Game Recap: NYI 4, NSH 3 (SO), October 27, 2026

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Game Recap

NYI4

Final/SOTue, Oct 27, 2026Every game that night

NSH3

NYI beat NSH 4-3 in a shootout, with the chances close: 3.88 expected goals to 4.13. F. Forsberg led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). S. Varlamov stopped 20 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
NYI	2	1	0	1	4
NSH	0	2	1	0	3

1st 3:07NYIA. Duclair0.07 xG
1st 8:07NYIB. Schenn0.21 xG
2nd 1:08NYIB. Horvat0.15 xG
2nd 9:42NSHF. ForsbergPP0.13 xG
2nd 13:02NSHA. Kerfoot0.12 xG
3rd 4:16NSHR. O'Reilly0.59 xG

Team Stats

NYINSH

28Shots on goal23

3.88Expected goals4.13

66Shot attempts62

235v5 shots on goal16

0/5Power play1/5

23Hits20

21Blocked shots17

10Penalty minutes8

6Giveaways18

2Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 3.88 xGNSH 4.13 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI26 on goal, 3 scored

NSH23 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Horvat	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	0	26:04	6:18
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	1	1	3	0	1	+1	0	25:02	6:00
B. Schenn	C	1	0	1	1	3	2	+1	2	19:15	3:37
J. Pageau	C	0	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	16:55	0:04
O. Palat	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	-1	2	16:38	2:03
A. Duclair	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	2	16:11	1:38
K. Palmieri	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	0	20:35	6:05
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	4	5	1	-1	0	18:00	1:54
V. Eklund	RW	0	0	0	3	4	1	0	0	14:00	1:58
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:23	0:10
M. Chaffee	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:35	0:08
M. Schaefer	D	0	1	1	2	1	2	0	0	32:16	6:19
T. DeAngelo	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	16:48	1:48
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	+2	0	19:47	0:00
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-2	0	19:13	0:28
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	2	0	5	+2	0	18:00	0:00
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	9:06	0:00
M. Kessel	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	5:31	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Varlamov	23	20	3	.870	63:10	Win
I. Sorokin	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Forsberg	LW	1	1	2	4	3	1	0	2	22:47	5:07
R. O'Reilly	C	1	0	1	1	0	3	0	2	24:10	4:43
S. Stamkos	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	20:42	5:26
J. Marchessault	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	17:27	4:53
A. Kerfoot	C	1	0	1	3	0	4	+1	0	16:30	1:37
N. Hoglander	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	6:14	0:03
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	20:05	0:00
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	17:12	1:15
A. Edstrom	C	0	0	0	2	6	0	-2	0	16:32	0:00
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:24	0:33
M. Wood	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	10:39	1:11
D. Hunt	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	+1	0	14:45	0:03
R. Josi	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	2	26:07	4:49
A. Wilsby	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	22:40	0:21
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	19:47	1:21
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	18:44	0:18
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	0	12:13	0:00
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-3	0	7:45	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	28	25	3	.893	65:00	OT loss
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYI

