Game Recap: NYI 1, FLA 4, December 7, 2025

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Game Recap

NYI1

FinalSun, Dec 7, 2025Every game that night

FLA4

FLA beat NYI 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.67 expected goals to 1.95. FLA outshot NYI 30 to 21. S. Reinhart led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. Tarasov stopped 20 of 21.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYI	0	1	0	1
FLA	1	1	2	4

1st 12:14FLAU. Balinskis0.01 xG
2nd 7:05FLAC. Verhaeghe0.12 xG
2nd 9:03NYIM. Barzal0.06 xG
3rd 13:57FLAS. Jones0.13 xG
3rd 17:06FLAS. ReinhartEN0.94 xG

Team Stats

NYIFLA

21Shots on goal30

1.95Expected goals3.67

55Shot attempts62

185v5 shots on goal26

0/1Power play0/1

23Hits18

16Blocked shots16

6Penalty minutes6

13Giveaways11

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 1.95 xGFLA 3.67 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI21 on goal, 1 scored

FLA30 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Barzal	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	-1	0	17:21	1:31
B. Horvat	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	-3	0	19:10	1:31
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	3	5	1	-1	0	16:38	0:23
M. Shabanov	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	16:22	1:31
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	14:26	0:00
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	14:13	0:29
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	13:40	0:29
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	13:34	0:00
C. Ritchie	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	13:33	0:29
M. Gatcomb	C	0	0	0	2	5	1	0	0	13:10	0:00
A. Duclair	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	12:20	1:31
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	0	11:22	0:00
M. Schaefer	D	0	1	1	2	0	3	-1	2	22:38	1:31
R. Pulock	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	19:55	0:00
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	23:07	0:06
T. DeAngelo	D	0	0	0	2	0	4	-1	0	22:29	0:29
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-2	0	17:14	0:00
T. Mitchell	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	4	13:26	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Rittich	29	26	3	.897	59:22	Loss
I. Sorokin	0	0	0	–	0:00

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Reinhart	C	1	1	2	2	0	1	+2	0	20:01	1:47
A. Lundell	C	0	1	1	3	1	1	+2	0	18:28	0:13
C. Verhaeghe	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	+1	0	17:34	1:53
A. Greer	LW	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	4	12:36	0:00
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	1	1	3	3	0	+1	0	11:51	0:00
B. Marchand	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	18:33	1:46
S. Bennett	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	17:13	1:50
E. Rodrigues	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	16:05	0:14
E. Luostarinen	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	14:47	0:07
N. Gregor	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	10:09	0:00
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	9:21	0:00
J. Studnicka	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	9:05	0:00
S. Jones	D	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	0	21:23	1:06
G. Forsling	D	0	1	1	1	2	2	0	0	19:56	0:10
J. Petry	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	+2	0	17:57	0:00
U. Balinskis	D	1	0	1	3	1	0	+2	0	17:30	0:00
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	+1	0	21:57	0:00
A. Ekblad	D	0	0	0	2	0	5	0	0	19:34	0:54

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Tarasov	21	20	1	.952	60:00	Win
S. Bobrovsky	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYI

Line 1B. Horvat14:34E. Heineman14:11M. Shabanov13:48

Line 2K. MacLean14:26M. Gatcomb13:10C. Cizikas12:42

Line 3A. Lee12:17M. Barzal12:53M. Tsyplakov11:22

Line 4A. Duclair10:36C. Ritchie12:32S. Holmstrom10:48

Pair 1A. Pelech20:39T. DeAngelo20:08

Pair 2M. Schaefer17:48R. Pulock16:55

Pair 3S. Mayfield15:24T. Mitchell12:37

FLA

Line 1S. Reinhart14:42A. Lundell15:00E. Luostarinen13:57

Line 2B. Marchand14:18S. Bennett13:46C. Verhaeghe15:28

Line 3E. Rodrigues15:02A. Greer12:34M. Samoskevich11:51

Line 4N. Gregor9:44J. Studnicka8:40J. Boqvist8:58

Pair 1J. Petry17:32U. Balinskis16:58

Pair 2S. Jones17:23N. Mikkola19:01

Pair 3G. Forsling16:34A. Ekblad15:22

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYI 2.7, FLA 3.1	NYI 1, FLA 4
Total goals	5.7	5
Shots on goal	NYI 27.2, FLA 29.7	NYI 21, FLA 30
Win chance	FLA 56%	FLA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
FLA S. Bennett	3.0	4	0.79	0	31%	0
FLA B. Marchand	3.0	1	0.99	0	34%	0
NYI B. Horvat	2.9	3	0.76	0	32%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	2.9	2	1.01	2	40%	1
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.8	3	0.85	1	31%	1
NYI M. Schaefer	2.7	2	0.62	1	14%	0
NYI M. Barzal	2.4	1	0.81	1	23%	1
FLA A. Lundell	2.3	3	0.69	1	22%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.3	3	0.50	0	23%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	2.2	0	0.51	0	20%	0
FLA M. Samoskevich	2.1	3	0.43	1	16%	0
FLA S. Jones	2.0	2	0.51	1	11%	1
FLA G. Forsling	1.7	1	0.38	1	9%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.7	2	0.41	0	7%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.7	2	0.43	0	9%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.6	2	0.27	0	3%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.6	1	0.52	0	16%	0
NYI E. Heineman	1.6	3	0.43	0	21%	0
FLA A. Greer	1.6	0	0.34	1	15%	0
NYI M. Shabanov	1.5	1	0.47	0	16%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.3	1	0.33	1	5%	0
NYI C. Ritchie	1.3	0	0.25	0	13%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.3	1	0.21	0	5%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.2	0	0.34	0	17%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	1.1	0	0.32	0	14%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.1	0	0.42	0	19%	0
FLA J. Studnicka	1.0	2	0.13	0	7%	0
NYI M. Gatcomb	1.0	2	0.23	0	14%	0
FLA N. Gregor	1.0	0	0.14	0	8%	0
FLA U. Balinskis	1.0	3	0.18	1	4%	1
NYI S. Mayfield	0.9	0	0.16	0	3%	0
NYI M. Tsyplakov	0.9	0	0.22	0	8%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	0.8	1	0.20	0	8%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.8	0	0.16	0	8%	0
FLA J. Petry	0.7	2	0.20	1	3%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.