Game Recap: NYI 5, LAK 2, November 12, 2026

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Game Recap

NYI5

FinalThu, Nov 12, 2026Every game that night

LAK2

NYI beat LAK 5-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.23 expected goals to 2.96. B. Schenn led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). T. Moore had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. I. Sorokin stopped 26 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYI	2	1	2	5
LAK	1	1	0	2

1st 5:50NYIB. Schenn0.30 xG
1st 8:55LAKT. Moore0.07 xG
1st 12:56NYIM. SchaeferPP0.04 xG
2nd 5:35NYIV. Eklund0.21 xG
2nd 7:52LAKQ. ByfieldPP0.35 xG
3rd 0:39NYIS. Holmstrom0.10 xG
3rd 17:14NYIB. HorvatEN0.74 xG

Team Stats

NYILAK

21Shots on goal28

2.23Expected goals2.96

36Shot attempts69

195v5 shots on goal23

1/3Power play1/3

9Hits33

23Blocked shots9

11Penalty minutes11

9Giveaways9

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 2.23 xGLAK 2.96 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI20 on goal, 5 scored

LAK28 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Schenn	C	1	2	3	2	1	0	+1	0	19:41	2:38
S. Holmstrom	RW	1	1	2	2	1	1	+2	0	17:34	0:00
B. Horvat	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	+2	0	25:41	2:23
V. Eklund	RW	1	0	1	2	1	2	+1	0	14:53	2:23
M. Maccelli	LW	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	13:46	2:41
M. Chaffee	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	2	8:35	0:11
K. Palmieri	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	+2	0	17:03	0:14
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	17:03	0:00
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	0	15:52	0:07
A. Duclair	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:55	0:20
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:19	0:00
R. Pulock	D	0	2	2	2	0	2	+4	0	19:22	0:00
M. Schaefer	D	1	0	1	3	1	3	0	0	27:02	2:23
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	1	1	4	0	0	21:57	0:00
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+4	2	19:27	0:05
T. DeAngelo	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	5	14:03	0:00
B. Hutton	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:19	0:25
M. Kessel	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	3:44	0:10

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	28	26	2	.929	59:55	Win
S. Varlamov	0	0	0	–	0:00

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Panarin	LW	0	1	1	5	0	0	-2	0	20:25	3:21
Q. Byfield	RW	1	0	1	3	2	0	-1	2	19:59	3:21
K. Fiala	LW	0	1	1	0	3	0	-1	0	16:37	3:21
T. Moore	LW	1	0	1	5	1	0	0	0	16:25	0:00
J. Armia	RW	0	1	1	0	4	0	+1	0	12:16	0:00
A. Laferriere	RW	0	0	0	1	10	1	-3	2	19:58	3:21
A. Kempe	RW	0	0	0	3	3	0	-1	2	18:58	3:16
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	17:03	0:00
M. Zuccarello	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	13:15	0:00
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	10:23	0:00
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	9:16	0:00
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	5	7:58	0:00
B. Clarke	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	-1	0	22:22	0:05
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	+1	0	21:18	0:00
D. Doughty	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	19:23	0:00
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	0	2	4	-1	0	18:14	0:00
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	16:46	0:00
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	15:22	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Kuemper	20	16	4	.800	59:39	Loss
A. Forsberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYI

