Game Recap: NYI 2, SJS 3 (SO), November 9, 2026

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Game Recap

NYI2

Final/SOMon, Nov 9, 2026Every game that night

SJS3

SJS beat NYI 3-2 in a shootout, with the chances close: 3.92 expected goals to 3.40. T. Toffoli led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). B. Horvat had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.3. Y. Askarov stopped 30 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
NYI	1	1	0	0	2
SJS	1	1	0	1	3

1st 6:14NYIB. Hutton0.11 xG
1st 16:41SJSI. Stenberg0.08 xG
2nd 1:11NYIV. EklundPP0.11 xG
2nd 12:12SJST. Toffoli0.04 xG

Team Stats

NYISJS

32Shots on goal39

3.40Expected goals3.92

55Shot attempts67

235v5 shots on goal28

1/4Power play0/4

21Hits27

13Blocked shots10

18Penalty minutes18

16Giveaways22

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 3.40 xGSJS 3.92 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI31 on goal, 2 scored

SJS38 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Horvat	C	0	1	1	7	2	1	+1	0	22:42	2:46
B. Schenn	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	-1	0	18:39	2:46
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	18:37	2:46
V. Eklund	RW	1	0	1	2	5	1	-1	0	18:05	2:46
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	0	20:15	1:43
J. Pageau	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	17:07	0:52
K. Palmieri	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	15:44	1:43
A. Duclair	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	15:03	1:50
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	14:08	1:05
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	10:06	0:00
M. Chaffee	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	5	7:44	0:00
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	7	7:20	0:00
M. Schaefer	D	0	1	1	5	0	1	0	0	30:51	2:53
B. Hutton	D	1	0	1	4	2	1	+1	0	14:28	0:00
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	-2	0	22:02	0:00
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	21:46	0:00
T. DeAngelo	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	18:35	1:43
M. Kessel	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	2	13:48	0:07

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	39	37	2	.949	65:00	OT loss
S. Varlamov	0	0	0	–	0:00

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Toffoli	C	1	1	2	3	0	0	+2	0	10:57	1:40
I. Stenberg	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	15:54	3:55
T. Dellandrea	C	0	1	1	0	2	3	+1	5	9:49	0:00
M. Celebrini	C	0	0	0	6	0	1	0	0	25:40	4:19
W. Smith	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	23:54	4:15
A. Wennberg	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	23:03	3:57
M. Misa	C	0	0	0	5	1	1	+1	0	19:55	2:04
M. Marchment	LW	0	0	0	4	3	0	+1	6	17:16	1:45
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	3	5	0	0	0	15:14	0:00
C. Graf	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	12:42	0:00
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	0	4	1	-1	5	8:18	0:00
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	7:30	0:00
E. Pohlkamp	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	0	15:22	1:41
D. Orlov	D	0	1	1	2	3	0	+1	0	15:16	2:00
S. Dickinson	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	23:49	0:00
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	23:22	2:24
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	0	22:08	0:00
M. Kesselring	D	0	0	0	4	2	1	-1	0	18:20	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
Y. Askarov	32	30	2	.938	64:55	Win
A. Nedeljkovic	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYI

Line 1E. Heineman14:21V. Eklund14:40B. Schenn14:22

Line 2B. Horvat14:36S. Holmstrom12:54K. Palmieri13:31

Line 3J. Pageau13:21A. Duclair12:23O. Palat13:03

Line 4C. Cizikas9:15M. Chaffee7:44K. MacLean7:03

Pair 1A. Pelech16:57M. Schaefer22:26

Pair 2L. Stanley17:37T. DeAngelo16:37

Pair 3B. Hutton13:28M. Kessel12:42

SJS

Line 1W. Smith16:54M. Misa16:46M. Celebrini16:45

Line 2A. Wennberg15:04M. Marchment15:31K. Sherwood15:14

Line 3T. Toffoli9:10I. Stenberg10:47T. Dellandrea9:13

Line 4C. Graf9:54B. Goodrow6:37Z. Ostapchuk6:17

Pair 1J. Trouba18:15S. Dickinson18:42

Pair 2D. Nurse18:31M. Kesselring16:30

Pair 3D. Orlov13:09E. Pohlkamp13:41

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

14 of 18 overs hit (78%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
SJS M. Celebrini	3.5	-110	+100	6	Over
NYI M. Schaefer	3.5	+132	-160	5	Over
NYI B. Horvat	2.5	-165	+138	7	Over
SJS W. Smith	2.5	+110	-125	3	Over
NYI A. Duclair	1.5	+110	-150	2	Over
SJS A. Wennberg	1.5	+135	-180	1	Under
NYI B. Schenn	1.5	-112	+100	1	Under
NYI E. Heineman	1.5	-105	+100	2	Over
SJS I. Stenberg	1.5	-105	-115	3	Over
SJS J. Trouba	1.5	-135	+110	0	Under
NYI K. Palmieri	1.5	-185	+146	2	Over
SJS K. Sherwood	1.5	-110	+105	3	Over
SJS M. Marchment	1.5	-115	+105	4	Over
SJS M. Misa	1.5	+125	-135	5	Over
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.5	-135	+130	2	Over
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.5	+110	-115	0	Under
SJS T. Toffoli	1.5	-138	+110	3	Over
NYI V. Eklund	1.5	-115	-105	2	Over

