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Game Recap
NYI2
SEA3
SEA beat NYI 3-2, with the chances close: 2.77 expected goals to 2.85. Y. Gourde led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Schwartz had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. J. Daccord stopped 22 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| SEA | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
- 1st 8:10SEAY. Gourde0.68 xG
- 1st 13:38NYIP. Engvall0.26 xG
- 3rd 4:49NYIB. NelsonSH0.22 xG
- 3rd 5:26SEAJ. McCann0.14 xG
- 3rd 16:47SEAJ. Oleksiak0.01 xG
Team Stats
NYISEA
24Shots on goal27
2.85Expected goals2.77
54Shot attempts61
205v5 shots on goal21
0/1Power play0/4
9Hits16
16Blocked shots8
6Penalty minutes2
11Giveaways7
3Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYI 2.85 xGSEA 2.77 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Palmieri | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 20:15 | 0:58 |
| B. Nelson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:09 | 0:58 |
| P. Engvall | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:37 | 0:00 |
| J. Pageau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:07 | 1:02 |
| B. Horvat | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:20 | 1:02 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:41 | 1:02 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:56 | 0:58 |
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 16:45 | 0:58 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:06 | 0:00 |
| O. Wahlstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:09 | 1:02 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:52 | 0:00 |
| M. Martin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4:56 | 0:00 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 24:38 | 0:00 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 23:03 | 1:08 |
| D. Cholowski | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:03 | 0:52 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:37 | 0:00 |
| I. George | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:40 | 0:00 |
| G. Hutton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:28 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Sorokin | 27 | 24 | 3 | .889 | 58:38 | Loss |
| S. Varlamov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Gourde | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:51 | 0:00 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:10 | 0:00 |
| J. McCann | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:43 | 4:18 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:47 | 4:03 |
| T. Kartye | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 11:07 | 0:00 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 21:40 | 4:18 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:08 | 4:20 |
| C. Stephenson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:00 | 3:52 |
| M. Beniers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:07 | 3:45 |
| D. Sprong | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:55 | 2:47 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:40 | 2:16 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8:34 | 0:00 |
| R. Evans | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:15 | 2:57 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:54 | 0:23 |
| B. Montour | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25:51 | 6:27 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:09 | 0:34 |
| W. Borgen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:58 | 0:00 |
| J. Mahura | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:11 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Daccord | 24 | 22 | 2 | .917 | 60:00 | Win |
| P. Grubauer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYI 2.9, SEA 3.0 | NYI 2, SEA 3 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | NYI 28.3, SEA 29.7 | NYI 24, SEA 27 |
| Win chance | SEA 51% | SEA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA J. McCann | 2.8 | 2 | 0.89 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| NYI B. Horvat | 2.7 | 2 | 0.74 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 2.6 | 1 | 0.70 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.6 | 5 | 0.61 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYI B. Nelson | 2.6 | 4 | 0.77 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.5 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| NYI N. Dobson | 2.3 | 1 | 0.64 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| SEA O. Bjorkstrand | 2.1 | 2 | 0.61 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 2.0 | 6 | 0.55 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| SEA D. Sprong | 1.9 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.7 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NYI P. Engvall | 1.7 | 1 | 0.37 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| SEA Y. Gourde | 1.6 | 2 | 0.45 | 2 | 15% | 1 |
| SEA A. Burakovsky | 1.6 | 3 | 0.48 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.6 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.5 | 2 | 0.35 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.5 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.5 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SEA B. Tanev | 1.4 | 0 | 0.36 | 2 | 17% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 1.4 | 0 | 0.42 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.73 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 1.3 | 2 | 0.25 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| NYI M. Tsyplakov | 1.3 | 3 | 0.50 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYI O. Wahlstrom | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.1 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.1 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA W. Borgen | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA T. Kartye | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 1.0 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI G. Hutton | 1.0 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA J. Mahura | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 0.9 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYI I. George | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.7 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYI M. Martin | 0.6 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI D. Cholowski | 0.6 | 1 | 0.17 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.