Game Recap: NYI 5, NYR 0, November 8, 2025

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Game Recap

NYI5

FinalSat, Nov 8, 2025Every game that night

NYR0

NYI beat NYR 5-0, with the chances close: 3.56 expected goals to 2.91. J. Pageau led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). M. Zibanejad had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.8. I. Sorokin stopped 33 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYI	2	1	2	5
NYR	0	0	0	0

1st 10:29NYIB. Horvat0.13 xG
1st 19:27NYIJ. Drouin0.19 xG
2nd 18:42NYIB. HorvatPP0.16 xG
3rd 17:59NYIJ. PageauEN0.89 xG
3rd 19:30NYIA. Lee0.18 xG

Team Stats

NYINYR

26Shots on goal33

3.56Expected goals2.91

53Shot attempts65

205v5 shots on goal23

1/2Power play0/2

18Hits14

18Blocked shots14

4Penalty minutes4

14Giveaways15

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 3.56 xGNYR 2.91 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI23 on goal, 5 scored

NYR32 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Drouin	LW	1	2	3	1	0	1	+2	0	19:30	3:46
J. Pageau	C	1	2	3	2	3	2	+3	0	16:23	0:09
B. Horvat	C	2	0	2	5	1	0	+1	0	18:11	3:38
A. Duclair	LW	0	2	2	0	0	2	+2	0	12:44	0:01
M. Barzal	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	21:58	3:40
K. Palmieri	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	17:34	3:39
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	16:26	0:00
A. Lee	LW	1	0	1	1	1	1	+1	0	16:06	0:08
E. Heineman	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	2	12:09	0:00
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:33	0:00
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	9:20	0:00
C. Ritchie	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	7:54	0:00
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	24:22	0:00
M. Schaefer	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	+1	0	24:16	3:47
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	0	2	5	+2	0	20:34	0:00
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+2	0	17:50	0:10
A. Romanov	D	0	0	0	2	4	0	+1	0	17:41	0:00
T. DeAngelo	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	2	12:29	0:02

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	33	33	0	1.000	60:00	Win
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Panarin	LW	5	0	0	-2	0	22:18	3:25
M. Zibanejad	C	6	1	1	-2	0	21:58	2:50
J. Miller	C	2	5	1	-2	0	20:33	2:51
W. Cuylle	LW	4	0	1	-2	0	18:37	2:49
A. Lafrenière	LW	2	1	1	-2	0	17:51	1:11
C. Sheary	LW	1	0	0	0	2	15:04	1:09
T. Raddysh	RW	1	1	0	-1	0	14:52	0:34
N. Laba	C	0	2	0	0	2	13:43	0:36
J. Brodzinski	C	1	0	0	0	0	12:36	0:35
S. Carrick	C	1	1	0	-1	0	12:12	0:00
J. Parssinen	C	0	0	0	-1	0	8:52	0:00
J. Chmelar	RW	1	1	0	-1	0	8:00	0:00
A. Fox	D	3	0	2	-3	0	26:27	3:20
V. Gavrikov	D	4	0	1	-2	0	20:15	0:00
C. Soucy	D	0	1	2	0	0	20:01	0:00
W. Borgen	D	1	1	1	0	0	17:26	0:07
B. Schneider	D	0	0	3	-1	0	16:41	0:33
U. Vaakanainen	D	1	0	1	-1	0	11:50	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	25	21	4	.840	56:56	Loss
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYI

Line 1M. Barzal17:07J. Drouin14:50S. Holmstrom13:04

Line 2A. Lee13:46A. Duclair12:43J. Pageau11:44

Line 3K. Palmieri12:25E. Heineman12:09B. Horvat11:01

Line 4C. Cizikas9:20M. Tsyplakov10:33C. Ritchie7:54

Pair 1M. Schaefer19:32R. Pulock19:43

Pair 2S. Mayfield18:13A. Romanov15:25

Pair 3A. Pelech13:50T. DeAngelo12:21

NYR

Line 1M. Zibanejad14:54A. Panarin15:49T. Raddysh13:49

Line 2J. Miller13:04A. Lafrenière13:41W. Cuylle11:51

Line 3J. Brodzinski11:56N. Laba11:52C. Sheary13:31

Line 4S. Carrick10:21J. Parssinen8:52J. Chmelar8:00

Pair 1A. Fox20:26V. Gavrikov18:00

Pair 2C. Soucy18:26W. Borgen15:28

Pair 3B. Schneider13:50U. Vaakanainen11:50

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownKyle Palmieri NYI Plays near home (born in Smithtown)1 A, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYI 2.8, NYR 3.2	NYI 5, NYR 0
Total goals	6.0	5
Shots on goal	NYI 28.5, NYR 28.6	NYI 26, NYR 33
Win chance	NYR 56%	NYI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYI B. Horvat	3.2	5	0.81	2	33%	2
NYR A. Panarin	3.1	5	1.24	0	36%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.8	6	0.98	0	31%	0
NYI M. Barzal	2.6	2	0.86	1	23%	0
NYR J. Miller	2.5	2	1.14	0	33%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.5	1	0.52	1	22%	1
NYI K. Palmieri	2.4	3	0.63	1	26%	0
NYI M. Schaefer	2.4	3	0.51	0	12%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	2.2	4	0.56	0	22%	0
NYR A. Fox	2.1	3	0.96	0	15%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.0	2	0.68	0	25%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.7	1	0.38	0	8%	0
NYI E. Heineman	1.6	2	0.39	1	19%	0
NYR C. Sheary	1.5	1	0.43	0	16%	0
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.5	1	0.35	0	15%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.4	4	0.34	0	6%	0
NYR T. Raddysh	1.4	1	0.34	0	14%	0
NYI J. Drouin	1.3	1	0.62	3	15%	1
NYI A. Pelech	1.3	0	0.24	0	3%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.3	2	0.43	3	14%	1
NYR N. Laba	1.2	0	0.35	0	16%	0
NYR S. Carrick	1.2	1	0.28	0	11%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.2	1	0.48	1	20%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.2	0	0.33	2	17%	0
NYI C. Ritchie	1.2	1	0.22	0	12%	0
NYI A. Romanov	1.2	2	0.20	0	4%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.2	0	0.28	0	6%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.1	2	0.27	0	5%	0
NYI M. Tsyplakov	1.1	0	0.27	0	9%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.1	1	0.24	0	5%	0
NYR C. Soucy	1.0	0	0.21	0	6%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.0	0	0.19	0	8%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.9	0	0.17	0	4%	0
NYR U. Vaakanainen	0.8	1	0.21	0	2%	0
NYR J. Parssinen	0.7	0	0.28	0	11%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.