Game Recap: NYI 2, DET 3, December 16, 2025

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Game Recap

NYI2

FinalTue, Dec 16, 2025Every game that night

DET3

DET beat NYI 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.53 expected goals to 1.15. L. Raymond led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). A. DeBrincat had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.3. J. Gibson stopped 16 of 18.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYI	1	0	1	2
DET	0	0	3	3

1st 4:27NYIE. Heineman0.09 xG
3rd 2:03DETA. Sandin-Pellikka0.07 xG
3rd 3:55DETA. DeBrincatPP0.12 xG
3rd 11:26NYIS. Mayfield0.15 xG
3rd 17:43DETA. DeBrincatPP0.14 xG

Team Stats

NYIDET

18Shots on goal21

1.15Expected goals3.53

51Shot attempts62

175v5 shots on goal19

0/1Power play2/2

16Hits14

21Blocked shots19

4Penalty minutes2

9Giveaways13

3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 1.15 xGDET 3.53 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI17 on goal, 2 scored

DET21 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Barzal	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	22:26	2:00
J. Drouin	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	20:47	2:00
E. Heineman	LW	1	0	1	3	1	5	+1	0	16:57	0:10
A. Lee	LW	0	1	1	3	0	1	+1	0	15:27	0:48
J. Pageau	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	14:58	0:00
M. Shabanov	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	16:15	1:50
A. Duclair	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	15:00	1:02
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	14:42	0:00
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	12:43	0:00
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	11:45	0:00
C. Ritchie	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	11:28	0:00
M. Gatcomb	C	0	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	11:13	0:00
S. Mayfield	D	1	0	1	1	0	3	+1	2	16:14	0:00
M. Schaefer	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	2	25:56	2:00
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	1	1	4	-1	0	22:42	0:10
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	18:59	0:00
T. DeAngelo	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	17:47	0:00
T. Mitchell	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	15:04	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	21	18	3	.857	58:06	Loss
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Raymond	LW	0	3	3	1	2	2	0	0	19:51	1:31
A. DeBrincat	RW	2	0	2	6	1	0	0	0	16:50	1:31
D. Larkin	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	20:55	1:31
E. Finnie	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	17:25	0:00
A. Copp	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	16:51	0:00
M. Rasmussen	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	14:37	0:00
J. Compher	LW	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	14:24	0:00
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	13:45	1:31
J. Leonard	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	13:02	0:00
E. Soderblom	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:43	0:00
M. Kasper	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	10:22	0:00
N. Danielson	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	10:06	0:00
M. Seider	D	0	2	2	0	1	1	-1	0	24:23	1:31
A. Sandin-Pellikka	D	1	0	1	1	0	2	+1	0	17:36	0:00
S. Edvinsson	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	2	25:05	0:00
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	21:04	0:00
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	15:55	0:00
J. Bernard-Docker	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	-1	0	15:06	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Gibson	18	16	2	.889	60:00	Win
C. Talbot	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYI

Line 1J. Drouin16:53M. Barzal18:32E. Heineman16:47

Line 2A. Lee12:57S. Holmstrom13:30J. Pageau13:15

Line 3A. Duclair12:25M. Shabanov12:31C. Ritchie11:28

Line 4K. MacLean11:45M. Gatcomb11:13C. Cizikas12:24

Pair 1R. Pulock21:01M. Schaefer22:02

Pair 2T. DeAngelo17:26A. Pelech17:28

Pair 3S. Mayfield16:14T. Mitchell15:04

DET

Line 1D. Larkin17:32L. Raymond17:31E. Finnie16:17

Line 2A. Copp14:42A. DeBrincat14:35J. Leonard13:02

Line 3J. Compher12:33M. Rasmussen13:28J. Riemsdyk12:14

Line 4E. Soderblom10:43M. Kasper10:22N. Danielson10:06

Pair 1S. Edvinsson23:44M. Seider20:49

Pair 2B. Chiarot19:13A. Sandin-Pellikka17:36

Pair 3J. Bernard-Docker13:54A. Johansson14:34

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYI 2.9, DET 3.1	NYI 2, DET 3
Total goals	6.0	5
Shots on goal	NYI 27.8, DET 30.0	NYI 18, DET 21
Win chance	DET 53%	DET won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DET A. DeBrincat	3.3	6	0.87	2	33%	2
DET D. Larkin	2.9	2	0.90	0	33%	0
NYI M. Schaefer	2.8	1	0.69	0	17%	0
NYI M. Barzal	2.7	1	0.93	1	26%	0
DET L. Raymond	2.4	1	0.90	3	27%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.3	3	0.52	1	23%	0
DET M. Seider	2.2	0	0.55	2	8%	0
DET E. Finnie	1.9	2	0.42	0	18%	0
NYI E. Heineman	1.8	3	0.47	1	23%	1
NYI A. Pelech	1.7	1	0.30	0	4%	0
NYI M. Shabanov	1.6	0	0.53	0	17%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.6	2	0.43	0	8%	0
DET J. Riemsdyk	1.6	0	0.44	0	18%	0
NYI J. Drouin	1.5	1	0.70	1	17%	0
DET A. Copp	1.5	1	0.48	0	16%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.4	1	0.39	0	7%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.4	1	0.47	0	20%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.4	1	0.23	0	7%	0
DET M. Kasper	1.4	2	0.27	0	14%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.3	1	0.35	0	15%	0
DET N. Danielson	1.3	0	0.32	0	11%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	1.3	2	0.36	0	9%	0
NYI C. Ritchie	1.3	0	0.30	0	14%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.3	0	0.47	1	16%	0
DET E. Soderblom	1.2	0	0.26	0	12%	0
DET J. Compher	1.2	0	0.36	0	15%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.2	0	0.49	0	21%	0
NYI M. Gatcomb	1.2	0	0.26	0	16%	0
DET A. Sandin-Pellikka	1.1	1	0.33	1	6%	1
NYI C. Cizikas	1.0	0	0.25	0	10%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	1.0	1	0.18	1	4%	1
DET J. Leonard	1.0	2	0.13	0	8%	0
DET J. Bernard-Docker	0.9	0	0.15	0	3%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.9	2	0.21	0	9%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.7	0	0.13	0	3%	0
NYI T. Mitchell	0.5	1	0.15	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.