Game Recap: NYI 0, STL 1 (OT), October 17, 2024

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Game Recap

NYI0

Final/OTThu, Oct 17, 2024Every game that night

STL1

STL beat NYI 1-0 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.49 expected goals to 2.44. N. Dobson had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. J. Hofer stopped 34 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
NYI	0	0	0	0	0
STL	0	0	0	1	1

OT 2:04STLJ. Neighbours0.22 xG

Team Stats

NYISTL

34Shots on goal30

2.44Expected goals2.49

55Shot attempts57

275v5 shots on goal26

0/2Power play0/1

23Hits30

21Blocked shots12

4Penalty minutes6

13Giveaways12

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 2.44 xGSTL 2.49 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI31 on goal, 0 scored

STL30 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Barzal	C	1	0	1	-1	2	21:38	2:26
B. Nelson	C	5	1	2	0	0	19:35	1:28
K. Palmieri	C	1	1	0	0	0	18:28	1:34
M. Tsyplakov	RW	1	2	1	0	0	17:51	2:04
B. Horvat	C	3	1	0	0	0	17:30	2:13
A. Duclair	LW	2	0	1	-1	0	17:16	2:30
J. Pageau	C	3	3	0	0	0	14:22	1:08
A. Lee	LW	4	0	0	0	0	13:49	1:49
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	2	0	0	0	13:34	0:38
K. MacLean	C	1	1	0	0	0	11:29	0:00
C. Cizikas	C	1	4	2	0	0	9:47	0:00
O. Wahlstrom	RW	0	0	1	0	0	8:30	0:00
A. Pelech	D	0	3	3	-1	0	22:49	0:00
R. Pulock	D	3	1	3	0	0	22:31	0:01
N. Dobson	D	6	1	2	0	0	21:37	2:14
A. Romanov	D	2	2	1	0	2	21:27	0:07
S. Mayfield	D	0	1	4	0	0	15:01	0:00
M. Reilly	D	1	0	0	0	0	14:58	1:48

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	30	29	1	.967	62:04	OT loss
S. Varlamov	0	0	0	–	0:00

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Neighbours	LW	1	0	1	4	4	0	+1	2	13:44	1:17
R. Thomas	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	22:59	1:17
J. Kyrou	RW	0	0	0	5	2	1	0	0	20:20	1:17
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	18:06	0:43
B. Schenn	C	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	0	18:03	0:43
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	17:58	1:17
D. Holloway	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:13	0:43
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:37	0:00
M. Joseph	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	11:34	0:00
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	11:10	0:41
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	10:03	0:00
K. Kapanen	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	9:57	0:00
P. Broberg	D	0	1	1	1	3	1	+1	0	22:01	0:43
C. Parayko	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	26:30	0:00
R. Suter	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	25:10	0:02
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	23:58	1:17
M. Kessel	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	11:58	0:00
P. Joseph	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	2	10:51	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Hofer	34	34	0	1.000	62:04	Win
J. Binnington	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamBrayden Schenn NYI Faces STL, his team until Mar 20263 SOG
HometownScott Mayfield NYI Plays in his hometown0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYI 3.2, STL 3.3	NYI 0, STL 1
Total goals	6.4	1
Shots on goal	NYI 31.0, STL 31.4	NYI 34, STL 30
Win chance	STL 52%	STL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYI B. Horvat	2.9	3	0.75	0	32%	0
STL J. Kyrou	2.9	5	0.92	0	33%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	2.8	1	0.66	0	27%	0
NYI B. Nelson	2.7	5	0.86	0	35%	0
NYI M. Barzal	2.7	1	0.90	0	24%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	2.4	1	0.90	0	30%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.3	4	0.49	0	24%	0
STL J. Faulk	2.2	0	0.57	0	10%	0
STL B. Schenn	2.1	3	0.66	0	23%	0
STL R. Thomas	2.0	3	1.02	0	26%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.9	4	0.48	1	25%	1
STL C. Parayko	1.9	1	0.35	0	8%	0
NYI N. Dobson	1.8	6	0.63	0	10%	0
NYI M. Reilly	1.7	1	0.27	0	6%	0
STL B. Saad	1.7	2	0.51	0	23%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.7	2	0.57	0	24%	0
STL Z. Bolduc	1.6	0	0.41	0	17%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.5	3	0.35	0	7%	0
NYI O. Wahlstrom	1.5	0	0.27	0	12%	0
STL M. Joseph	1.4	1	0.40	0	13%	0
STL K. Kapanen	1.4	2	0.38	0	14%	0
STL D. Holloway	1.4	1	0.29	0	14%	0
NYI A. Romanov	1.4	2	0.26	0	5%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.3	2	0.27	0	14%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.3	0	0.31	0	5%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.3	3	0.41	0	15%	0
STL P. Joseph	1.2	2	0.28	0	5%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.2	1	0.29	0	12%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.0	1	0.29	1	6%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	1.0	0	0.20	0	4%	0
NYI K. MacLean	1.0	1	0.28	0	13%	0
STL R. Faksa	0.9	0	0.23	0	10%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	0.9	0	0.30	0	15%	0
STL R. Suter	0.9	1	0.21	0	3%	0
STL M. Kessel	0.8	1	0.18	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.