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Game Recap
NYI2
SJS1
NYI beat SJS 2-1 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.53 expected goals to 2.62. C. Graf had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. I. Sorokin stopped 30 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| SJS | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 11:37NYIT. DeAngelo0.04 xG
- 2nd 0:33SJSM. Celebrini0.10 xG
- OT 4:20NYIB. Horvat0.21 xG
Team Stats
NYISJS
34Shots on goal31
2.53Expected goals2.62
68Shot attempts57
305v5 shots on goal25
0/3Power play0/2
28Hits27
12Blocked shots21
4Penalty minutes6
15Giveaways15
6Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYI 2.53 xGSJS 2.62 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Barzal | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:23 | 4:25 |
| B. Horvat | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:17 | 4:03 |
| C. Ritchie | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:56 | 4:02 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:50 | 1:56 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:26 | 3:53 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:04 | 1:53 |
| J. Pageau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:23 | 0:09 |
| O. Palat | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:42 | 1:51 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:39 | 1:35 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:52 | 0:00 |
| A. Duclair | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:52 | 0:00 |
| M. Gatcomb | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:41 | 0:00 |
| M. Schaefer | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 29:01 | 4:32 |
| T. DeAngelo | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:09 | 1:28 |
| A. Pelech | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 23:38 | 0:13 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 21:06 | 0:00 |
| C. Soucy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:38 | 0:00 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:34 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Sorokin | 31 | 30 | 1 | .968 | 64:20 | Win |
| D. Rittich | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Celebrini | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:10 | 3:19 |
| W. Smith | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:57 | 3:21 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:39 | 3:20 |
| C. Graf | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18:54 | 0:00 |
| W. Eklund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:08 | 1:12 |
| K. Sherwood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 16:32 | 0:41 |
| M. Misa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:23 | 0:41 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:15 | 2:47 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:51 | 0:39 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 10:23 | 0:00 |
| Z. Ostapchuk | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:03 | 0:00 |
| R. Reaves | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 6:20 | 0:00 |
| J. Klingberg | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:28 | 0:43 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 22:57 | 0:00 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 22:23 | 2:45 |
| V. Desharnais | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:38 | 0:00 |
| S. Mukhamadullin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:39 | 0:00 |
| S. Dickinson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:31 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Askarov | 34 | 32 | 2 | .941 | 64:20 | OT loss |
| A. Nedeljkovic | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
NYI
Line 1M. Barzal17:40B. Horvat16:36E. Heineman15:54
Line 2A. Lee13:04S. Holmstrom12:01J. Pageau13:08
Line 3B. Schenn12:21O. Palat12:51C. Ritchie11:54
Line 4A. Duclair8:52M. Gatcomb8:41C. Cizikas8:32
Pair 1A. Pelech20:23T. DeAngelo18:54
Pair 2R. Pulock17:18M. Schaefer20:01
Pair 3S. Mayfield11:15C. Soucy13:15
SJS
Line 1W. Smith17:14C. Graf16:59M. Celebrini17:09
Line 2A. Wennberg15:41K. Sherwood14:23A. Gaudette13:12
Line 3W. Eklund13:17M. Misa12:26T. Toffoli11:28
Line 4B. Goodrow7:17Z. Ostapchuk5:58R. Reaves6:20
Pair 1D. Orlov17:51J. Klingberg17:34
Pair 2S. Mukhamadullin17:42M. Ferraro18:05
Pair 3V. Desharnais15:30S. Dickinson14:34
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYI 3.4, SJS 2.8 | NYI 2, SJS 1 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | NYI 28.5, SJS 26.9 | NYI 34, SJS 31 |
| Win chance | NYI 58% | NYI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS M. Celebrini | 3.6 | 4 | 1.15 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| NYI B. Horvat | 3.5 | 6 | 0.96 | 1 | 39% | 1 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.6 | 2 | 0.63 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| NYI M. Barzal | 2.5 | 3 | 1.02 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| NYI M. Schaefer | 2.4 | 3 | 0.81 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| SJS K. Sherwood | 2.3 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| SJS W. Smith | 2.3 | 5 | 0.77 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.2 | 1 | 0.59 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| NYI T. DeAngelo | 2.2 | 2 | 0.61 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| NYI E. Heineman | 2.1 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 1.9 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NYI B. Schenn | 1.6 | 1 | 0.63 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.6 | 1 | 0.72 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| SJS J. Klingberg | 1.5 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| NYI C. Ritchie | 1.5 | 2 | 0.49 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| NYI O. Palat | 1.5 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NYI A. Pelech | 1.5 | 4 | 0.32 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS M. Misa | 1.4 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SJS C. Graf | 1.3 | 5 | 0.45 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NYI A. Duclair | 1.3 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.3 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.3 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.2 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS D. Orlov | 1.2 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SJS A. Gaudette | 1.2 | 3 | 0.28 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.2 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.2 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS S. Dickinson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYI M. Gatcomb | 1.1 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SJS S. Mukhamadullin | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 0.8 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYI C. Soucy | 0.8 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS V. Desharnais | 0.7 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| SJS Z. Ostapchuk | 0.7 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS R. Reaves | 0.5 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 27 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.