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Game Recap
NYI1
LAK4
LAK beat NYI 4-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.94 expected goals to 3.70. K. Palmieri had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. D. Kuemper stopped 33 of 34.
Team Stats
NYILAK
34Shots on goal32
3.70Expected goals2.94
70Shot attempts51
155v5 shots on goal23
0/8Power play0/1
25Hits19
11Blocked shots20
2Penalty minutes16
17Giveaways18
3Takeaways1
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYI 3.70 xGLAK 2.94 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lee | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:57 | 6:43 |
| J. Pageau | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:00 | 4:30 |
| B. Horvat | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 24:41 | 10:22 |
| K. Palmieri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 23:35 | 10:11 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:30 | 9:46 |
| A. Duclair | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:52 | 6:54 |
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:29 | 4:44 |
| H. Fasching | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:37 | 0:05 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:21 | 0:00 |
| P. Engvall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:21 | 0:00 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:06 | 0:44 |
| M. Gatcomb | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:14 | 0:44 |
| A. Pelech | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:00 | 0:08 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:56 | 10:18 |
| T. DeAngelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 24:55 | 5:51 |
| A. Romanov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 19:51 | 0:12 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:17 | 3:44 |
| A. Boqvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:51 | 1:04 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Sorokin | 31 | 28 | 3 | .903 | 56:27 | Loss |
| M. Hogberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Danault | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 19:30 | 0:49 |
| A. Kopitar | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:16 | 1:04 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 18:13 | 0:56 |
| W. Foegele | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 2 | 17:43 | 0:53 |
| T. Moore | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 17:00 | 0:48 |
| A. Kempe | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:35 | 1:12 |
| A. Laferriere | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12:22 | 0:00 |
| K. Fiala | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:12 | 1:07 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 11:54 | 1:11 |
| T. Jeannot | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:54 | 0:00 |
| S. Helenius | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:51 | 0:00 |
| A. Turcotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7:38 | 0:00 |
| D. Doughty | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 24:36 | 1:09 |
| V. Gavrikov | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +4 | 2 | 22:04 | 0:00 |
| J. Spence | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 9:12 | 0:00 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 29:09 | 0:00 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 18:55 | 0:00 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:32 | 0:51 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Kuemper | 34 | 33 | 1 | .971 | 59:24 | Win |
| D. Rittich | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYI 2.7, LAK 2.9 | NYI 1, LAK 4 |
| Total goals | 5.6 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | NYI 26.0, LAK 29.5 | NYI 34, LAK 32 |
| Win chance | LAK 55% | LAK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK A. Kempe | 2.9 | 3 | 0.87 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| LAK K. Fiala | 2.9 | 2 | 0.84 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| NYI B. Horvat | 2.7 | 5 | 0.68 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| LAK W. Foegele | 2.5 | 2 | 0.57 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.5 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| LAK T. Moore | 2.2 | 3 | 0.56 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.2 | 4 | 0.52 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 2.1 | 1 | 0.69 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| NYI N. Dobson | 2.1 | 3 | 0.52 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 2.0 | 5 | 0.58 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| NYI T. DeAngelo | 1.8 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| LAK P. Danault | 1.8 | 2 | 0.59 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| LAK D. Doughty | 1.6 | 2 | 0.61 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| LAK A. Kuzmenko | 1.5 | 3 | 0.65 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| NYI A. Duclair | 1.5 | 3 | 0.47 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.4 | 1 | 0.76 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.4 | 2 | 0.46 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| NYI A. Pelech | 1.4 | 0 | 0.29 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK V. Gavrikov | 1.3 | 2 | 0.33 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.3 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 1.3 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.2 | 4 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI A. Romanov | 1.2 | 3 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI M. Tsyplakov | 1.1 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.1 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| LAK A. Turcotte | 1.0 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI A. Boqvist | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYI P. Engvall | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| LAK J. Spence | 0.9 | 0 | 0.27 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| LAK T. Jeannot | 0.8 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI H. Fasching | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.7 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYI M. Gatcomb | 0.7 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| LAK S. Helenius | 0.6 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.