Game Recap: NYI 1, SEA 4, January 21, 2026

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Game Recap

NYI1

FinalWed, Jan 21, 2026Every game that night

SEA4

SEA beat NYI 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.15 expected goals to 2.55. V. Dunn led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Beniers had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. P. Grubauer stopped 24 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYI	1	0	0	1
SEA	1	2	1	4

1st 2:38NYIA. DuclairPP0.10 xG
1st 10:40SEAM. BeniersPP0.14 xG
2nd 13:37SEAV. Dunn0.19 xG
2nd 16:28SEAK. Kakko0.13 xG
3rd 16:32SEAJ. McCannEN0.89 xG

Team Stats

NYISEA

25Shots on goal25

2.55Expected goals4.15

60Shot attempts48

155v5 shots on goal19

1/7Power play1/4

7Hits15

6Blocked shots18

6Penalty minutes14

9Giveaways13

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 2.55 xGSEA 4.15 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI25 on goal, 1 scored

SEA25 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Barzal	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-3	0	19:29	6:08
A. Duclair	LW	1	0	1	1	0	1	-3	2	17:10	5:58
C. Ritchie	C	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	17:05	5:55
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	20:25	6:09
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	19:06	4:24
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	2	16:39	4:28
J. Drouin	LW	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	16:01	4:11
J. Pageau	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	14:30	0:04
M. Shabanov	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	13:23	4:05
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:48	0:00
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	10:26	0:00
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	9:14	0:00
M. Schaefer	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	25:54	6:16
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	22:02	0:08
T. DeAngelo	D	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	20:17	4:09
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	16:35	0:00
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	0	13:23	0:00
A. Boqvist	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	10:25	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	24	21	3	.875	58:16	Loss
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. McCann	LW	1	1	2	3	0	1	+1	0	15:37	3:04
M. Beniers	C	1	0	1	5	1	0	+1	0	17:28	3:05
J. Schwartz	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	14:58	1:51
B. Meyers	C	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	0	14:54	0:00
K. Kakko	RW	1	0	1	1	0	1	+2	0	13:04	1:47
R. Winterton	C	0	1	1	0	3	0	+1	2	8:11	0:00
J. Eberle	RW	0	0	0	2	2	1	+1	0	17:55	3:05
C. Stephenson	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	17:42	3:03
F. Gaudreau	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	16:30	0:00
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	14:59	2:01
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	12:14	1:53
B. Catton	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	8:23	0:00
V. Dunn	D	1	1	2	4	0	1	+1	0	18:28	3:12
B. Montour	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+2	2	19:20	1:47
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	3	2	1	+1	0	24:37	0:05
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	+1	2	19:58	0:04
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	16:57	0:00
R. Evans	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	16:44	0:01

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Grubauer	25	24	1	.960	59:42	Win
J. Daccord	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYI

Line 1S. Holmstrom12:02J. Drouin11:07J. Pageau10:31

Line 2E. Heineman10:24C. Ritchie10:14K. MacLean10:26

Line 3A. Duclair9:39M. Barzal11:14A. Lee10:33

Line 4C. Cizikas9:47M. Tsyplakov9:14M. Shabanov8:30

Pair 1A. Pelech17:31T. DeAngelo14:58

Pair 2R. Pulock13:41M. Schaefer15:16

Pair 3S. Mayfield10:28A. Boqvist10:25

SEA

Line 1J. Eberle13:32M. Beniers13:06J. McCann12:18

Line 2K. Kakko11:17S. Wright10:17J. Schwartz11:11

Line 3R. Winterton8:11B. Meyers8:41F. Gaudreau8:54

Line 4C. Stephenson9:07E. Tolvanen7:59B. Catton8:23

Pair 1J. Oleksiak15:28B. Montour14:25

Pair 2A. Larsson16:03V. Dunn14:10

Pair 3R. Lindgren10:42R. Evans12:16

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayCalum Ritchie NYI Turns 21 that day1 A, 4 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYI 3.0, SEA 2.9	NYI 1, SEA 4
Total goals	6.0	5
Shots on goal	NYI 28.1, SEA 27.0	NYI 25, SEA 25
Win chance	NYI 51%	SEA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
SEA B. Montour	2.6	2	0.49	1	14%	0
NYI M. Barzal	2.5	2	0.89	1	24%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.4	0	0.53	0	24%	0
NYI M. Schaefer	2.4	0	0.65	0	16%	0
SEA J. McCann	2.4	3	0.68	2	27%	1
NYI E. Heineman	2.2	1	0.53	0	25%	0
SEA J. Eberle	2.0	2	0.59	0	23%	0
SEA V. Dunn	2.0	4	0.57	2	11%	1
SEA J. Schwartz	2.0	1	0.49	1	22%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.9	5	0.47	0	8%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.9	5	0.57	1	22%	1
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.8	1	0.51	0	22%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.6	1	0.50	1	23%	1
NYI A. Pelech	1.5	3	0.26	0	4%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.5	1	0.45	1	16%	1
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.4	1	0.55	0	23%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.3	1	0.41	0	17%	0
NYI C. Ritchie	1.3	4	0.40	1	17%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.3	1	0.35	0	6%	0
SEA F. Gaudreau	1.3	0	0.38	0	17%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.3	3	0.29	0	7%	0
NYI J. Drouin	1.3	2	0.54	0	14%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.3	0	0.61	0	20%	0
SEA B. Meyers	1.2	1	0.25	1	13%	0
SEA B. Catton	1.2	1	0.27	0	12%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.2	1	0.45	0	16%	0
NYI M. Shabanov	1.1	2	0.36	0	12%	0
SEA R. Winterton	1.1	0	0.22	1	8%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.1	1	0.27	0	11%	0
NYI M. Tsyplakov	1.0	1	0.23	0	8%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.9	0	0.18	0	4%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.9	0	0.17	0	8%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.9	0	0.16	0	3%	0
SEA R. Lindgren	0.8	0	0.23	0	4%	0
NYI A. Boqvist	0.8	0	0.20	0	5%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.7	0	0.27	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.