Game Recap: NYI 4, MTL 3 (OT), February 26, 2026

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Game Recap

NYI4

Final/OTThu, Feb 26, 2026Every game that night

MTL3

NYI beat MTL 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.53 expected goals to 3.33. N. Dobson led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). N. Suzuki had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. I. Sorokin stopped 22 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
NYI	0	2	1	1	4
MTL	1	1	1	0	3

1st 12:11MTLN. Dobson0.09 xG
2nd 10:06MTLN. DobsonPP0.07 xG
2nd 17:56NYIM. SchaeferPP0.21 xG
2nd 18:51NYIM. Schaefer0.03 xG
3rd 9:11MTLC. CaufieldPP0.73 xG
3rd 18:19NYIA. Lee0.17 xG
OT 1:46NYIJ. Pageau0.24 xG

Team Stats

NYIMTL

26Shots on goal25

3.53Expected goals3.33

62Shot attempts57

185v5 shots on goal18

1/2Power play2/3

26Hits22

20Blocked shots20

6Penalty minutes4

14Giveaways11

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 3.53 xGMTL 3.33 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI25 on goal, 4 scored

MTL25 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	2	2	1	0	1	+2	2	16:02	1:26
B. Horvat	C	0	1	1	6	3	2	+1	0	23:50	1:26
M. Barzal	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	22:19	1:26
J. Pageau	C	1	0	1	3	5	0	+1	0	14:51	0:01
C. Ritchie	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	14:26	1:26
A. Lee	LW	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	0	14:15	0:42
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	16:25	0:41
J. Drouin	LW	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	14:27	0:42
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	13:43	0:36
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	12:52	0:00
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	9:29	0:00
M. Gatcomb	C	0	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	8:59	0:00
M. Schaefer	D	2	0	2	3	0	2	+1	0	25:56	1:32
T. DeAngelo	D	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	20:45	0:42
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	22:04	0:00
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	21:43	0:00
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:51	0:00
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	13:52	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	25	22	3	.880	61:01	Win
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Caufield	RW	1	0	1	4	0	1	+1	0	21:09	3:56
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	1	1	0	1	3	-2	2	18:42	4:03
I. Demidov	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	17:04	4:00
A. Newhook	C	0	1	1	1	2	1	0	0	13:18	1:11
A. Texier	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	13:01	1:14
N. Suzuki	C	0	0	0	6	3	0	-1	0	24:36	4:15
K. Dach	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	16:09	0:59
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	13:25	0:00
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	13:08	0:00
O. Kapanen	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	12:09	0:00
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	11:55	0:00
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	1	3	3	0	0	11:03	1:18
N. Dobson	D	2	0	2	3	0	1	-2	0	21:54	1:10
L. Hutson	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	24:00	4:04
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-2	2	21:45	0:00
K. Guhle	D	0	0	0	2	2	4	0	0	21:37	0:00
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	15:29	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	11:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Montembeault	26	22	4	.846	61:16	OT loss
J. Dobes	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYI

Line 1M. Barzal18:31B. Horvat17:07O. Palat15:44

Line 2J. Drouin13:45C. Ritchie12:15E. Heineman12:35

Line 3A. Lee12:48S. Holmstrom11:51J. Pageau12:23

Line 4C. Cizikas9:34M. Gatcomb8:29K. MacLean8:59

Pair 1R. Pulock17:59M. Schaefer21:25

Pair 2A. Pelech18:29T. DeAngelo19:51

Pair 3S. Mayfield12:33C. Soucy12:37

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki17:48C. Caufield15:54K. Dach15:10

Line 2J. Slafkovský13:24I. Demidov12:48O. Kapanen12:09

Line 3A. Texier11:47A. Newhook12:07J. Evans11:59

Line 4P. Danault10:54J. Anderson10:43B. Gallagher9:15

Pair 1M. Matheson20:22K. Guhle19:37

Pair 2N. Dobson18:41L. Hutson18:18

Pair 3A. Carrier14:01A. Xhekaj11:58

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamEmil Heineman NYI Faces MTL, his team until Apr 20252 SOG
Old teamNoah Dobson MTL Faces NYI, his team until Apr 20252 G, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYI 2.9, MTL 3.2	NYI 4, MTL 3
Total goals	6.2	7
Shots on goal	NYI 26.1, MTL 27.2	NYI 26, MTL 25
Win chance	MTL 55%	NYI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYI B. Horvat	2.9	6	0.80	1	34%	0
MTL C. Caufield	2.8	4	0.77	1	32%	1
NYI M. Barzal	2.2	0	0.86	1	24%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.1	4	0.52	1	22%	1
NYI M. Schaefer	2.1	3	0.65	2	18%	2
MTL N. Dobson	2.1	3	0.59	2	11%	2
NYI T. DeAngelo	2.0	3	0.50	1	10%	0
NYI E. Heineman	2.0	2	0.43	0	22%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.0	0	0.67	1	24%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	1.9	6	0.86	0	26%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	1.8	1	0.48	0	21%	0
MTL A. Texier	1.7	1	0.47	1	19%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.7	1	0.47	0	9%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.6	1	0.35	0	15%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.5	1	0.76	1	19%	0
NYI C. Ritchie	1.4	0	0.42	1	17%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.4	1	0.89	1	10%	0
MTL P. Danault	1.4	0	0.42	0	14%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.4	0	0.27	0	4%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.3	1	0.38	0	15%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.3	1	0.58	2	23%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.3	1	0.37	1	16%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.3	0	0.31	0	16%	0
NYI O. Palat	1.3	0	0.40	0	17%	0
MTL K. Guhle	1.2	2	0.29	0	7%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.2	1	0.33	0	6%	0
NYI J. Drouin	1.2	2	0.49	0	13%	0
NYI M. Gatcomb	1.1	0	0.20	0	12%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.1	1	0.27	0	11%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.1	3	0.44	1	16%	1
MTL J. Evans	1.1	2	0.35	0	13%	0
MTL A. Carrier	1.0	0	0.30	0	6%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.8	0	0.18	0	8%	0
NYI C. Soucy	0.8	0	0.16	0	5%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.8	0	0.15	0	3%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.6	0	0.07	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.