Line 1O. Palat14:31A. Duclair13:53J. Pageau13:20

Line 2K. Palmieri14:09S. Holmstrom13:04B. Horvat12:59

Line 3B. Schenn13:17E. Heineman13:40V. Eklund11:44

Line 4C. Cizikas8:07M. Chaffee7:22

Pair 1M. Schaefer21:12L. Stanley16:44

Pair 2A. Pelech14:41R. Pulock14:05

Pair 3S. Mayfield6:50T. DeAngelo12:50

NSH

Line 1S. Stamkos14:43R. O'Reilly13:45M. Bourque14:46

Line 2J. Drury13:46A. Edstrom14:14R. Colton12:51

Line 3F. Forsberg15:33J. Marchessault12:34A. Kerfoot10:22

Line 4N. Hoglander6:11M. Wood7:59

Pair 1R. Josi15:47A. Wilsby18:31

Pair 2D. Hunt14:12N. Hague11:37

Pair 3B. Skjei11:35N. Perbix12:34

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

6 of 18 overs hit (33%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
NYI B. Horvat	2.5	-165	+125	2	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	2.5	-150	+132	4	Over
NSH J. Marchessault	2.5	+160	-170	1	Under
NYI K. Palmieri	2.5	+135	-150	3	Over
NYI M. Schaefer	2.5	-165	+136	2	Under
NSH R. Josi	2.5	+110	-120	2	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	2.5	+115	-145	1	Under
NYI B. Schenn	1.5	-130	+110	1	Under
NSH B. Skjei	1.5	+140	-145	1	Under
NYI E. Heineman	1.5	-120	+100	4	Over
NYI J. Pageau	1.5	+100	-145	1	Under
NSH M. Bourque	1.5	-125	+100	0	Under
NSH M. Wood	1.5	+110	-138	0	Under
NSH N. Hoglander	1.5	+145	-180	2	Over
NSH R. Colton	1.5	-102	-120	1	Under
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.5	-165	+136	1	Under
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.5	-115	+100	3	Over
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.5	-105	-140	2	Over

6 of 32 overs hit (19%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
NYI A. Duclair	0.5	+500	-1000	1	Over
NSH A. Edstrom	0.5	+550	-800	0	Under
NSH A. Kerfoot	0.5	+550	-750	1	Over
NYI A. Pelech	0.5	+1500	-3500	0	Under
NSH A. Wilsby	0.5	+1700	-2800	0	Under
NYI B. Horvat	0.5	+170	-210	1	Over
NYI B. Schenn	0.5	+350	-390	1	Over
NSH B. Skjei	0.5	+1100	-1600	0	Under
NYI C. Cizikas	0.5	+800	-2500	0	Under
NYI E. Heineman	0.5	+340	-475	0	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	+195	-250	1	Over
NSH J. Drury	0.5	+700	-1400	0	Under
NSH J. Marchessault	0.5	+280	-400	0	Under
NYI J. Pageau	0.5	+600	-800	0	Under
NYI K. Palmieri	0.5	+295	-350	0	Under
NSH M. Bourque	0.5	+450	-900	0	Under
NYI M. Chaffee	0.5	+900	-1600	0	Under
NYI M. Kessel	0.5	+1900	-4000	0	Under
NYI M. Schaefer	0.5	+333	-440	0	Under
NSH M. Wood	0.5	+450	-650	0	Under
NSH N. Hague	0.5	+2500	-10000	0	Under
NSH N. Hoglander	0.5	+550	-900	0	Under
NSH N. Perbix	0.5	+2000	-4000	0	Under
NYI O. Palat	0.5	+650	-1200	0	Under
NSH R. Colton	0.5	+550	-900	0	Under
NSH R. Josi	0.5	+500	-800	0	Under
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	+230	-285	1	Over
NYI R. Pulock	0.5	+1500	-2800	0	Under
NYI S. Holmstrom	0.5	+290	-400	0	Under
NYI S. Mayfield	0.5	+1900	-10000	0	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	+170	-210	0	Under
NYI T. DeAngelo	0.5	+1000	-2500	0	Under

7 of 19 overs hit (37%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
NSH A. Kerfoot	0.5	+295	-425	0	Under
NSH A. Wilsby	0.5	+295	-425	0	Under
NYI B. Horvat	0.5	+176	-195	0	Under
NYI B. Schenn	0.5	+210	-250	0	Under
NSH B. Skjei	0.5	+310	-425	0	Under
NYI E. Heineman	0.5	+360	-400	0	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	+126	-135	1	Over
NSH J. Drury	0.5	+360	-525	0	Under
NSH J. Marchessault	0.5	+250	-250	1	Over
NYI J. Pageau	0.5	+320	-300	1	Over
NYI K. Palmieri	0.5	+235	-275	0	Under
NSH M. Bourque	0.5	+295	-425	0	Under
NYI M. Schaefer	0.5	+114	-125	1	Over
NSH M. Wood	0.5	+350	-500	0	Under
NSH R. Josi	0.5	-110	-105	0	Under
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	+134	-150	0	Under
NYI S. Holmstrom	0.5	+220	-275	1	Over
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	+172	-190	1	Over
NYI T. DeAngelo	0.5	+240	-275	1	Over

