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Game Recap
NYI6
NSH7
NSH beat NYI 7-6 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.33 expected goals to 2.94. NSH outshot NYI 32 to 22. S. Stamkos led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). L. Evangelista had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. J. Annunen stopped 16 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| NSH | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
- 1st 4:16NYIS. Holmstrom0.11 xG
- 1st 6:44NSHR. O'Reilly0.65 xG
- 1st 11:45NSHF. Forsberg0.08 xG
- 1st 16:12NYIA. Lee0.03 xG
- 2nd 4:36NYIS. Holmstrom0.14 xG
- 2nd 7:24NSHS. StamkosPP0.10 xG
- 2nd 12:09NYIM. Tsyplakov0.21 xG
- 2nd 13:25NSHM. McCarron0.25 xG
- 3rd 15:21NYIK. Palmieri0.07 xG
- 3rd 16:19NYIS. MayfieldSH0.19 xG
- 3rd 17:53NSHS. StamkosPP0.11 xG
- 3rd 19:20NSHM. Bunting0.13 xG
- OT 1:56NSHF. Svechkov0.19 xG
Team Stats
NYINSH
22Shots on goal32
2.94Expected goals3.33
53Shot attempts63
205v5 shots on goal26
0/2Power play2/3
26Hits21
17Blocked shots13
6Penalty minutes4
16Giveaways15
4Takeaways9
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYI 2.94 xGNSH 3.33 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:33 | 2:22 |
| J. Pageau | C | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:59 | 2:23 |
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +3 | 0 | 14:56 | 2:19 |
| K. Palmieri | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:38 | 1:38 |
| B. Horvat | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:21 | 1:41 |
| A. Lee | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:46 | 1:38 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:41 | 0:00 |
| P. Engvall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:37 | 0:00 |
| H. Fasching | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:25 | 0:00 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 10:18 | 0:00 |
| M. Gatcomb | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 9:27 | 0:00 |
| M. Martin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 8:59 | 0:00 |
| A. Pelech | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +3 | 0 | 23:33 | 0:16 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 19:47 | 0:38 |
| A. Romanov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:34 | 0:00 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:49 | 0:00 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:36 | 3:44 |
| T. DeAngelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 20:46 | 3:21 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Sorokin | 23 | 19 | 4 | .826 | 40:00 | |
| M. Hogberg | 9 | 6 | 3 | .667 | 21:56 | OT loss |
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Stamkos | C | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 19:27 | 2:03 |
| J. Marchessault | RW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:32 | 2:03 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:13 | 2:03 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:04 | 0:00 |
| R. O'Reilly | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:36 | 2:03 |
| M. McCarron | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:08 | 0:00 |
| F. Svechkov | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:57 | 0:00 |
| L. Evangelista | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:20 | 0:23 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:11 | 0:00 |
| Z. L'Heureux | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:48 | 0:00 |
| J. Vrana | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:45 | 0:00 |
| M. Wood | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:01 | 0:00 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 24:14 | 0:17 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:55 | 1:46 |
| J. Barron | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 20:46 | 0:00 |
| M. Del Gaizo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:11 | 0:00 |
| J. Oesterle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 16:57 | 0:00 |
| A. Englund | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:45 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Annunen | 22 | 16 | 6 | .727 | 59:54 | Win |
| J. Saros | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYI 2.9, NSH 3.0 | NYI 6, NSH 7 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 13 |
| Shots on goal | NYI 27.8, NSH 30.6 | NYI 22, NSH 32 |
| Win chance | NSH 51% | NSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.6 | 3 | 1.01 | 2 | 37% | 1 |
| NYI B. Horvat | 2.7 | 2 | 0.72 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 2.5 | 3 | 0.70 | 3 | 30% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.5 | 3 | 0.85 | 4 | 35% | 2 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.5 | 1 | 0.58 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 2.4 | 5 | 0.57 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| NSH M. Bunting | 2.2 | 3 | 0.62 | 2 | 24% | 1 |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 2.2 | 1 | 0.65 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| NYI T. DeAngelo | 2.2 | 1 | 0.60 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYI N. Dobson | 2.1 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 2.1 | 2 | 0.49 | 3 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 2.0 | 2 | 0.69 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| NSH J. Vrana | 1.6 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NSH M. Gaizo | 1.6 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYI P. Engvall | 1.6 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NSH Z. L'Heureux | 1.5 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH N. Blankenburg | 1.5 | 0 | 0.33 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.5 | 2 | 0.51 | 3 | 16% | 0 |
| NYI A. Pelech | 1.5 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH J. Barron | 1.4 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH F. Svechkov | 1.4 | 1 | 0.36 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.4 | 3 | 0.28 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| NYI M. Tsyplakov | 1.4 | 2 | 0.40 | 2 | 11% | 1 |
| NYI A. Romanov | 1.3 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.3 | 2 | 0.50 | 4 | 20% | 2 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.2 | 0 | 0.32 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NSH C. Smith | 1.2 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI H. Fasching | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI M. Gatcomb | 1.0 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NSH J. Oesterle | 0.9 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.8 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 0.7 | 1 | 0.15 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| NYI M. Martin | 0.6 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH A. Englund | 0.5 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.