Line 1K. Palmieri16:28B. Horvat19:48S. Holmstrom14:10

Line 2E. Heineman14:45B. Schenn16:29V. Eklund12:30

Line 3C. Cizikas15:51A. Duclair13:35O. Palat12:19

Line 4M. Maccelli11:00M. Chaffee8:08

Pair 1M. Schaefer21:54L. Stanley19:49

Pair 2A. Pelech16:56R. Pulock17:06

Pair 3B. Hutton10:45T. DeAngelo14:03

LAK

Line 1E. Haula15:28T. Moore15:08J. Armia12:16

Line 2A. Panarin15:37A. Laferriere15:12A. Kempe15:42

Line 3K. Fiala12:50Q. Byfield14:28M. Zuccarello13:10

Line 4S. Laughton8:46A. Lee8:53C. Perry7:58

Pair 1B. Clarke21:07B. Dumoulin19:44

Pair 2D. Doughty17:01M. Anderson15:51

Pair 3J. Edmundson15:28C. Ceci14:31

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

10 of 17 overs hit (59%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
LAK A. Kempe	2.5	-120	+105	3	Over
LAK A. Laferriere	2.5	-129	+105	1	Under
LAK A. Panarin	2.5	-150	+121	5	Over
NYI B. Horvat	2.5	-160	+125	2	Under
LAK K. Fiala	2.5	-110	-115	0	Under
NYI M. Schaefer	2.5	-140	+115	3	Over
LAK Q. Byfield	2.5	+120	-140	3	Over
LAK B. Clarke	1.5	+105	-125	2	Over
NYI B. Schenn	1.5	-120	+115	2	Over
LAK C. Perry	1.5	+120	-140	0	Under
NYI E. Heineman	1.5	-122	+100	1	Under
NYI K. Palmieri	1.5	-168	+145	2	Over
LAK M. Zuccarello	1.5	+135	-150	1	Under
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.5	-135	+125	2	Over
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.5	+120	-160	0	Under
LAK T. Moore	1.5	-130	+109	5	Over
NYI V. Eklund	1.5	-105	-105	2	Over

7 of 36 overs hit (19%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
NYI A. Duclair	0.5	+500	-700	0	Under
LAK A. Kempe	0.5	+195	-250	0	Under
LAK A. Laferriere	0.5	+255	-350	0	Under
LAK A. Lee	0.5	+1100	-1600	0	Under
LAK A. Panarin	0.5	+175	-230	0	Under
NYI A. Pelech	0.5	+1600	-2800	0	Under
LAK B. Clarke	0.5	+700	-1600	0	Under
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.5	+2200	-5000	0	Under
NYI B. Horvat	0.5	+180	-220	1	Over
NYI B. Hutton	0.5	+2000	-4000	0	Under
NYI B. Schenn	0.5	+300	-400	1	Over
LAK C. Ceci	0.5	+2500	-4000	0	Under
NYI C. Cizikas	0.5	+700	-1400	0	Under
LAK C. Perry	0.5	+475	-750	0	Under
LAK D. Doughty	0.5	+1300	-2800	0	Under
LAK E. Haula	0.5	+525	-800	0	Under
NYI E. Heineman	0.5	+400	-600	0	Under
LAK J. Armia	0.5	+600	-1200	0	Under
LAK J. Edmundson	0.5	+1450	-2800	0	Under
LAK K. Fiala	0.5	+285	-390	0	Under
NYI K. Palmieri	0.5	+290	-390	0	Under
NYI L. Stanley	0.5	+1800	-2800	0	Under
LAK M. Anderson	0.5	+1900	-4000	0	Under
NYI M. Chaffee	0.5	+850	–	0	Under
NYI M. Kessel	0.5	+1000	-4000	0	Under
NYI M. Maccelli	0.5	+475	-700	0	Under
NYI M. Schaefer	0.5	+340	-600	1	Over
LAK M. Zuccarello	0.5	+450	-500	0	Under
NYI O. Palat	0.5	+750	-2500	0	Under
LAK Q. Byfield	0.5	+240	-320	1	Over
NYI R. Pulock	0.5	+1700	-3500	0	Under
NYI S. Holmstrom	0.5	+275	-400	1	Over
LAK S. Laughton	0.5	+650	-900	0	Under
NYI T. DeAngelo	0.5	+1100	-2500	0	Under
LAK T. Moore	0.5	+500	-700	1	Over
NYI V. Eklund	0.5	+340	-600	1	Over

5 of 16 overs hit (31%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
LAK A. Kempe	0.5	+130	-162	0	Under
LAK A. Laferriere	0.5	+150	-190	0	Under
LAK A. Panarin	0.5	-106	-115	1	Over
LAK B. Clarke	0.5	+180	-218	1	Over
NYI B. Horvat	0.5	+164	-200	0	Under
NYI B. Schenn	0.5	+175	-197	2	Over
LAK D. Doughty	0.5	+230	-400	0	Under
LAK K. Fiala	0.5	+142	-165	1	Over
NYI K. Palmieri	0.5	+215	-295	0	Under
NYI M. Schaefer	0.5	-104	-120	0	Under
LAK M. Zuccarello	0.5	+160	-190	0	Under
LAK Q. Byfield	0.5	+165	-200	0	Under
NYI S. Holmstrom	0.5	+180	-200	1	Over
NYI T. DeAngelo	0.5	+260	-300	0	Under
LAK T. Moore	0.5	+320	-650	0	Under
NYI V. Eklund	0.5	+280	-350	0	Under

