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Game Recap
NYI4
MIN3
NYI beat MIN 4-3 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.50 expected goals to 4.00. MIN outshot NYI 36 to 27. S. Holmstrom led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). Q. Hughes had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. I. Sorokin stopped 33 of 36.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| MIN | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 2:51MINB. Jones0.08 xG
- 1st 4:18NYIJ. Pageau0.29 xG
- 1st 15:25MINM. BoldyPP0.17 xG
- 2nd 1:29NYIS. Holmstrom0.08 xG
- 2nd 8:26MINK. Kaprizov0.10 xG
- 2nd 19:34NYIC. CizikasSH0.34 xG
- OT 1:34NYIS. Holmstrom0.12 xG
Team Stats
NYIMIN
27Shots on goal36
2.50Expected goals4.00
60Shot attempts65
225v5 shots on goal29
0/3Power play1/4
15Hits18
9Blocked shots14
8Penalty minutes6
7Giveaways16
2Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYI 2.50 xGMIN 4.00 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 17:40 | 0:39 |
| J. Pageau | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 17:48 | 0:01 |
| J. Drouin | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:43 | 3:18 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:55 | 0:00 |
| M. Barzal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:52 | 4:02 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:11 | 3:16 |
| M. Shabanov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:27 | 0:33 |
| A. Duclair | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:59 | 1:13 |
| C. Ritchie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:20 | 3:23 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:15 | 1:12 |
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 8:42 | 0:03 |
| M. Gatcomb | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:08 | 0:00 |
| T. DeAngelo | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 17:55 | 1:00 |
| M. Schaefer | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 27:41 | 3:37 |
| A. Pelech | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:33 | 0:03 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:14 | 0:35 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 16:59 | 0:00 |
| A. Boqvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:43 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Sorokin | 36 | 33 | 3 | .917 | 61:14 | Win |
| D. Rittich | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:59 | 5:23 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:42 | 5:12 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 19:44 | 4:56 |
| B. Jones | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:17 | 0:00 |
| D. Yurov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 18:16 | 1:12 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 16:15 | 4:38 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 14:25 | 0:58 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14:13 | 0:00 |
| N. Sturm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:57 | 0:00 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:39 | 1:06 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:47 | 0:00 |
| V. Hinostroza | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 7:59 | 0:00 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30:37 | 5:08 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 27:13 | 1:09 |
| D. Hunt | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:55 | 0:00 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 17:43 | 0:07 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 15:44 | 0:56 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:45 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 27 | 24 | 4 | .889 | 61:06 | OT loss |
| J. Wallstedt | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
NYI
Line 1A. Duclair13:34M. Barzal15:14A. Lee11:59
Line 2S. Holmstrom13:38M. Shabanov15:08J. Pageau13:50
Line 3J. Drouin11:09E. Heineman12:37C. Ritchie9:48
Line 4C. Cizikas9:16M. Tsyplakov8:19M. Gatcomb7:08
Pair 1R. Pulock18:22M. Schaefer20:20
Pair 2A. Pelech18:18T. DeAngelo14:22
Pair 3S. Mayfield15:02A. Boqvist8:41
MIN
Line 1M. Zuccarello15:44K. Kaprizov15:36D. Yurov16:34
Line 2M. Foligno11:33N. Sturm11:16V. Tarasenko11:33
Line 3M. Johansson12:10M. Boldy10:50R. Hartman11:24
Line 4B. Jones8:14V. Hinostroza7:46Y. Trenin9:09
Pair 2J. Spurgeon12:52J. Brodin14:15
Pair 3J. Middleton12:27D. Hunt11:36
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYI 2.8, MIN 3.1 | NYI 4, MIN 3 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | NYI 28.0, MIN 29.1 | NYI 27, MIN 36 |
| Win chance | MIN 56% | NYI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 3.8 | 7 | 1.23 | 1 | 45% | 1 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.2 | 6 | 0.95 | 1 | 34% | 1 |
| MIN Q. Hughes | 2.7 | 8 | 1.00 | 3 | 13% | 0 |
| NYI M. Schaefer | 2.6 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NYI M. Barzal | 2.5 | 2 | 0.80 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.3 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.2 | 2 | 0.80 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| NYI E. Heineman | 2.2 | 3 | 0.49 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.1 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NYI T. DeAngelo | 2.0 | 5 | 0.42 | 2 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.8 | 2 | 0.39 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN V. Tarasenko | 1.7 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NYI A. Pelech | 1.7 | 3 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.5 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.4 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI J. Drouin | 1.3 | 0 | 0.55 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| MIN D. Yurov | 1.3 | 3 | 0.43 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYI A. Duclair | 1.3 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.3 | 2 | 0.46 | 3 | 20% | 2 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.3 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYI C. Ritchie | 1.3 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYI M. Shabanov | 1.3 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYI M. Gatcomb | 1.2 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.2 | 1 | 0.39 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.1 | 3 | 0.24 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| NYI M. Tsyplakov | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 1.0 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN N. Sturm | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN V. Hinostroza | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN B. Jones | 0.9 | 2 | 0.05 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| NYI A. Boqvist | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN D. Hunt | 0.5 | 1 | 0.13 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.