MTL beat NYI 2-1 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.44 expected goals to 3.53. N. Suzuki led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Xhekaj had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. S. Montembeault stopped 30 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| MTL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYI 3.53 xGMTL 2.44 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lee | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:10 | 4:22 |
| O. Wahlstrom | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:31 | 0:00 |
| B. Horvat | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:59 | 4:25 |
| K. Palmieri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:45 | 4:24 |
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:24 | 4:22 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:48 | 1:38 |
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:47 | 1:38 |
| J. Pageau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:28 | 1:22 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:19 | 0:00 |
| H. Fasching | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:16 | 0:00 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:12 | 0:07 |
| M. Martin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:13 | 0:00 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:40 | 4:48 |
| A. Romanov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:59 | 0:08 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 22:46 | 1:18 |
| I. George | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:31 | 0:00 |
| G. Hutton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:19 | 1:28 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:16 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Sorokin | 27 | 25 | 2 | .926 | 62:39 | OT loss |
| S. Varlamov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Suzuki | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:17 | 1:48 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:26 | 1:47 |
| P. Laine | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:27 | 1:49 |
| K. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:33 | 0:46 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:23 | 1:50 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:17 | 0:47 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:11 | 0:00 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:09 | 0:00 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:02 | 0:00 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:01 | 0:00 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:22 | 0:45 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:24 | 0:44 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 25:19 | 0:41 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:34 | 1:53 |
| K. Guhle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:03 | 0:00 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18:50 | 0:00 |
| D. Savard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:35 | 0:00 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 17:17 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Montembeault | 31 | 30 | 1 | .968 | 62:26 | Win |
| C. Primeau | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYI 3.2, MTL 2.8 | NYI 1, MTL 2 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | NYI 29.8, MTL 26.9 | NYI 31, MTL 27 |
| Win chance | NYI 56% | MTL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI B. Horvat | 3.0 | 1 | 0.84 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 2.9 | 2 | 0.74 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| NYI B. Nelson | 2.9 | 4 | 0.91 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.7 | 4 | 0.68 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 2.6 | 4 | 0.79 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| NYI N. Dobson | 2.2 | 3 | 0.72 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL P. Laine | 2.0 | 2 | 0.61 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 2.0 | 2 | 0.70 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.0 | 3 | 0.83 | 2 | 27% | 1 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.8 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.7 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| MTL J. Armia | 1.7 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL K. Dach | 1.5 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYI M. Tsyplakov | 1.5 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.5 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.5 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.4 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.4 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.4 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| NYI A. Romanov | 1.3 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI O. Wahlstrom | 1.3 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.3 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.59 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 1.2 | 5 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL E. Heineman | 1.2 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL C. Dvorak | 1.2 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.0 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYI G. Hutton | 1.0 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 0.9 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL D. Savard | 0.8 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI I. George | 0.8 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.8 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYI M. Martin | 0.7 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYI H. Fasching | 0.7 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.