Game Recap: NYI 2, NYR 5, October 6, 2026

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Game Recap

NYI2

FinalTue, Oct 6, 2026Every game that night

NYR5

NYR beat NYI 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 5.15 expected goals to 2.42. A. Lafrenière scored three for NYR. I. Shesterkin stopped 17 of 19.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYI	0	2	0	2
NYR	1	2	2	5

1st 6:40NYRO. Bjorkstrand0.05 xG
2nd 0:25NYRA. Lafrenière0.03 xG
2nd 2:56NYIB. HorvatPP0.14 xG
2nd 4:52NYIC. Ritchie0.08 xG
2nd 17:07NYRO. BjorkstrandPP0.13 xG
3rd 18:22NYRA. LafrenièreEN0.89 xG
3rd 18:54NYRA. LafrenièreEN0.75 xG

Team Stats

NYINYR

19Shots on goal24

2.42Expected goals5.15

47Shot attempts55

165v5 shots on goal15

1/4Power play1/3

18Hits27

14Blocked shots14

18Penalty minutes20

11Giveaways13

2Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 2.42 xGNYR 5.15 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI19 on goal, 2 scored

NYR23 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Schenn	C	0	2	2	2	1	1	0	7	16:16	4:08
B. Horvat	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	-2	0	17:49	4:29
M. Maccelli	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	14:32	4:43
C. Ritchie	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	14:27	2:06
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	16:40	0:22
K. Palmieri	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	16:37	4:49
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	15:11	1:56
V. Eklund	RW	0	0	0	2	2	1	+1	2	15:01	1:55
J. Pageau	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	-2	0	14:50	0:13
A. Duclair	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	14:32	2:26
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	13:26	0:00
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	0	11:57	0:13
M. Schaefer	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-2	0	25:03	4:50
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	7	20:56	0:00
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	19:21	0:00
T. DeAngelo	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	18:12	1:54
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	16:32	0:13
A. Romanov	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	13:20	0:13

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Varlamov	22	19	3	.864	59:26	Loss
I. Sorokin	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Lafrenière	LW	3	1	4	3	0	1	+4	2	18:54	2:35
M. Zibanejad	C	0	2	2	3	1	1	+3	0	20:05	2:31
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	2	0	2	3	1	1	+1	5	8:58	1:05
W. Cuylle	LW	0	1	1	4	6	0	-1	0	17:44	1:43
J. Miller	C	0	1	1	3	3	1	+1	5	16:29	1:15
G. Perreault	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	13:45	1:05
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	16:25	2:34
T. Kartye	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	2	15:11	0:00
N. Laba	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	14:47	0:19
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	0	3	4	0	2	13:57	1:17
C. Beaudoin	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	+1	2	9:57	0:13
J. Chmelar	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	8:28	0:35
V. Gavrikov	D	0	2	2	3	1	0	+3	0	24:10	0:00
A. Fox	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+3	0	23:49	2:34
S. Durzi	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	0	17:34	1:08
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	17:47	0:00
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	17:39	0:13
A. Smits	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	2	15:27	0:13

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	19	17	2	.895	60:00	Win
D. Garand	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYI

