NYR beat NYI 5-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.95 expected goals to 4.06. M. Zibanejad led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). N. Dobson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. I. Shesterkin stopped 35 of 37.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYI 4.06 xGNYR 2.95 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 19:20 | 4:15 |
| B. Nelson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:03 | 4:37 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 17:40 | 3:52 |
| K. Palmieri | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:11 | 4:35 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:26 | 0:00 |
| P. Engvall | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:08 | 0:00 |
| B. Horvat | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:42 | 4:22 |
| J. Pageau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:32 | 3:28 |
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:32 | 3:50 |
| O. Wahlstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:25 | 3:23 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:54 | 0:00 |
| H. Fasching | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:33 | 0:00 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 29:24 | 3:37 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 25:21 | 4:31 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:00 | 0:10 |
| G. Hutton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:14 | 0:00 |
| D. Cholowski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:53 | 0:00 |
| S. Bolduc | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 5:56 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Sorokin | 39 | 35 | 4 | .897 | 59:31 | Loss |
| S. Varlamov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Zibanejad | C | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:05 | 2:54 |
| A. Panarin | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:53 | 2:54 |
| V. Trocheck | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:10 | 2:54 |
| C. Kreider | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:52 | 3:07 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:58 | 0:38 |
| A. Edstrom | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:55 | 0:00 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:14 | 0:51 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:23 | 0:00 |
| F. Chytil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 14:37 | 0:51 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:18 | 0:38 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:12 | 0:00 |
| J. Vesey | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:28 | 0:00 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 23:13 | 0:13 |
| A. Fox | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 19:58 | 2:54 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:17 | 0:00 |
| Z. Jones | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 13:53 | 0:00 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:22 | 0:51 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 22:12 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Shesterkin | 37 | 35 | 2 | .946 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Quick | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYI 2.9, NYR 3.3 | NYI 2, NYR 5 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | NYI 31.6, NYR 31.0 | NYI 37, NYR 40 |
| Win chance | NYR 57% | NYR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR A. Panarin | 3.3 | 5 | 1.28 | 2 | 35% | 2 |
| NYI B. Horvat | 3.1 | 3 | 0.67 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| NYI B. Nelson | 2.8 | 3 | 0.70 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.8 | 2 | 0.95 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 2.8 | 4 | 0.58 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.7 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| NYR C. Kreider | 2.6 | 3 | 0.76 | 1 | 36% | 1 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 2.5 | 2 | 0.72 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.4 | 3 | 0.84 | 3 | 27% | 0 |
| NYR F. Chytil | 2.2 | 3 | 0.51 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NYI N. Dobson | 2.2 | 5 | 0.60 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR R. Smith | 1.8 | 1 | 0.56 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| NYR J. Trouba | 1.8 | 3 | 0.34 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR A. Fox | 1.7 | 2 | 0.83 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.7 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NYI P. Engvall | 1.5 | 4 | 0.31 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.5 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYI M. Tsyplakov | 1.5 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYR K. Kakko | 1.5 | 4 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.4 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI O. Wahlstrom | 1.3 | 4 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYR K. Miller | 1.3 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.3 | 2 | 0.25 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR Z. Jones | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.1 | 2 | 0.24 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| NYR J. Vesey | 1.1 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.0 | 2 | 0.29 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| NYI S. Bolduc | 1.0 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR R. Lindgren | 0.9 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI G. Hutton | 0.9 | 2 | 0.08 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.9 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 0.9 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 0.9 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYI H. Fasching | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYI D. Cholowski | 0.7 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYR A. Edstrom | 0.6 | 2 | 0.16 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.