.7 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.