Line 1B. Schenn11:47V. Eklund13:06C. Ritchie12:02

Line 2K. Palmieri11:33E. Heineman14:34B. Horvat10:40

Line 3C. Cizikas13:07O. Palat11:25M. Maccelli9:12

Line 4J. Pageau11:32A. Duclair11:01S. Holmstrom9:59

Pair 1A. Pelech17:41M. Schaefer18:46

Pair 2T. DeAngelo15:43L. Stanley17:35

Pair 3R. Pulock12:43A. Romanov10:54

NYR

Line 1M. Zibanejad14:32A. Lafrenière14:54G. Perreault12:40

Line 2P. Dorofeyev12:42T. Kartye13:06J. Miller11:36

Line 3W. Cuylle13:10N. Laba11:46E. Tolvanen10:29

Line 4J. Chmelar7:53C. Beaudoin9:18O. Bjorkstrand7:53

Pair 1V. Gavrikov18:10A. Fox18:47

Pair 2M. Pettersson14:14S. Durzi13:25

Pair 3B. Schneider13:31A. Smits15:14

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

6 of 16 overs hit (38%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.5	+142	-160	3	Over
NYI B. Horvat	2.5	-170	+125	2	Under
NYI K. Palmieri	2.5	+115	-140	2	Under
NYI M. Schaefer	2.5	-105	-115	2	Under
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.5	-106	-110	3	Over
NYR P. Dorofeyev	2.5	-145	+130	0	Under
NYR A. Fox	1.5	-110	-105	0	Under
NYI B. Schenn	1.5	+110	-125	2	Over
NYI E. Heineman	1.5	+100	-110	0	Under
NYR E. Tolvanen	1.5	-120	-110	0	Under
NYR G. Perreault	1.5	-110	-115	1	Under
NYR J. Miller	1.5	-164	+140	3	Over
NYI M. Maccelli	1.5	+105	-135	1	Under
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.5	+100	-125	1	Under
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.5	+140	-185	3	Over
NYR W. Cuylle	1.5	-120	-110	4	Over

4 of 32 overs hit (13%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
NYI A. Duclair	0.5	+500	-1000	0	Under
NYR A. Fox	0.5	+500	-900	0	Under
NYR A. Lafrenière	0.5	+240	-275	3	Over
NYI A. Pelech	0.5	+2200	-3500	0	Under
NYI A. Romanov	0.5	+2000	-3500	0	Under
NYI B. Horvat	0.5	+195	-220	1	Over
NYI B. Schenn	0.5	+390	-600	0	Under
NYR B. Schneider	0.5	+1900	-3500	0	Under
NYI C. Cizikas	0.5	+850	-1600	0	Under
NYI C. Ritchie	0.5	+375	-500	1	Over
NYI E. Heineman	0.5	+440	-750	0	Under
NYR E. Tolvanen	0.5	+400	-650	0	Under
NYR G. Perreault	0.5	+300	-420	0	Under
NYR J. Chmelar	0.5	+725	-1400	0	Under
NYR J. Miller	0.5	+270	-370	0	Under
NYI J. Pageau	0.5	+650	-1200	0	Under
NYI K. Palmieri	0.5	+285	-400	0	Under
NYI M. Maccelli	0.5	+500	-700	0	Under
NYR M. Pettersson	0.5	+1900	-2800	0	Under
NYI M. Schaefer	0.5	+390	-650	0	Under
NYR M. Zibanejad	0.5	+200	-240	0	Under
NYR N. Laba	0.5	+600	-1400	0	Under
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	0.5	+500	-1000	2	Over
NYI O. Palat	0.5	+1000	-2000	0	Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev	0.5	+180	-220	0	Under
NYI R. Pulock	0.5	+1700	-2800	0	Under
NYR S. Durzi	0.5	+950	-2500	0	Under
NYI S. Holmstrom	0.5	+500	-900	0	Under
NYI T. DeAngelo	0.5	+1100	-2500	0	Under
NYR T. Kartye	0.5	+525	-1000	0	Under
NYR V. Gavrikov	0.5	+1100	-2000	0	Under
NYR W. Cuylle	0.5	+380	-700	0	Under

10 of 16 overs hit (63%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
NYR A. Fox	0.5	-125	-105	1	Over
NYR A. Lafrenière	0.5	+165	-220	1	Over
NYI B. Horvat	0.5	+195	-220	0	Under
NYI B. Schenn	0.5	+250	-275	2	Over
NYR E. Tolvanen	0.5	+350	-700	0	Under
NYR G. Perreault	0.5	+270	-500	1	Over
NYR J. Miller	0.5	+112	-130	1	Over
NYI K. Palmieri	0.5	+225	-300	0	Under
NYI M. Maccelli	0.5	+235	-275	1	Over
NYI M. Schaefer	0.5	+120	-130	0	Under
NYR M. Zibanejad	0.5	+110	-135	2	Over
NYR P. Dorofeyev	0.5	+225	-295	0	Under
NYR S. Durzi	0.5	+230	-295	1	Over
NYI T. DeAngelo	0.5	+260	-275	0	Under
NYR V. Gavrikov	0.5	+240	-350	2	Over
NYR W. Cuylle	0.5	+350	-700	1	Over

