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Game Recap
NYI3
MIN6
MIN beat NYI 6-3 despite fewer good chances: 2.92 expected goals to 3.78. M. Boldy led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). Y. Trenin had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. F. Gustavsson stopped 32 of 35.
Team Stats
NYIMIN
35Shots on goal33
3.78Expected goals2.92
66Shot attempts68
265v5 shots on goal25
0/2Power play1/2
17Hits13
21Blocked shots12
4Penalty minutes4
14Giveaways13
3Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYI 3.78 xGMIN 2.92 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Nelson | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:05 | 2:09 |
| K. Palmieri | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:38 | 2:09 |
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:00 | 2:09 |
| A. Lee | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:17 | 1:51 |
| B. Horvat | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:30 | 1:51 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:49 | 1:48 |
| J. Pageau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:10 | 0:00 |
| A. Duclair | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:18 | 1:51 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13:58 | 0:00 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:44 | 0:00 |
| M. Gatcomb | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:05 | 0:00 |
| P. Engvall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:56 | 0:00 |
| S. Perunovich | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 2 | 24:39 | 2:09 |
| A. Romanov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 27:06 | 0:03 |
| A. Pelech | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:42 | 0:00 |
| T. DeAngelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 21:42 | 1:51 |
| A. Boqvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:32 | 2:09 |
| D. Cholowski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2:52 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Sorokin | 32 | 28 | 5 | .875 | 59:14 | Loss |
| J. Skarek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Boldy | LW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:47 | 3:35 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:58 | 0:00 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:45 | 0:09 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:44 | 0:00 |
| M. Rossi | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 16:45 | 3:34 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:44 | 0:00 |
| L. Ohgren | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:56 | 0:24 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:54 | 0:09 |
| V. Hinostroza | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:41 | 3:19 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:38 | 3:34 |
| D. Shore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:33 | 0:00 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:29 | 0:03 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:25 | 3:40 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:42 | 0:00 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 19:38 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:35 | 0:00 |
| J. Merrill | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:21 | 0:00 |
| D. Chisholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4:25 | 0:08 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 35 | 32 | 3 | .914 | 60:00 | Win |
| M. Fleury | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYI 2.6, MIN 2.8 | NYI 3, MIN 6 |
| Total goals | 5.4 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | NYI 28.6, MIN 28.6 | NYI 35, MIN 33 |
| Win chance | MIN 54% | MIN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.4 | 4 | 0.88 | 3 | 31% | 2 |
| NYI B. Horvat | 2.9 | 2 | 0.69 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.7 | 6 | 0.60 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| NYI T. DeAngelo | 2.6 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.5 | 3 | 0.94 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| NYI B. Nelson | 2.5 | 9 | 0.68 | 2 | 30% | 1 |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 2.0 | 3 | 0.56 | 2 | 23% | 1 |
| NYI A. Pelech | 1.9 | 3 | 0.34 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.8 | 2 | 0.43 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 1.8 | 2 | 0.63 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| NYI A. Romanov | 1.8 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.6 | 1 | 0.40 | 2 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.6 | 2 | 0.42 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| NYI A. Duclair | 1.6 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.6 | 3 | 0.48 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN L. Ohgren | 1.5 | 0 | 0.27 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.5 | 0 | 0.35 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.4 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN V. Hinostroza | 1.4 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.3 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYI M. Tsyplakov | 1.3 | 1 | 0.38 | 2 | 13% | 0 |
| NYI A. Boqvist | 1.3 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN D. Chisholm | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.2 | 2 | 0.39 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 1.2 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.2 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.1 | 3 | 0.41 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.1 | 8 | 0.23 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| NYI M. Gatcomb | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYI P. Engvall | 0.9 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN J. Merrill | 0.9 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN D. Shore | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYI S. Perunovich | 0.7 | 1 | 0.31 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| NYI D. Cholowski | 0.7 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN M. Khusnutdinov | 0.6 | 1 | 0.17 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.