11 of 19 overs hit (58%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
NSH A. Kerfoot	0.5	+185	-180	1	Over
NSH A. Wilsby	0.5	+245	-340	0	Under
NYI B. Horvat	0.5	-150	+125	1	Over
NYI B. Schenn	0.5	+115	-135	1	Over
NSH B. Skjei	0.5	+235	-250	0	Under
NYI E. Heineman	0.5	+164	-175	0	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	-160	+130	2	Over
NSH J. Drury	0.5	+235	-310	0	Under
NSH J. Marchessault	0.5	+116	-125	1	Over
NYI J. Pageau	0.5	+190	-210	1	Over
NYI K. Palmieri	0.5	+115	-130	0	Under
NSH M. Bourque	0.5	+158	-175	0	Under
NYI M. Schaefer	0.5	-135	+130	1	Over
NSH M. Wood	0.5	+180	-200	0	Under
NSH R. Josi	0.5	-160	+140	0	Under
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	-158	+155	1	Over
NYI S. Holmstrom	0.5	+102	-125	1	Over
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	-158	+140	1	Over
NYI T. DeAngelo	0.5	+200	-245	1	Over

3 of 15 overs hit (20%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
NYI B. Horvat	0.5	+260	-275	0	Under
NYI B. Schenn	0.5	+300	-450	0	Under
NSH B. Skjei	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
NYI E. Heineman	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	+165	-225	1	Over
NSH J. Marchessault	0.5	+350	-500	1	Over
NYI K. Palmieri	0.5	+300	-325	0	Under
NSH M. Bourque	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
NYI M. Schaefer	0.5	+210	-280	0	Under
NSH M. Wood	0.5	+500	-525	0	Under
NSH R. Josi	0.5	+175	-235	0	Under
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	+210	-250	0	Under
NYI S. Holmstrom	0.5	+280	-350	0	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	+190	-210	1	Over
NYI T. DeAngelo	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
NSH J. Saros	24.5	-110	-105	25	Over
NYI S. Varlamov	24.5	-105	-115	20	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
NYI R. Pulock	1.5	+100	-140	5	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYI 2.9, NSH 2.9	NYI 4, NSH 3
Total goals	5.8	7
Shots on goal	NYI 28.3, NSH 26.8	NYI 28, NSH 23
Win chance	NYI 51%	NYI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYI B. Horvat	3.3	2	0.85	1	34%	1
NYI M. Schaefer	3.0	2	0.77	1	20%	0
NSH F. Forsberg	2.8	4	0.93	2	35%	1
NSH R. Josi	2.5	2	0.84	0	16%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.4	1	0.83	1	35%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	2.4	3	0.66	0	26%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.0	1	0.84	1	28%	1
NSH M. Bourque	1.9	0	0.49	0	20%	0
NSH R. Colton	1.9	1	0.39	0	17%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	1.9	1	0.58	1	24%	0
NYI E. Heineman	1.8	4	0.35	0	19%	0
NYI B. Schenn	1.8	1	0.62	1	22%	1
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.6	3	0.61	1	25%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.5	0	0.38	0	17%	0
NYI V. Eklund	1.5	3	0.37	0	15%	0
NSH J. Drury	1.5	2	0.39	0	16%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.5	2	0.36	1	7%	0
NSH A. Edstrom	1.4	2	0.30	0	17%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.3	2	0.25	0	4%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.3	1	0.35	0	4%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.3	2	0.40	1	18%	1
NYI J. Pageau	1.2	1	0.46	1	16%	0
NYI L. Stanley	1.2	0	0.32	0	7%	0
NSH A. Kerfoot	1.2	3	0.48	1	18%	1
NYI O. Palat	1.2	1	0.31	1	14%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.1	1	0.34	0	8%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.1	0	0.23	0	10%	0
NSH N. Hoglander	1.0	2	0.27	1	13%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.0	2	0.27	0	5%	0
NSH N. Hague	0.9	0	0.20	0	4%	0
NSH N. Perbix	0.9	0	0.21	0	5%	0
NYI M. Chaffee	0.8	0	0.18	0	10%	0
NYI M. Kessel	0.7	0	0.14	0	3%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.7	0	0.15	0	3%	0
NSH D. Hunt	0.7	2	0.16	1	2%	0
NSH J. Struble	0.6	0	0.20	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.