4 of 36 overs hit (11%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
NYI A. Duclair	0.5	+380	-650	0	Under
NYI A. Pelech	0.5	+2200	-2800	0	Under
SJS A. Wennberg	0.5	+380	-600	0	Under
SJS B. Goodrow	0.5	+1200	-1400	0	Under
NYI B. Horvat	0.5	+155	-180	0	Under
NYI B. Hutton	0.5	+2000	-2800	1	Over
NYI B. Schenn	0.5	+275	-450	0	Under
NYI C. Cizikas	0.5	+700	-1000	0	Under
SJS C. Graf	0.5	+500	-1000	0	Under
SJS D. Nurse	0.5	+1500	-2000	0	Under
SJS D. Orlov	0.5	+1300	-2800	0	Under
NYI E. Heineman	0.5	+390	-550	0	Under
SJS E. Pohlkamp	0.5	+1600	-2000	0	Under
SJS I. Stenberg	0.5	+300	-475	1	Over
NYI J. Pageau	0.5	+470	-700	0	Under
SJS J. Trouba	0.5	+825	-900	0	Under
NYI K. MacLean	0.5	+1300	-2000	0	Under
NYI K. Palmieri	0.5	+260	-400	0	Under
SJS K. Sherwood	0.5	+450	-500	0	Under
NYI L. Stanley	0.5	+1400	-2500	0	Under
SJS M. Celebrini	0.5	+140	-175	0	Under
NYI M. Chaffee	0.5	+750	-1400	0	Under
NYI M. Kessel	0.5	+2200	-2800	0	Under
SJS M. Kesselring	0.5	+1500	-2500	0	Under
SJS M. Marchment	0.5	+340	-600	0	Under
SJS M. Misa	0.5	+400	-650	0	Under
NYI M. Schaefer	0.5	+275	-450	0	Under
NYI O. Palat	0.5	+525	-800	0	Under
SJS S. Dickinson	0.5	+1700	-2800	0	Under
NYI S. Holmstrom	0.5	+250	-320	0	Under
NYI T. DeAngelo	0.5	+1000	-1400	0	Under
SJS T. Dellandrea	0.5	+1100	-1600	0	Under
SJS T. Toffoli	0.5	+380	-700	1	Over
NYI V. Eklund	0.5	+350	-475	1	Over
SJS W. Smith	0.5	+200	-270	0	Under
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.5	+1600	-2500	0	Under

7 of 28 overs hit (25%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
NYI A. Duclair	0.5	+270	-325	0	Under
NYI A. Pelech	0.5	+380	-575	0	Under
SJS A. Wennberg	0.5	+170	-209	0	Under
NYI B. Horvat	0.5	+140	-170	1	Over
NYI B. Schenn	0.5	+150	-197	1	Over
SJS C. Graf	0.5	+425	–	0	Under
SJS D. Nurse	0.5	+340	-500	0	Under
SJS D. Orlov	0.5	+225	-295	1	Over
NYI E. Heineman	0.5	+285	-400	0	Under
SJS I. Stenberg	0.5	+195	-240	0	Under
NYI J. Pageau	0.5	+235	-330	0	Under
SJS J. Trouba	0.5	+180	-240	0	Under
NYI K. Palmieri	0.5	+175	-205	0	Under
SJS K. Sherwood	0.5	+330	-475	0	Under
NYI L. Stanley	0.5	+240	-340	0	Under
SJS M. Celebrini	0.5	-115	+100	0	Under
SJS M. Kesselring	0.5	+475	-750	0	Under
SJS M. Marchment	0.5	+240	-275	0	Under
SJS M. Misa	0.5	+210	-275	0	Under
NYI M. Schaefer	0.5	-115	-105	1	Over
NYI O. Palat	0.5	+340	-500	0	Under
SJS S. Dickinson	0.5	+425	-650	0	Under
NYI S. Holmstrom	0.5	+165	-182	1	Over
NYI T. DeAngelo	0.5	+195	-215	0	Under
SJS T. Dellandrea	0.5	+475	-750	1	Over
SJS T. Toffoli	0.5	+295	-325	1	Over
NYI V. Eklund	0.5	+220	-290	0	Under
SJS W. Smith	0.5	+140	-164	0	Under

