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Game Recap
NYI4
Final/OTThu, Oct 29, 2026Every game that night
MIN3

NYI beat MIN 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.83 expected goals to 2.28. M. Schaefer led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). M. Schaefer had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.3. I. Sorokin stopped 22 of 25.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
NYI11114
MIN11103
  1. 1st 0:27MINJ. Eriksson Ek0.08 xG
  2. 1st 16:36NYIM. Schaefer0.29 xG
  3. 2nd 1:41NYIB. HorvatPP0.11 xG
  4. 2nd 17:21MINQ. Hughes0.02 xG
  5. 3rd 7:14NYIA. Pelech0.01 xG
  6. 3rd 16:07MINM. Boldy0.08 xG
  7. OT 0:33NYIM. Schaefer0.15 xG

Team Stats

NYIMIN
26Shots on goal25
2.83Expected goals2.28
57Shot attempts57
235v5 shots on goal21
1/2Power play0/3
30Hits31
15Blocked shots12
6Penalty minutes4
16Giveaways22
4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 2.83 xGMIN 2.28 xGGoal

00.511.522.531st2nd3rdOTMIN goal, 0:27NYI goal, 16:36NYI goal, 1:41MIN goal, 17:21NYI goal, 7:14MIN goal, 16:07NYI goal, 0:33

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI26 on goal, 4 scored
MIN25 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
B. HorvatC101322-1020:571:40
S. HolmstromRW011200+1020:181:43
E. HeinemanLW011240+1017:091:02
J. PageauC0111010215:560:00
V. EklundRW011030+1012:521:01
K. PalmieriC0002310217:031:41
O. PalatLW000031-2015:440:59
B. SchennC000121+2014:181:41
A. DuclairLW000300-1014:071:01
C. CizikasC000210-1011:020:02
K. MacLeanC000050009:020:02
M. ChaffeeRW000030-108:570:02
M. SchaeferD2136120030:012:20
A. PelechD101313-1223:490:02
L. StanleyD000002-1026:160:02
T. DeAngeloD000011+1021:260:22
S. MayfieldD0001110015:510:00
R. PulockD000000000:510:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
I. Sorokin25223.88060:33Win
S. Varlamov000–0:00

MIN Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
K. KaprizovLW0113200021:504:55
M. BoldyLW101400+2021:104:40
J. Eriksson EkC101220+1217:123:29
R. HartmanRW011212+1013:092:15
D. YurovRW000310-1018:021:20
M. ShabanovRW000011-1017:494:11
B. ColemanLW000131+1016:161:20
Y. TreninC000040-1015:040:00
B. BrinkRW000110+1014:481:49
M. McCarronC000321-1012:120:00
N. SturmC000050-1010:040:00
T. PitlickC000030006:410:00
Q. HughesD1124110033:414:43
J. BrodinD011123+1023:360:00
O. MaattaD0001010216:580:01
Z. BogosianD000020-1016:050:00
M. KierstedD0000110013:450:00
D. SpacekD000001+1010:331:17
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Wallstedt26224.84660:33OT loss
C. Pickard000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYI

Line 1B. Horvat16:02S. Holmstrom14:26K. Palmieri15:22
Line 2O. Palat14:37J. Pageau14:05A. Duclair13:06
Line 3B. Schenn12:37V. Eklund11:51E. Heineman14:03
Line 4C. Cizikas9:41K. MacLean8:40M. Chaffee8:55
Pair 1M. Schaefer27:06A. Pelech21:50
Pair 2T. DeAngelo21:00L. Stanley21:44

MIN

Line 1K. Kaprizov16:20M. Boldy15:49J. Ek13:10
Line 2D. Yurov16:17Y. Trenin14:40M. Shabanov13:38
Line 3B. Coleman13:13B. Brink12:59M. McCarron10:53
Line 4R. Hartman10:54N. Sturm9:10T. Pitlick6:41
Pair 1Q. Hughes28:21J. Brodin21:51
Pair 2Z. Bogosian15:07O. Maatta15:58
Pair 3M. Kiersted12:03D. Spacek9:16

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

9 of 15 overs hit (60%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
MIN K. Kaprizov3.5+130-1503Under
MIN M. Boldy3.5-115+1024Over
MIN B. Coleman2.5+140-1551Under
NYI B. Horvat2.5-130+1103Over
MIN J. Ek2.5-150+1202Under
NYI M. Schaefer2.5-150+1256Over
MIN Q. Hughes2.5+115-1404Over
NYI B. Schenn1.5+100-1151Under
NYI E. Heineman1.5+110-1302Over
NYI K. Palmieri1.5-150+1362Over
MIN M. McCarron1.5+115-1403Over
MIN M. Shabanov1.5+115-1450Under
MIN R. Hartman1.5+112-1252Over
NYI S. Holmstrom1.5+105-1202Over
NYI T. DeAngelo1.5+125-1750Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreNYI 2.7, MIN 3.1NYI 4, MIN 3
Total goals5.87
Shots on goalNYI 27.0, MIN 29.3NYI 26, MIN 25
Win chanceMIN 58%NYI won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
MIN M. Boldy3.741.02136%1
NYI M. Schaefer3.360.79321%2
MIN K. Kaprizov3.231.20144%0
NYI B. Horvat3.230.82133%1
MIN J. Ek3.120.75128%1
NYI K. Palmieri2.320.63025%0
MIN Q. Hughes2.341.06213%1
MIN B. Coleman2.210.45021%0
NYI E. Heineman1.820.33118%0
NYI B. Schenn1.710.58021%0
NYI S. Holmstrom1.620.62125%0
NYI T. DeAngelo1.600.3507%0
MIN R. Hartman1.520.37116%0
NYI V. Eklund1.500.33114%0
MIN J. Brodin1.510.3617%0
MIN M. McCarron1.530.27012%0
NYI A. Pelech1.430.2414%1
MIN M. Shabanov1.400.48016%0
NYI L. Stanley1.300.3107%0
MIN D. Yurov1.330.38017%0
NYI A. Duclair1.230.38018%0
MIN B. Brink1.210.38014%0
NYI J. Pageau1.210.42116%0
NYI O. Palat1.100.30014%0
MIN Y. Trenin1.100.24011%0
NYI R. Pulock1.100.2605%0
MIN Z. Bogosian1.000.1904%0
NYI C. Cizikas1.020.2009%0
MIN D. Spacek1.000.1103%0
MIN O. Maatta0.910.3305%0
MIN N. Sturm0.900.22010%0
MIN M. Kiersted0.800.1903%0
NYI S. Mayfield0.810.1603%0
MIN T. Pitlick0.800.1105%0
NYI M. Chaffee0.700.1508%0
NYI K. MacLean0.700.1306%0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.