NYI beat SJS 4-2, with the chances close: 3.43 expected goals to 3.66. SJS outshot NYI 40 to 28. J. Pageau led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). M. Celebrini had 10 shots on goal against our projection of 3.2. I. Sorokin stopped 38 of 40.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| SJS | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 10:43NYIA. DuclairPP0.03 xG
- 1st 19:21NYIJ. Pageau0.07 xG
- 2nd 6:27SJSN. KovalenkoPP0.10 xG
- 3rd 1:13NYIA. Lee0.06 xG
- 3rd 3:51NYIA. BoqvistPP0.04 xG
- 3rd 18:33SJSW. SmithPP0.04 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYI 3.43 xGSJS 3.66 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Pageau | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 18:48 | 2:15 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:45 | 4:02 |
| A. Duclair | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:42 | 4:03 |
| A. Lee | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 16:14 | 2:22 |
| B. Horvat | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:04 | 4:06 |
| K. Palmieri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:49 | 4:04 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:24 | 0:00 |
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:51 | 2:18 |
| H. Fasching | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:29 | 0:00 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:28 | 0:00 |
| P. Engvall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:42 | 0:00 |
| M. Gatcomb | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8:01 | 0:00 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 22:43 | 4:01 |
| A. Pelech | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 21:36 | 0:00 |
| T. DeAngelo | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:07 | 2:23 |
| A. Boqvist | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:45 | 2:21 |
| A. Romanov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:31 | 0:00 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:21 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Sorokin | 40 | 38 | 2 | .950 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Skarek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Celebrini | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:41 | 4:40 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:11 | 4:30 |
| W. Smith | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:55 | 4:30 |
| N. Kovalenko | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10:10 | 2:10 |
| W. Eklund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:45 | 4:30 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:15 | 4:30 |
| K. Kostin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 16:00 | 2:58 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:19 | 0:00 |
| C. Graf | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:59 | 2:00 |
| C. Grundstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:09 | 0:00 |
| P. Giles | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:42 | 0:00 |
| T. Dellandrea | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:33 | 0:00 |
| S. Mukhamadullin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:42 | 2:10 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:18 | 0:00 |
| V. Desharnais | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:59 | 0:00 |
| T. Liljegren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 17:33 | 2:10 |
| M. Vlasic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 15:54 | 0:00 |
| H. Thrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12:42 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Georgiev | 28 | 24 | 4 | .857 | 57:50 | Loss |
| G. Romanov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYI 3.3, SJS 2.7 | NYI 4, SJS 2 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | NYI 30.4, SJS 27.6 | NYI 28, SJS 40 |
| Win chance | NYI 60% | NYI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS M. Celebrini | 3.2 | 10 | 0.82 | 2 | 27% | 0 |
| NYI B. Horvat | 3.0 | 7 | 0.84 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.6 | 7 | 0.68 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.5 | 3 | 0.66 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| NYI N. Dobson | 2.5 | 2 | 0.69 | 2 | 13% | 0 |
| NYI T. DeAngelo | 2.3 | 0 | 0.66 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 2.2 | 6 | 0.74 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| SJS W. Smith | 1.8 | 3 | 0.65 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 1.8 | 2 | 0.69 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NYI A. Pelech | 1.7 | 1 | 0.40 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI A. Romanov | 1.7 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.6 | 1 | 0.56 | 3 | 19% | 1 |
| NYI A. Duclair | 1.6 | 2 | 0.54 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.5 | 0 | 0.62 | 2 | 25% | 0 |
| SJS C. Grundstrom | 1.5 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SJS T. Liljegren | 1.4 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYI A. Boqvist | 1.3 | 1 | 0.40 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.3 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYI M. Tsyplakov | 1.3 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.3 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS C. Graf | 1.2 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYI P. Engvall | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SJS S. Mukhamadullin | 1.1 | 1 | 0.34 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.1 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SJS M. Vlasic | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS T. Dellandrea | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYI M. Gatcomb | 0.9 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SJS H. Thrun | 0.9 | 3 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS N. Kovalenko | 0.9 | 1 | 0.34 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| SJS K. Kostin | 0.8 | 4 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYI H. Fasching | 0.8 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.8 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SJS P. Giles | 0.6 | 2 | 0.11 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS V. Desharnais | 0.5 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.