Game Recap: NYR 3, BOS 6, February 1, 2025

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Game Recap

NYR3

FinalSat, Feb 1, 2025Every game that night

BOS6

BOS beat NYR 6-3, with the chances close: 3.43 expected goals to 2.99. D. Pastrnak scored three for BOS. J. Miller had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. J. Swayman stopped 22 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYR	1	0	2	3
BOS	2	2	2	6

1st 10:21BOSC. McAvoyPP0.14 xG
1st 10:55NYRJ. Miller0.13 xG
1st 17:09BOSD. Pastrnak0.23 xG
2nd 3:39BOSC. Coyle0.08 xG
2nd 17:10BOSP. ZachaPP0.17 xG
3rd 0:35NYRJ. MillerPP0.09 xG
3rd 1:21BOSD. Pastrnak0.04 xG
3rd 10:47NYRJ. Brodzinski0.05 xG
3rd 16:38BOSD. PastrnakEN0.74 xG

Team Stats

NYRBOS

25Shots on goal25

2.99Expected goals3.43

63Shot attempts65

175v5 shots on goal20

1/3Power play2/3

39Hits19

18Blocked shots13

6Penalty minutes4

21Giveaways19

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 2.99 xGBOS 3.43 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR25 on goal, 3 scored

BOS24 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Miller	C	2	0	2	6	3	1	-1	0	18:48	4:23
A. Panarin	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	20:26	4:25
M. Zibanejad	C	0	1	1	4	0	1	-1	0	20:10	4:25
C. Kreider	LW	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	0	15:01	2:36
J. Brodzinski	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	13:14	1:18
V. Trocheck	C	0	0	0	3	4	1	-2	0	22:04	3:18
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	19:09	1:32
R. Smith	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	17:03	1:30
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	0	6	2	0	0	14:40	0:00
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	0	6	1	-1	0	11:41	0:00
M. Rempe	C	0	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	6:24	0:00
A. Edstrom	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	4:22	0:00
W. Borgen	D	0	1	1	1	3	1	+1	2	20:11	0:12
R. Lindgren	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	2	18:05	0:00
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	4	0	2	0	0	23:29	1:32
A. Fox	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-3	0	22:36	4:24
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	15:50	0:00
U. Vaakanainen	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	14:14	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	24	19	5	.792	59:52	Loss
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Pastrnak	RW	3	1	4	6	4	0	+3	0	19:53	1:55
P. Zacha	C	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	0	19:12	1:55
B. Marchand	LW	0	2	2	2	3	1	-1	2	18:51	1:31
M. Poitras	C	0	2	2	2	0	0	+2	0	12:33	0:32
E. Lindholm	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	20:06	1:53
C. Coyle	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	-1	0	18:37	0:56
M. Geekie	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+3	2	16:42	0:34
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	12:15	0:00
O. Wahlstrom	RW	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	11:00	0:00
J. Beecher	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:21	0:00
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	8:32	0:00
J. Brazeau	RW	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	8:23	0:32
C. McAvoy	D	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	25:12	1:52
A. Peeke	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+2	0	20:57	0:00
B. Carlo	D	0	1	1	1	2	0	-1	0	17:12	0:00
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	+2	0	26:01	0:00
M. Lohrei	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	22:32	0:35
M. Callahan	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	5:49	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Swayman	25	22	3	.880	60:00	Win
J. Korpisalo	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJoonas Korpisalo NYR Faces BOS, his team until May 20260 saves on 0

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 2.8, BOS 2.7	NYR 3, BOS 6
Total goals	5.6	9
Shots on goal	NYR 29.2, BOS 29.0	NYR 25, BOS 25
Win chance	NYR 51%	BOS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	4.2	6	1.17	4	41%	3
NYR A. Panarin	3.0	2	1.11	1	32%	0
BOS B. Marchand	2.5	2	0.76	2	26%	0
NYR V. Trocheck	2.4	3	0.71	0	24%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.4	2	0.60	0	23%	0
NYR C. Kreider	2.4	1	0.61	1	32%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.2	4	0.69	1	23%	0
BOS M. Geekie	2.2	0	0.59	1	23%	0
NYR J. Miller	2.1	6	0.88	2	25%	2
BOS P. Zacha	2.0	1	0.71	2	22%	1
BOS E. Lindholm	1.9	1	0.58	1	22%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.8	0	0.40	0	18%	0
NYR R. Smith	1.8	0	0.53	0	19%	0
BOS C. McAvoy	1.8	2	0.50	1	9%	1
NYR A. Fox	1.6	0	0.70	0	10%	0
BOS C. Coyle	1.6	3	0.53	1	20%	1
BOS O. Wahlstrom	1.5	2	0.25	0	11%	0
BOS T. Frederic	1.5	0	0.37	0	17%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.5	2	0.29	0	8%	0
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.4	1	0.25	1	9%	1
NYR K. Miller	1.3	4	0.32	0	7%	0
BOS J. Brazeau	1.3	0	0.33	0	15%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.2	1	0.22	0	5%	0
BOS A. Peeke	1.1	0	0.23	1	4%	0
BOS B. Carlo	1.1	1	0.17	1	4%	0
BOS M. Poitras	1.1	2	0.39	2	12%	0
NYR S. Carrick	1.1	0	0.25	0	11%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	1.0	0	0.43	0	7%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.0	1	0.21	1	4%	0
BOS C. Koepke	0.9	3	0.21	0	10%	0
NYR A. Edstrom	0.9	0	0.21	0	11%	0
NYR R. Lindgren	0.8	0	0.23	1	4%	0
NYR U. Vaakanainen	0.8	0	0.18	0	1%	0
NYR M. Rempe	0.7	0	0.18	0	8%	0
BOS J. Beecher	0.7	0	0.18	0	9%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.