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Game Recap
NYI2
NYR1
NYI beat NYR 2-1, with the chances close: 2.20 expected goals to 1.54. G. Perreault had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. I. Sorokin stopped 20 of 21.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| NYR | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
- 2nd 17:18NYIC. Soucy0.03 xG
- 2nd 18:53NYIM. Schaefer0.03 xG
- 3rd 2:48NYRM. ZibanejadPP0.07 xG
Team Stats
NYINYR
21Shots on goal21
2.20Expected goals1.54
47Shot attempts48
215v5 shots on goal18
0/3Power play1/3
16Hits31
17Blocked shots10
8Penalty minutes8
11Giveaways14
3Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYI 2.20 xGNYR 1.54 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Horvat | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:55 | 2:03 |
| M. Shabanov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 7:59 | 0:00 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:37 | 1:43 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:31 | 2:08 |
| M. Barzal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:25 | 2:11 |
| J. Pageau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:01 | 0:19 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:08 | 2:31 |
| J. Drouin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:52 | 2:05 |
| O. Palat | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:43 | 1:48 |
| A. Duclair | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:58 | 2:08 |
| M. Gatcomb | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 9:32 | 0:00 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:37 | 0:00 |
| M. Schaefer | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:25 | 2:18 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:33 | 0:00 |
| C. Soucy | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:39 | 0:00 |
| A. Pelech | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 21:19 | 0:00 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 2 | 21:15 | 0:19 |
| T. DeAngelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 20:09 | 2:02 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Sorokin | 21 | 20 | 1 | .952 | 60:00 | Win |
| D. Rittich | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Zibanejad | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:50 | 3:08 |
| J. Miller | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 22:08 | 2:52 |
| V. Trocheck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 20:19 | 3:00 |
| G. Perreault | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:22 | 2:29 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:54 | 3:09 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 17:15 | 2:13 |
| N. Laba | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:55 | 2:19 |
| B. Othmann | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:02 | 1:54 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:35 | 0:00 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:22 | 0:00 |
| B. Berard | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:45 | 0:00 |
| M. Rempe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:45 | 0:00 |
| V. Gavrikov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 26:55 | 3:03 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:38 | 0:00 |
| M. Robertson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:37 | 0:20 |
| W. Borgen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:07 | 0:00 |
| S. Morrow | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:47 | 2:23 |
| U. Vaakanainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:34 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
NYI
Line 1B. Horvat13:38E. Heineman13:29O. Palat12:26
Line 2M. Barzal15:15J. Drouin12:47A. Duclair11:50
Line 3J. Pageau11:26S. Holmstrom12:18A. Lee12:00
Line 4M. Gatcomb9:32K. MacLean8:37M. Shabanov7:59
Pair 1M. Schaefer18:56R. Pulock17:12
Pair 2A. Pelech16:26T. DeAngelo17:00
Pair 3S. Mayfield12:29C. Soucy12:30
NYR
Line 1M. Zibanejad16:01J. Miller15:30G. Perreault15:19
Line 2W. Cuylle13:49A. Lafrenière12:44V. Trocheck12:25
Line 3T. Raddysh10:35N. Laba10:19B. Othmann9:08
Line 4S. Carrick9:22B. Berard8:45M. Rempe7:45
Pair 1V. Gavrikov18:41B. Schneider16:52
Pair 2W. Borgen15:52M. Robertson17:04
Pair 3U. Vaakanainen13:34S. Morrow12:05
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYI 2.9, NYR 2.9 | NYI 2, NYR 1 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | NYI 27.4, NYR 26.0 | NYI 21, NYR 21 |
| Win chance | NYR 50% | NYI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI B. Horvat | 2.8 | 2 | 0.73 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.6 | 5 | 0.91 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.3 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NYR J. Miller | 2.3 | 2 | 0.98 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| NYI M. Schaefer | 2.2 | 2 | 0.56 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| NYI M. Barzal | 2.2 | 1 | 0.81 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NYI E. Heineman | 2.2 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.1 | 0 | 0.77 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| NYI T. DeAngelo | 2.1 | 4 | 0.48 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 1.7 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NYR V. Gavrikov | 1.7 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.6 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NYI A. Duclair | 1.5 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| NYI A. Pelech | 1.5 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.4 | 4 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.3 | 0 | 0.58 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NYI J. Drouin | 1.3 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYR B. Berard | 1.3 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYR G. Perreault | 1.2 | 5 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.2 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR M. Robertson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYI M. Gatcomb | 1.2 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYI M. Shabanov | 1.1 | 2 | 0.37 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.1 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYR S. Morrow | 1.1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYR W. Borgen | 1.1 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR N. Laba | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NYR B. Othmann | 1.0 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYI O. Palat | 1.0 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NYI C. Soucy | 0.9 | 2 | 0.16 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 0.9 | 0 | 0.16 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR T. Raddysh | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.9 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR M. Rempe | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYR U. Vaakanainen | 0.7 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 14 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.