9 of 28 overs hit (32%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
SJS M. Celebrini	1.5	+170	-180	0	Under
NYI A. Duclair	0.5	+130	-155	0	Under
NYI A. Pelech	0.5	+330	-475	0	Under
SJS A. Wennberg	0.5	+110	-132	0	Under
NYI B. Horvat	0.5	-175	+145	1	Over
NYI B. Schenn	0.5	-120	+100	1	Over
SJS C. Graf	0.5	+200	-275	0	Under
SJS D. Nurse	0.5	+275	-390	0	Under
SJS D. Orlov	0.5	+190	-260	1	Over
NYI E. Heineman	0.5	+140	-170	0	Under
SJS I. Stenberg	0.5	+100	-120	1	Over
NYI J. Pageau	0.5	+150	-170	0	Under
SJS J. Trouba	0.5	+145	-180	0	Under
NYI K. Palmieri	0.5	-125	-105	0	Under
SJS K. Sherwood	0.5	+180	-190	0	Under
NYI L. Stanley	0.5	+190	-260	0	Under
SJS M. Kesselring	0.5	+360	-525	0	Under
SJS M. Marchment	0.5	+120	-135	0	Under
SJS M. Misa	0.5	+135	-150	0	Under
NYI M. Schaefer	0.5	-190	+160	1	Over
NYI O. Palat	0.5	+190	-255	0	Under
SJS S. Dickinson	0.5	+340	-500	0	Under
NYI S. Holmstrom	0.5	-132	+105	1	Over
NYI T. DeAngelo	0.5	+145	-170	0	Under
SJS T. Dellandrea	0.5	+330	-475	1	Over
SJS T. Toffoli	0.5	+150	-175	2	Over
NYI V. Eklund	0.5	+125	-155	1	Over
SJS W. Smith	0.5	-155	+132	0	Under

3 of 19 overs hit (16%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
NYI A. Duclair	0.5	+500	-750	0	Under
SJS A. Wennberg	0.5	+300	-600	0	Under
NYI B. Horvat	0.5	+220	-300	0	Under
NYI B. Schenn	0.5	+270	-295	1	Over
SJS D. Orlov	0.5	+390	-1000	0	Under
NYI E. Heineman	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
SJS I. Stenberg	0.5	+310	-375	0	Under
SJS J. Trouba	0.5	+270	-500	0	Under
NYI K. Palmieri	0.5	+390	-600	0	Under
SJS M. Celebrini	0.5	+165	-210	0	Under
SJS M. Marchment	0.5	+425	-700	0	Under
SJS M. Misa	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
NYI M. Schaefer	0.5	+165	-220	1	Over
NYI O. Palat	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
NYI S. Holmstrom	0.5	+250	-325	0	Under
NYI T. DeAngelo	0.5	+400	-1100	0	Under
SJS T. Toffoli	0.5	+450	-700	0	Under
NYI V. Eklund	0.5	+390	-650	1	Over
SJS W. Smith	0.5	+235	-275	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
NYI I. Sorokin	23.5	-118	-110	37	Over
SJS Y. Askarov	23.5	-118	+102	30	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
NYI L. Stanley	1.5	-130	-110	2	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

MilestoneMacklin Celebrini SJS 1 point from 200Not yet: 6 SOG
MilestoneMason Marchment SJS 1 goal from 100Not yet: 4 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYI 3.3, SJS 3.0	NYI 2, SJS 3
Total goals	6.2	5
Shots on goal	NYI 27.8, SJS 27.2	NYI 32, SJS 39
Win chance	NYI 55%	SJS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
SJS M. Celebrini	4.0	6	1.32	0	40%	0
NYI B. Horvat	3.3	7	0.95	1	38%	0
NYI M. Schaefer	3.1	5	0.96	1	26%	0
SJS W. Smith	2.6	3	0.86	0	30%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	2.4	2	0.71	0	29%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	2.2	3	0.58	2	24%	1
SJS K. Sherwood	2.1	3	0.49	0	21%	0
SJS M. Marchment	2.0	4	0.69	0	26%	0
SJS D. Nurse	1.8	2	0.31	0	7%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.8	2	0.73	1	28%	0
NYI B. Schenn	1.7	1	0.69	1	25%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.7	0	0.49	0	10%	0
SJS M. Misa	1.7	5	0.60	0	22%	0
SJS M. Kesselring	1.7	4	0.31	0	7%	0
NYI E. Heineman	1.7	2	0.38	0	19%	0
NYI V. Eklund	1.6	2	0.54	1	21%	1
SJS J. Trouba	1.5	0	0.30	0	6%	0
SJS I. Stenberg	1.5	3	0.48	1	20%	1
NYI A. Duclair	1.3	2	0.46	0	20%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.3	0	0.29	0	6%	0
NYI L. Stanley	1.3	0	0.42	0	9%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.3	1	0.59	0	17%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.3	3	0.52	0	18%	0
NYI O. Palat	1.2	0	0.36	0	15%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.2	0	0.36	0	15%	0
NYI B. Hutton	1.1	4	0.23	1	6%	1
SJS T. Dellandrea	1.1	0	0.22	1	9%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.0	0	0.25	0	11%	0
SJS S. Dickinson	0.9	1	0.23	0	5%	0
SJS D. Orlov	0.9	2	0.30	1	4%	0
NYI M. Chaffee	0.9	1	0.20	0	12%	0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.8	2	0.11	0	7%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.8	0	0.14	0	8%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.7	0	0.17	0	8%	0
NYI M. Kessel	0.7	1	0.18	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.