11 of 16 overs hit (69%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
NYR A. Fox	0.5	-160	+130	1	Over
NYR A. Lafrenière	0.5	-128	+110	4	Over
NYI B. Horvat	0.5	-118	+110	1	Over
NYI B. Schenn	0.5	+134	-150	2	Over
NYR E. Tolvanen	0.5	+180	-250	0	Under
NYR G. Perreault	0.5	+125	-155	1	Over
NYR J. Miller	0.5	-155	+135	1	Over
NYI K. Palmieri	0.5	+110	-135	0	Under
NYI M. Maccelli	0.5	+145	-160	1	Over
NYI M. Schaefer	0.5	-130	+115	0	Under
NYR M. Zibanejad	0.5	-180	+145	2	Over
NYR P. Dorofeyev	0.5	-125	+100	0	Under
NYR S. Durzi	0.5	+190	-225	1	Over
NYI T. DeAngelo	0.5	+200	-210	0	Under
NYR V. Gavrikov	0.5	+190	-250	2	Over
NYR W. Cuylle	0.5	+190	-260	1	Over

3 of 14 overs hit (21%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
NYR A. Fox	0.5	+160	-200	0	Under
NYR A. Lafrenière	0.5	+275	-375	0	Under
NYI B. Horvat	0.5	+310	-400	1	Over
NYI B. Schenn	0.5	+333	-625	1	Over
NYI C. Ritchie	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
NYR E. Tolvanen	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
NYR J. Miller	0.5	+225	-240	0	Under
NYI K. Palmieri	0.5	+300	-500	0	Under
NYI M. Maccelli	0.5	+325	-450	1	Over
NYI M. Schaefer	0.5	+340	-280	0	Under
NYR M. Zibanejad	0.5	+225	-215	0	Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev	0.5	+270	-350	0	Under
NYR S. Durzi	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
NYI T. DeAngelo	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
NYR I. Shesterkin	23.5	-102	-120	17	Under
NYI S. Varlamov	23.5	-120	+100	19	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
NYR A. Fox	1.5	-105	–	0	Under
NYI R. Pulock	1.5	-140	–	1	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayRyan Pulock NYI Turns 32 that day1 SOG
HometownKyle Palmieri NYI Plays near home (born in Smithtown)2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYI 2.7, NYR 2.9	NYI 2, NYR 5
Total goals	5.5	7
Shots on goal	NYI 28.1, NYR 25.4	NYI 19, NYR 24
Win chance	NYR 53%	NYR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYI B. Horvat	3.0	2	0.68	1	29%	1
NYR P. Dorofeyev	2.7	0	0.63	0	31%	0
NYI M. Schaefer	2.6	2	0.55	0	15%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.5	3	0.88	2	29%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.2	3	0.67	4	24%	3
NYI K. Palmieri	2.1	2	0.50	0	21%	0
NYR J. Miller	1.9	3	0.77	1	24%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.8	1	0.37	0	7%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.7	4	0.40	1	17%	0
NYI E. Heineman	1.7	0	0.30	0	17%	0
NYR E. Tolvanen	1.6	0	0.39	0	17%	0
NYI B. Schenn	1.5	2	0.49	2	18%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.5	0	0.80	1	12%	0
NYR G. Perreault	1.5	1	0.49	1	19%	0
NYI C. Ritchie	1.4	2	0.46	1	17%	1
NYI A. Pelech	1.4	0	0.20	0	3%	0
NYI M. Maccelli	1.3	1	0.45	1	14%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.3	1	0.48	0	19%	0
NYI A. Romanov	1.3	1	0.19	0	4%	0
NYR T. Kartye	1.3	1	0.41	0	16%	0
NYR S. Durzi	1.3	0	0.40	1	8%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.3	3	0.36	2	8%	0
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	1.3	3	0.33	2	13%	2
NYI J. Pageau	1.1	0	0.41	0	14%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.1	0	0.22	0	10%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.1	2	0.22	0	5%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.1	0	0.33	0	15%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.1	1	0.23	0	4%	0
NYR N. Laba	1.1	0	0.33	0	12%	0
NYI L. Stanley	1.0	1	0.20	0	4%	0
NYI O. Palat	0.9	1	0.22	0	10%	0
NYR J. Chmelar	0.9	0	0.20	0	11%	0
NYR M. Pettersson	0.8	1	0.27	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.