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Game Recap
NYI4
WPG5
WPG beat NYI 5-4, and the chances backed it up: 3.70 expected goals to 2.93. E. Heineman led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Lee had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. C. Hellebuyck stopped 23 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| WPG | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5 |
- 1st 4:20WPGK. Connor0.18 xG
- 2nd 5:41WPGJ. Morrissey0.08 xG
- 2nd 6:23WPGJ. ToewsPP0.67 xG
- 2nd 7:40NYIA. Duclair0.09 xG
- 2nd 8:58NYIE. Heineman0.38 xG
- 2nd 10:21NYIK. MacLean0.24 xG
- 2nd 12:23WPGD. DeMelo0.02 xG
- 2nd 19:40WPGA. Lowry0.10 xG
- 3rd 19:14NYIM. Schaefer0.04 xG
Team Stats
NYIWPG
27Shots on goal22
2.93Expected goals3.70
52Shot attempts46
215v5 shots on goal19
0/1Power play1/3
13Hits18
12Blocked shots9
4Penalty minutes2
20Giveaways16
6Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYI 2.93 xGWPG 3.70 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Heineman | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:14 | 1:15 |
| M. Barzal | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 24:38 | 1:13 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:28 | 0:45 |
| A. Duclair | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:34 | 0:44 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:08 | 0:04 |
| K. MacLean | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:57 | 0:03 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:43 | 0:43 |
| J. Pageau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:24 | 0:00 |
| M. Shabanov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:04 | 0:43 |
| J. Drouin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:44 | 1:12 |
| C. Ritchie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:57 | 1:11 |
| M. Gatcomb | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 8:59 | 0:02 |
| M. Schaefer | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:39 | 0:00 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 21:58 | 0:00 |
| A. Pelech | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:43 | 0:05 |
| T. DeAngelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:12 | 1:18 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 16:15 | 0:00 |
| A. Boqvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 12:35 | 0:42 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Sorokin | 22 | 17 | 5 | .773 | 56:13 | Loss |
| D. Rittich | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Connor | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:30 | 3:02 |
| M. Scheifele | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:28 | 2:59 |
| A. Lowry | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:05 | 0:13 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:35 | 1:21 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:17 | 3:00 |
| J. Toews | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:25 | 2:58 |
| V. Namestnikov | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:01 | 1:35 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:42 | 1:24 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:59 | 1:35 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:54 | 0:00 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:43 | 0:00 |
| D. Zhilkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:42 | 0:00 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 2 | 26:02 | 3:21 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:59 | 0:00 |
| N. Pionk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:21 | 1:14 |
| D. Samberg | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:18 | 0:13 |
| L. Stanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:42 | 0:00 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:29 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Hellebuyck | 27 | 23 | 4 | .852 | 59:48 | Win |
| E. Comrie | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
NYI
Line 1A. Lee15:42M. Barzal19:51A. Duclair15:35
Line 2S. Holmstrom12:48M. Shabanov13:21J. Pageau12:27
Line 3J. Drouin11:21E. Heineman12:00C. Ritchie8:28
Line 4C. Cizikas8:43M. Gatcomb8:57K. MacLean8:54
Pair 1R. Pulock18:48M. Schaefer18:14
Pair 2A. Pelech19:24T. DeAngelo16:55
Pair 3S. Mayfield14:39A. Boqvist11:03
WPG
Line 1M. Scheifele16:26K. Connor15:35A. Iafallo15:20
Line 2G. Vilardi13:32C. Perfetti13:18J. Toews11:50
Line 3N. Niederreiter12:36V. Namestnikov12:12A. Lowry13:58
Line 4T. Pearson8:03C. Koepke8:19D. Zhilkin6:58
Pair 1D. DeMelo18:46J. Morrissey19:31
Pair 2D. Samberg17:03N. Pionk17:11
Pair 3L. Schenn12:21L. Stanley14:11
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYI 2.6, WPG 3.0 | NYI 4, WPG 5 |
| Total goals | 5.6 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | NYI 25.7, WPG 27.7 | NYI 27, WPG 22 |
| Win chance | WPG 57% | WPG won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG K. Connor | 3.3 | 2 | 1.07 | 2 | 37% | 1 |
| NYI M. Schaefer | 2.4 | 1 | 0.61 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| NYI M. Barzal | 2.3 | 1 | 0.83 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 2.3 | 2 | 1.04 | 2 | 36% | 0 |
| NYI E. Heineman | 2.1 | 6 | 0.51 | 2 | 24% | 1 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.0 | 6 | 0.47 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 2.0 | 4 | 0.77 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 2.0 | 3 | 0.77 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| NYI T. DeAngelo | 1.9 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WPG N. Pionk | 1.9 | 0 | 0.39 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 1.7 | 1 | 0.47 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 1.6 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NYI A. Pelech | 1.6 | 3 | 0.28 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.5 | 1 | 0.39 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| WPG J. Toews | 1.4 | 3 | 0.43 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.4 | 0 | 0.27 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.3 | 2 | 0.36 | 2 | 16% | 1 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.3 | 1 | 0.34 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI C. Ritchie | 1.2 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYI A. Duclair | 1.2 | 2 | 0.40 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| NYI J. Drouin | 1.2 | 0 | 0.57 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.2 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| WPG C. Koepke | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYI M. Shabanov | 1.1 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.1 | 0 | 0.33 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.1 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG T. Pearson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYI M. Gatcomb | 1.1 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 1.0 | 1 | 0.31 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| WPG L. Stanley | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG L. Schenn | 0.9 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.8 | 2 | 0.16 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| NYI A. Boqvist | 0.7 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 16 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.