Game Recap: NYI 3, MTL 7, March 21, 2026

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Game Recap

NYI3

FinalSat, Mar 21, 2026Every game that night

MTL7

MTL beat NYI 7-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.45 expected goals to 2.00. MTL outshot NYI 36 to 22. C. Caufield scored three for MTL. Z. Bolduc had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. J. Fowler stopped 19 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYI	2	0	1	3
MTL	1	2	4	7

1st 4:10MTLJ. SlafkovskýPP0.14 xG
1st 6:46NYIE. HeinemanPP0.05 xG
1st 13:19NYIS. Holmstrom0.27 xG
2nd 17:49MTLA. Newhook0.03 xG
2nd 19:08MTLC. CaufieldPP0.16 xG
3rd 0:45NYIM. SchaeferPP0.04 xG
3rd 3:17MTLK. Guhle0.01 xG
3rd 8:08MTLJ. Slafkovský0.18 xG
3rd 11:20MTLC. Caufield0.19 xG
3rd 14:59MTLC. CaufieldPP0.16 xG

Team Stats

NYIMTL

22Shots on goal36

2.00Expected goals4.45

50Shot attempts65

165v5 shots on goal27

2/3Power play3/4

34Hits25

11Blocked shots18

30Penalty minutes28

11Giveaways13

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 2.00 xGMTL 4.45 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI22 on goal, 3 scored

MTL34 on goal, 7 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Horvat	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	-2	0	20:21	2:51
M. Barzal	C	0	1	1	4	2	0	-2	14	18:24	2:51
E. Heineman	LW	1	0	1	3	3	0	0	0	17:46	1:40
A. Lee	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	17:15	1:42
S. Holmstrom	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	15:09	1:43
B. Schenn	C	0	0	0	0	3	2	-1	10	15:15	3:01
C. Ritchie	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	14:11	2:48
J. Pageau	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	13:55	0:00
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	2	13:20	0:00
A. Duclair	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	12:37	1:33
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	11:42	0:00
M. Gatcomb	C	0	0	0	1	6	0	-1	0	10:46	0:00
M. Schaefer	D	1	0	1	3	1	2	-2	0	22:25	2:57
T. DeAngelo	D	0	1	1	3	3	0	-2	4	21:01	1:36
A. Pelech	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	-1	0	20:29	0:03
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	22:19	0:00
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:24	0:00
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	14:48	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	32	26	6	.813	50:47	Loss
D. Rittich	4	3	1	.750	8:11

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Caufield	RW	3	2	5	3	0	0	+2	0	16:07	3:26
N. Suzuki	C	0	4	4	3	2	0	+2	10	18:47	3:25
J. Slafkovský	LW	2	2	4	4	1	1	+2	0	17:14	3:24
A. Newhook	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	+1	0	13:52	0:30
O. Kapanen	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	13:50	0:29
B. Gallagher	RW	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	2	13:15	0:30
I. Demidov	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	16:14	3:25
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	16:02	0:00
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:30	0:00
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	6	5	1	0	0	14:11	0:11
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	12:04	0:00
A. Texier	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	11:38	0:00
K. Guhle	D	1	2	3	3	2	4	+3	14	16:21	0:00
A. Carrier	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	+2	0	20:37	0:00
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	3	2	3	+1	0	21:45	0:19
L. Hutson	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	21:42	3:25
N. Dobson	D	0	0	0	3	0	5	+1	2	21:27	0:31
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	14:51	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Fowler	22	19	3	.864	60:00	Win
J. Dobes	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYI

Line 1A. Lee14:51B. Horvat14:38M. Barzal14:31

Line 2O. Palat11:42J. Pageau11:52S. Holmstrom11:28

Line 3B. Schenn11:45E. Heineman14:57A. Duclair11:04

Line 4C. Cizikas11:57C. Ritchie11:23M. Gatcomb10:46

Pair 1R. Pulock18:39M. Schaefer18:55

Pair 2T. DeAngelo18:34A. Pelech16:46

Pair 3S. Mayfield14:02C. Soucy14:40

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki14:46J. Slafkovský13:50C. Caufield12:41

Line 2J. Evans12:47Z. Bolduc13:27A. Texier11:35

Line 3A. Newhook12:23I. Demidov12:20O. Kapanen11:42

Line 4B. Gallagher12:45P. Danault12:10J. Veleno10:46

Pair 1M. Matheson17:11N. Dobson19:42

Pair 2A. Carrier16:58K. Guhle14:44

Pair 3J. Struble14:51L. Hutson17:52

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamEmil Heineman NYI Faces MTL, his team until Apr 20251 G, 3 SOG
Old teamNoah Dobson MTL Faces NYI, his team until Apr 20253 SOG
HometownAnthony Duclair NYI Plays near home (born in Pointe-Claire)1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYI 2.9, MTL 3.2	NYI 3, MTL 7
Total goals	6.1	10
Shots on goal	NYI 27.2, MTL 27.8	NYI 22, MTL 36
Win chance	MTL 54%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYI B. Horvat	3.2	2	0.85	1	35%	0
MTL C. Caufield	3.1	3	0.83	5	35%	3
NYI A. Lee	2.4	0	0.55	1	24%	0
NYI M. Schaefer	2.3	3	0.71	1	20%	1
NYI M. Barzal	2.3	4	0.93	1	24%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.3	4	0.73	4	25%	2
MTL N. Suzuki	2.2	3	0.97	4	29%	0
MTL N. Dobson	2.1	3	0.63	0	12%	0
NYI E. Heineman	2.1	3	0.41	1	22%	1
NYI T. DeAngelo	2.0	3	0.50	1	10%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.5	2	0.68	0	18%	0
MTL A. Texier	1.5	2	0.40	0	17%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.5	3	0.44	0	8%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.5	1	0.95	0	10%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.5	2	0.31	1	13%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	1.5	0	0.38	1	18%	0
NYI B. Schenn	1.4	0	0.55	0	20%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.4	6	0.39	0	17%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.4	1	0.59	1	23%	1
NYI A. Pelech	1.4	1	0.26	1	4%	0
NYI C. Ritchie	1.3	1	0.45	0	17%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.2	0	0.50	0	18%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.2	0	0.39	0	14%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.2	3	0.37	1	16%	1
MTL P. Danault	1.1	1	0.37	0	13%	0
MTL K. Guhle	1.1	3	0.30	3	7%	1
NYI R. Pulock	1.1	1	0.30	0	6%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.1	1	0.39	0	18%	0
NYI O. Palat	1.0	0	0.28	0	13%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.0	1	0.24	0	10%	0
MTL J. Veleno	1.0	0	0.19	0	10%	0
NYI M. Gatcomb	0.9	1	0.16	0	10%	0
MTL A. Carrier	0.8	0	0.27	1	5%	0
NYI C. Soucy	0.8	0	0.15	0	5%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.7	0	0.14	0	3%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.4	0	0.17	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.