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Game Recap
NYI1
EDM0
NYI beat EDM 1-0 despite fewer good chances: 3.31 expected goals to 5.07. EDM outshot NYI 35 to 18. E. Bouchard had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. I. Sorokin stopped 35 of 35.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| EDM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- 3rd 13:42NYIA. DuclairPP0.21 xG
Team Stats
NYIEDM
18Shots on goal35
3.31Expected goals5.07
41Shot attempts75
155v5 shots on goal30
1/1Power play0/2
15Hits16
16Blocked shots8
4Penalty minutes2
15Giveaways16
6Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYI 3.31 xGEDM 5.07 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Barzal | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:52 | 1:42 |
| A. Duclair | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:25 | 0:28 |
| C. Ritchie | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:30 | 1:42 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:34 | 1:14 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:46 | 0:00 |
| J. Pageau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:10 | 0:00 |
| J. Drouin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:16 | 0:00 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:12 | 1:42 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:14 | 0:00 |
| M. Shabanov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:01 | 0:00 |
| M. Gatcomb | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:40 | 0:00 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:33 | 0:00 |
| M. Schaefer | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 26:35 | 1:42 |
| A. Pelech | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 24:06 | 0:00 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:24 | 0:00 |
| T. DeAngelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:41 | 0:00 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:27 | 0:00 |
| A. Boqvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11:34 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Sorokin | 35 | 35 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| D. Rittich | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. McDavid | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25:33 | 3:39 |
| L. Draisaitl | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 24:40 | 3:39 |
| Z. Hyman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:17 | 3:39 |
| R. Nugent-Hopkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:48 | 3:36 |
| K. Kapanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:12 | 0:00 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:09 | 0:00 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:01 | 0:21 |
| M. Savoie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:30 | 0:21 |
| I. Howard | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:08 | 0:21 |
| M. Janmark | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:03 | 0:00 |
| T. Frederic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:47 | 0:00 |
| C. Lazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:46 | 0:00 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 26:03 | 3:39 |
| M. Ekholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:55 | 0:24 |
| D. Nurse | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:43 | 0:00 |
| T. Emberson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:00 | 0:00 |
| J. Walman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:41 | 0:21 |
| S. Stastney | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:42 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
NYI
Line 1A. Duclair16:57M. Barzal18:03A. Lee16:41
Line 2J. Drouin14:40S. Holmstrom14:41J. Pageau13:31
Line 3E. Heineman11:38M. Shabanov11:01C. Ritchie9:48
Line 4C. Cizikas11:12M. Gatcomb9:40K. MacLean9:33
Pair 1A. Pelech21:23T. DeAngelo20:41
Pair 2M. Schaefer21:27R. Pulock17:34
Pair 3S. Mayfield13:06A. Boqvist11:34
EDM
Line 1Z. Hyman16:58C. McDavid19:36R. Nugent-Hopkins13:34
Line 2K. Kapanen16:12V. Podkolzin15:09L. Draisaitl19:21
Line 3J. Roslovic11:42I. Howard9:47M. Savoie9:03
Line 4M. Janmark8:59C. Lazar8:46T. Frederic8:47
Pair 1M. Ekholm19:32E. Bouchard19:28
Pair 2D. Nurse18:43T. Emberson16:57
Pair 3J. Walman16:20S. Stastney14:16
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYI 2.9, EDM 3.4 | NYI 1, EDM 0 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 1 |
| Shots on goal | NYI 26.7, EDM 30.6 | NYI 18, EDM 35 |
| Win chance | EDM 57% | NYI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM C. McDavid | 3.7 | 5 | 1.59 | 0 | 39% | 0 |
| EDM Z. Hyman | 3.0 | 4 | 0.83 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| EDM L. Draisaitl | 3.0 | 1 | 1.36 | 0 | 43% | 0 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 2.9 | 6 | 1.01 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NYI M. Barzal | 2.5 | 2 | 0.89 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.3 | 3 | 0.52 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| NYI E. Heineman | 2.3 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| EDM D. Nurse | 2.1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins | 2.1 | 0 | 0.82 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| NYI M. Schaefer | 2.1 | 3 | 0.55 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| EDM M. Ekholm | 1.9 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| EDM J. Roslovic | 1.8 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| EDM J. Walman | 1.7 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYI T. DeAngelo | 1.7 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| EDM K. Kapanen | 1.5 | 4 | 0.38 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 1.5 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NYI A. Pelech | 1.4 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI A. Duclair | 1.4 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| NYI C. Ritchie | 1.3 | 0 | 0.35 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.3 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NYI J. Drouin | 1.2 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.2 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| EDM M. Savoie | 1.2 | 4 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| EDM I. Howard | 1.2 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI M. Shabanov | 1.2 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.1 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI M. Gatcomb | 1.1 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| EDM S. Stastney | 1.0 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| EDM T. Frederic | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| EDM T. Emberson | 0.8 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| EDM M. Janmark | 0.7 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYI A. Boqvist | 0.7 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| EDM C. Lazar | 0.6 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.