10 of 16 overs hit (63%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
LAK A. Kempe	0.5	-155	+135	0	Under
LAK A. Laferriere	0.5	-125	+105	0	Under
LAK A. Panarin	0.5	-235	+190	1	Over
LAK B. Clarke	0.5	+145	-159	1	Over
NYI B. Horvat	0.5	-155	+130	1	Over
NYI B. Schenn	0.5	-118	+100	3	Over
LAK D. Doughty	0.5	+190	-260	0	Under
LAK K. Fiala	0.5	-130	+105	1	Over
NYI K. Palmieri	0.5	+105	-130	0	Under
NYI M. Schaefer	0.5	-160	+130	1	Over
LAK M. Zuccarello	0.5	+100	-120	0	Under
LAK Q. Byfield	0.5	-120	+100	1	Over
NYI S. Holmstrom	0.5	-110	+105	2	Over
NYI T. DeAngelo	0.5	+200	-235	0	Under
LAK T. Moore	0.5	+180	-250	1	Over
NYI V. Eklund	0.5	+150	-155	1	Over

5 of 13 overs hit (38%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
LAK A. Kempe	0.5	+250	-275	0	Under
LAK A. Laferriere	0.5	+270	-350	0	Under
LAK A. Panarin	0.5	+200	-225	1	Over
NYI B. Horvat	0.5	+270	-375	0	Under
NYI B. Schenn	0.5	+280	-325	1	Over
LAK K. Fiala	0.5	+250	-290	1	Over
NYI K. Palmieri	0.5	+380	-550	0	Under
NYI M. Schaefer	0.5	+195	-275	1	Over
LAK M. Zuccarello	0.5	+310	-375	0	Under
LAK Q. Byfield	0.5	+275	-350	1	Over
NYI S. Holmstrom	0.5	+300	-400	0	Under
NYI T. DeAngelo	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
NYI V. Eklund	0.5	+475	-750	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
NYI I. Sorokin	24.5	-130	+100	26	Over
LAK D. Kuemper	22.5	-120	+100	16	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
NYI L. Stanley	1.5	-135	-105	4	Over
NYI M. Schaefer	1.5	-110	-125	3	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

MilestoneDarcy Kuemper LAK Plays his 500th game16 saves on 20
MilestoneKevin Fiala LAK 1 assist from 300Got there: 1 A, 0 SOG
MilestoneMatthew Schaefer NYI Plays his 100th game1 G, 3 SOG
MilestoneQuinton Byfield LAK 3 points from 200Not yet: 1 G, 3 SOG
MilestoneTony DeAngelo NYI Plays his 500th game0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYI 2.8, LAK 3.0	NYI 5, LAK 2
Total goals	5.8	7
Shots on goal	NYI 26.4, LAK 28.7	NYI 21, LAK 28
Win chance	LAK 53%	NYI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYI B. Horvat	3.1	2	0.85	1	33%	1
NYI M. Schaefer	3.0	3	0.82	1	22%	1
LAK A. Panarin	2.9	5	1.11	1	34%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.9	1	0.68	0	26%	0
LAK A. Kempe	2.8	3	0.90	0	35%	0
LAK K. Fiala	2.7	0	0.79	1	31%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	2.5	3	0.68	1	26%	1
NYI K. Palmieri	2.1	2	0.60	0	24%	0
LAK T. Moore	1.9	5	0.42	1	18%	1
LAK M. Zuccarello	1.9	1	0.73	0	20%	0
NYI E. Heineman	1.7	1	0.36	0	18%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.7	2	0.64	2	24%	1
NYI B. Schenn	1.6	2	0.61	3	22%	1
NYI V. Eklund	1.6	2	0.50	1	20%	1
LAK E. Haula	1.6	0	0.41	0	17%	0
LAK B. Clarke	1.5	2	0.42	1	7%	0
LAK C. Perry	1.4	0	0.37	0	18%	0
LAK J. Armia	1.3	0	0.32	1	14%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.3	0	0.36	0	7%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.3	0	0.41	0	17%	0
NYI L. Stanley	1.2	1	0.35	0	7%	0
LAK S. Laughton	1.2	1	0.26	0	12%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.2	1	0.24	0	5%	0
LAK D. Doughty	1.2	2	0.42	0	7%	0
NYI B. Hutton	1.1	0	0.20	0	5%	0
NYI M. Maccelli	1.1	1	0.46	1	13%	0
NYI O. Palat	1.1	1	0.31	0	13%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.1	0	0.24	0	11%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.0	0	0.20	0	3%	0
LAK A. Lee	1.0	2	0.24	0	10%	0
NYI R. Pulock	0.8	2	0.20	2	4%	0
LAK M. Anderson	0.8	0	0.26	0	4%	0
NYI M. Chaffee	0.8	1	0.17	1	9%	0
LAK C. Ceci	0.7	1	0.16	0	3%	0
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.7	2	0.22	0	4%	0
NYI M. Kessel	0.7	0	0.15	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.