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Game Recap
NYI3
WPG4
WPG beat NYI 4-3 despite fewer good chances: 2.49 expected goals to 3.59. NYI outshot WPG 35 to 27. G. Vilardi led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). G. Vilardi had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. C. Hellebuyck stopped 32 of 35.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| WPG | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
- 1st 1:05NYIS. Holmstrom0.13 xG
- 1st 4:27WPGA. Iafallo0.16 xG
- 1st 12:07NYIM. Gatcomb0.09 xG
- 2nd 4:23WPGG. Vilardi0.21 xG
- 2nd 14:50WPGN. Ehlers0.11 xG
- 2nd 18:18WPGG. Vilardi0.19 xG
- 3rd 11:07NYIK. Palmieri0.66 xG
Team Stats
NYIWPG
35Shots on goal27
3.59Expected goals2.49
74Shot attempts52
255v5 shots on goal20
0/3Power play0/2
14Hits19
15Blocked shots18
4Penalty minutes6
15Giveaways10
6Takeaways8
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYI 3.59 xGWPG 2.49 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:14 | 4:11 |
| K. Palmieri | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:06 | 1:55 |
| J. Pageau | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:30 | 0:02 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:11 | 0:06 |
| M. Gatcomb | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:19 | 0:00 |
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:27 | 2:05 |
| B. Horvat | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 20:26 | 3:59 |
| A. Duclair | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 16:54 | 3:53 |
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:26 | 1:40 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:27 | 0:05 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:44 | 0:00 |
| P. Engvall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:18 | 0:00 |
| A. Romanov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 24:09 | 0:00 |
| T. DeAngelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 27:10 | 4:14 |
| A. Pelech | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 24:35 | 0:02 |
| S. Perunovich | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:46 | 1:45 |
| A. Boqvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:24 | 4:16 |
| D. Cholowski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:14 | 1:47 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Sorokin | 27 | 23 | 4 | .852 | 57:40 | Loss |
| J. Skarek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Scheifele | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:01 | 2:01 |
| K. Connor | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:54 | 2:10 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:31 | 1:48 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 17:50 | 1:46 |
| V. Namestnikov | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:46 | 2:00 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 17:16 | 1:54 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 12:35 | 1:58 |
| B. Lambert | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 7:06 | 0:00 |
| R. Kupari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:36 | 0:00 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:25 | 2:08 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:48 | 0:00 |
| D. Gustafsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 8:33 | 0:00 |
| D. Samberg | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:44 | 0:03 |
| N. Pionk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:59 | 1:59 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:56 | 1:58 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 2 | 21:31 | 0:15 |
| L. Stanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:51 | 0:00 |
| C. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 12:38 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Hellebuyck | 35 | 32 | 3 | .914 | 60:00 | Win |
| E. Comrie | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYI 2.3, WPG 2.9 | NYI 3, WPG 4 |
| Total goals | 5.2 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | NYI 26.7, WPG 28.9 | NYI 35, WPG 27 |
| Win chance | WPG 60% | WPG won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG K. Connor | 3.1 | 4 | 1.00 | 2 | 36% | 0 |
| NYI B. Horvat | 2.8 | 4 | 0.65 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| WPG N. Ehlers | 2.7 | 3 | 0.83 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.6 | 4 | 0.54 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| NYI B. Nelson | 2.4 | 2 | 0.62 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| NYI T. DeAngelo | 2.4 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 2.2 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 2.2 | 1 | 0.76 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 2.1 | 0 | 0.92 | 2 | 34% | 0 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 1.9 | 7 | 0.75 | 2 | 30% | 2 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 1.9 | 0 | 0.55 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| WPG N. Pionk | 1.9 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 1.8 | 3 | 0.50 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| NYI A. Pelech | 1.8 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI A. Romanov | 1.7 | 3 | 0.30 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG M. Appleton | 1.6 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYI A. Duclair | 1.5 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.5 | 2 | 0.31 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.4 | 2 | 0.51 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.4 | 1 | 0.37 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.3 | 3 | 0.32 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| NYI M. Tsyplakov | 1.2 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WPG R. Kupari | 1.2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.2 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WPG C. Miller | 1.2 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.1 | 1 | 0.40 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| NYI A. Boqvist | 1.1 | 4 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 1.1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI M. Gatcomb | 1.1 | 1 | 0.19 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| WPG B. Lambert | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| WPG L. Stanley | 1.0 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WPG D. Gustafsson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYI P. Engvall | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYI D. Cholowski | 0.7 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.7 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYI S. Perunovich | 0.6 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.