NYR beat NYI 4-0, and the chances backed it up: 4.09 expected goals to 1.79. A. Panarin led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Panarin had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. I. Shesterkin stopped 21 of 21.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NYR | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
- 1st 15:03NYRW. Cuylle0.11 xG
- 1st 19:15NYRW. BorgenSH0.08 xG
- 3rd 3:43NYRJ. Miller0.09 xG
- 3rd 14:51NYRA. PanarinEN0.79 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYI 1.79 xGNYR 4.09 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 22:09 | 3:12 |
| B. Horvat | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 22:00 | 2:46 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 20:32 | 3:03 |
| J. Pageau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:07 | 2:44 |
| K. Palmieri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 19:00 | 2:45 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:47 | 3:26 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:50 | 0:02 |
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:55 | 0:02 |
| H. Fasching | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:45 | 0:00 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:08 | 0:00 |
| M. Gatcomb | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:50 | 0:00 |
| T. DeAngelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 23:33 | 3:28 |
| A. Romanov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 20:51 | 0:00 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 19:18 | 2:23 |
| A. Pelech | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 19:07 | 0:18 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:28 | 2:45 |
| A. Boqvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:11 | 3:06 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:04 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Sorokin | 26 | 23 | 3 | .885 | 57:25 | Loss |
| J. Skarek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Cuylle | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:51 | 1:12 |
| J. Miller | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:19 | 2:48 |
| A. Panarin | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:52 | 2:48 |
| V. Trocheck | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:31 | 2:48 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:02 | 0:00 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:44 | 1:12 |
| M. Zibanejad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 20:22 | 2:48 |
| J. Brodzinski | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:32 | 1:12 |
| B. Berard | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:27 | 0:00 |
| M. Rempe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:08 | 0:00 |
| B. Othmann | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:19 | 1:12 |
| J. Parssinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:58 | 0:00 |
| Z. Jones | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 19:14 | 2:48 |
| W. Borgen | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 19:07 | 0:00 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 22:07 | 1:12 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 19:59 | 0:00 |
| U. Vaakanainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:36 | 0:00 |
| C. de Haan | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:52 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Shesterkin | 21 | 21 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Quick | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYI 2.9, NYR 2.9 | NYI 0, NYR 4 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | NYI 29.4, NYR 28.7 | NYI 21, NYR 27 |
| Win chance | NYR 51% | NYR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI B. Horvat | 3.0 | 1 | 0.73 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| NYR A. Panarin | 2.9 | 6 | 1.05 | 2 | 32% | 1 |
| NYI B. Nelson | 2.9 | 1 | 0.81 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.6 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.5 | 3 | 0.73 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.4 | 4 | 0.83 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| NYI N. Dobson | 2.4 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 2.1 | 2 | 0.62 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| NYI T. DeAngelo | 2.1 | 3 | 0.55 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYR J. Miller | 2.1 | 2 | 0.92 | 2 | 27% | 1 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 2.1 | 0 | 0.54 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.8 | 2 | 0.40 | 2 | 19% | 1 |
| NYR B. Berard | 1.6 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NYI A. Pelech | 1.5 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI A. Romanov | 1.5 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.5 | 3 | 0.45 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYR J. Brodzinski | 1.4 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.4 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NYR K. Miller | 1.4 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.3 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI M. Tsyplakov | 1.3 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYR B. Othmann | 1.3 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYI A. Boqvist | 1.2 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYR Z. Jones | 1.2 | 2 | 0.27 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.2 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR W. Borgen | 1.2 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.1 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| NYR C. Haan | 1.0 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYI M. Gatcomb | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYR U. Vaakanainen | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.9 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYI H. Fasching | 0.8 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR J. Parssinen | 0.8 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYR M. Rempe | 0.8 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.