EDM beat NYI 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.30 expected goals to 2.06. EDM outshot NYI 42 to 22. C. McDavid led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). E. Bouchard had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. S. Skinner stopped 19 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| EDM | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
- 2nd 0:36EDML. DraisaitlPP0.09 xG
- 2nd 15:58NYIK. Palmieri0.06 xG
- 3rd 0:57EDME. Bouchard0.07 xG
- 3rd 10:19EDMC. McDavid0.14 xG
- 3rd 12:54NYIA. Lee0.28 xG
- 3rd 17:20NYIA. Lee0.23 xG
- OT 1:52EDML. Draisaitl0.42 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYI 2.06 xGEDM 4.30 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Palmieri | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:36 | 2:03 |
| J. Pageau | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:38 | 1:56 |
| A. Lee | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:36 | 1:57 |
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:43 | 2:00 |
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:23 | 1:58 |
| B. Horvat | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:16 | 2:04 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:57 | 1:32 |
| P. Engvall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:17 | 0:00 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 13:48 | 0:00 |
| O. Wahlstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:21 | 1:58 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:10 | 0:00 |
| M. Martin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:00 | 0:00 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 27:07 | 1:16 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 24:36 | 2:22 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 22:37 | 0:13 |
| I. George | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:52 | 0:00 |
| D. Cholowski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:46 | 0:41 |
| G. Hutton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:23 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Sorokin | 42 | 38 | 4 | .905 | 61:45 | OT loss |
| S. Varlamov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. McDavid | C | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:55 | 2:18 |
| L. Draisaitl | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:05 | 2:18 |
| R. Nugent-Hopkins | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:39 | 2:18 |
| Z. Hyman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:58 | 2:18 |
| M. Janmark | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:11 | 0:00 |
| V. Arvidsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:04 | 0:00 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:38 | 0:00 |
| A. Henrique | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 13:16 | 0:19 |
| C. Brown | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:01 | 0:00 |
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:50 | 0:20 |
| D. Ryan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:32 | 0:00 |
| J. Skinner | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:53 | 0:19 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 24:35 | 2:18 |
| M. Ekholm | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 24:38 | 0:00 |
| D. Nurse | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:27 | 0:19 |
| B. Kulak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:54 | 0:00 |
| T. Stecher | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:30 | 0:19 |
| T. Emberson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:34 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Skinner | 22 | 19 | 3 | .864 | 61:51 | Win |
| C. Pickard | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYI 2.7, EDM 3.4 | NYI 3, EDM 4 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | NYI 26.3, EDM 33.0 | NYI 22, EDM 42 |
| Win chance | EDM 61% | EDM won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM Z. Hyman | 3.0 | 2 | 0.81 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| EDM C. McDavid | 2.9 | 8 | 1.40 | 4 | 35% | 1 |
| NYI B. Horvat | 2.7 | 1 | 0.73 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| EDM V. Arvidsson | 2.7 | 2 | 0.66 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 2.6 | 8 | 0.90 | 3 | 15% | 1 |
| EDM L. Draisaitl | 2.6 | 2 | 1.28 | 2 | 41% | 2 |
| NYI B. Nelson | 2.6 | 1 | 0.76 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 2.5 | 2 | 0.65 | 2 | 26% | 1 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.4 | 2 | 0.52 | 2 | 24% | 2 |
| EDM J. Skinner | 2.4 | 1 | 0.60 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| EDM M. Ekholm | 2.3 | 6 | 0.56 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| EDM D. Nurse | 2.3 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYI N. Dobson | 2.2 | 2 | 0.68 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins | 1.9 | 2 | 0.80 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| EDM C. Brown | 1.6 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYI P. Engvall | 1.5 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.5 | 2 | 0.46 | 2 | 17% | 0 |
| EDM B. Kulak | 1.4 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| EDM A. Henrique | 1.4 | 5 | 0.47 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 1.4 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.3 | 3 | 0.35 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| NYI M. Tsyplakov | 1.2 | 3 | 0.49 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| EDM C. Perry | 1.1 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NYI O. Wahlstrom | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.0 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| EDM T. Emberson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| EDM T. Stecher | 0.9 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| EDM M. Janmark | 0.9 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYI G. Hutton | 0.9 | 1 | 0.08 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 0.9 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| EDM D. Ryan | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.7 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYI M. Martin | 0.7 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI D. Cholowski | 0.5 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.