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Game Recap
NYI1
NSH2
NSH beat NYI 2-1 in a shootout, with the chances close: 2.85 expected goals to 2.71. E. Heineman had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. J. Saros stopped 30 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| NSH | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 2nd 12:14NYIS. Holmstrom0.12 xG
- 2nd 19:19NSHR. O'ReillySH0.12 xG
Team Stats
NYINSH
31Shots on goal27
2.71Expected goals2.85
59Shot attempts70
205v5 shots on goal19
0/2Power play0/1
20Hits19
23Blocked shots16
8Penalty minutes10
22Giveaways15
4Takeaways8
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYI 2.71 xGNSH 2.85 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Barzal | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:51 | 2:36 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:10 | 1:26 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:45 | 2:34 |
| J. Drouin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:50 | 2:00 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:27 | 1:58 |
| M. Shabanov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:48 | 1:24 |
| J. Pageau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:42 | 0:00 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13:57 | 0:00 |
| A. Duclair | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:39 | 1:28 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:52 | 0:00 |
| M. Gatcomb | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:03 | 0:00 |
| C. Ritchie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:52 | 2:03 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:01 | 0:00 |
| M. Schaefer | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 28:53 | 2:31 |
| T. DeAngelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22:34 | 1:31 |
| A. Pelech | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:44 | 0:00 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20:42 | 0:29 |
| C. McWard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 11:10 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Rittich | 27 | 26 | 1 | .963 | 65:00 | OT loss |
| I. Sorokin | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. O'Reilly | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:52 | 1:21 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:17 | 0:05 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:24 | 1:23 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:48 | 1:20 |
| E. Haula | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:18 | 0:32 |
| L. Evangelista | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:35 | 1:28 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:24 | 0:32 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:18 | 0:08 |
| F. Svechkov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:46 | 0:00 |
| R. Schaefer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:04 | 0:00 |
| M. Wood | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:26 | 0:32 |
| T. Jost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7:22 | 0:00 |
| R. Josi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 23:11 | 1:28 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:55 | 0:32 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:00 | 0:39 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:51 | 0:00 |
| A. Wilsby | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:22 | 0:00 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:07 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Saros | 31 | 30 | 1 | .968 | 65:00 | Win |
| J. Annunen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
NYI
Line 1A. Lee14:29M. Barzal17:28E. Heineman14:36
Line 2A. Duclair12:11M. Shabanov11:10C. Cizikas11:47
Line 3J. Pageau11:34J. Drouin12:20S. Holmstrom12:08
Line 4K. MacLean9:52M. Gatcomb9:03C. Ritchie6:49
Pair 1M. Schaefer19:19R. Pulock16:44
Pair 2A. Pelech16:56T. DeAngelo17:09
Pair 3S. Mayfield15:15C. McWard11:10
NSH
Line 1M. Bunting15:52L. Evangelista15:07E. Haula11:44
Line 2S. Stamkos13:15R. O'Reilly14:59F. Forsberg13:44
Line 3C. Smith11:48M. McCarron12:50R. Schaefer11:04
Line 4T. Jost7:22M. Wood6:54F. Svechkov9:15
Pair 1N. Hague16:26N. Blankenburg16:02
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYI 2.9, NSH 2.9 | NYI 1, NSH 2 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | NYI 26.8, NSH 29.0 | NYI 31, NSH 27 |
| Win chance | NYI 50% | NSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.2 | 2 | 0.90 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| NSH R. Josi | 2.6 | 4 | 0.74 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 2.6 | 0 | 0.66 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NYI M. Barzal | 2.4 | 2 | 0.89 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.4 | 4 | 0.79 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| NYI M. Schaefer | 2.3 | 2 | 0.63 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.2 | 3 | 0.54 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| NYI E. Heineman | 2.1 | 5 | 0.55 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 2.0 | 1 | 0.76 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| NSH M. Bunting | 2.0 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NSH E. Haula | 1.8 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NYI T. DeAngelo | 1.7 | 3 | 0.48 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 1.6 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI A. Pelech | 1.5 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH M. Wood | 1.4 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.4 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI J. Drouin | 1.4 | 1 | 0.65 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYI M. Gatcomb | 1.3 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYI A. Duclair | 1.3 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NYI C. Ritchie | 1.3 | 3 | 0.37 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NSH C. Smith | 1.3 | 2 | 0.23 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.3 | 4 | 0.53 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| NYI M. Shabanov | 1.2 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NSH N. Blankenburg | 1.2 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.2 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.2 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NSH F. Svechkov | 1.2 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NSH T. Jost | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.1 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NSH N. Perbix | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NSH R. Schaefer | 1.0 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NSH N. Hague | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH A. Wilsby | 1.0 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYI C. McWard | 0.8 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.