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Game Recap
NYR6
BOS2
NYR beat BOS 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.02 expected goals to 2.43. NYR outshot BOS 37 to 21. A. Panarin led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). M. Zibanejad had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. I. Shesterkin stopped 19 of 21.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
- 1st 3:28NYRA. Panarin0.07 xG
- 1st 12:02NYRC. Soucy0.09 xG
- 2nd 14:22NYRM. ZibanejadPP0.13 xG
- 2nd 15:07NYRM. ZibanejadPP0.05 xG
- 3rd 4:07BOSC. Mittelstadt0.35 xG
- 3rd 5:49BOSM. Geekie0.05 xG
- 3rd 16:36NYRA. LafrenièreEN0.67 xG
- 3rd 17:02NYRV. Gavrikov0.15 xG
Team Stats
NYRBOS
37Shots on goal21
4.02Expected goals2.43
62Shot attempts56
295v5 shots on goal17
2/3Power play0/2
34Hits25
16Blocked shots9
4Penalty minutes6
15Giveaways14
2Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYR 4.02 xGBOS 2.43 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Panarin | LW | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:45 | 2:26 |
| M. Zibanejad | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:24 | 2:20 |
| V. Trocheck | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:32 | 2:13 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:34 | 0:44 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:14 | 0:26 |
| J. Miller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:33 | 2:02 |
| A. Edstrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:08 | 0:00 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:52 | 0:00 |
| J. Brodzinski | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:15 | 0:33 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:00 | 0:08 |
| N. Laba | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:38 | 0:00 |
| B. Berard | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:21 | 0:00 |
| A. Fox | D | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:24 | 2:28 |
| V. Gavrikov | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 23:24 | 0:10 |
| C. Soucy | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 20:58 | 0:00 |
| S. Morrow | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:52 | 0:20 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 20:33 | 0:00 |
| M. Robertson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:24 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Shesterkin | 21 | 19 | 2 | .905 | 60:00 | Win |
| D. Garand | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:51 | 2:22 |
| M. Geekie | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:34 | 2:54 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:14 | 2:22 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:30 | 0:00 |
| T. Jeannot | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:00 | 0:45 |
| F. Minten | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:46 | 0:49 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:10 | 0:13 |
| A. Steeves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:38 | 0:00 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 13:35 | 1:31 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:13 | 0:00 |
| R. Tufte | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:28 | 0:00 |
| G. Merkulov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:35 | 0:00 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:51 | 0:00 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:50 | 0:29 |
| H. Lindholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 22:47 | 2:56 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:15 | 0:15 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 16:37 | 1:09 |
| J. Aspirot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 13:48 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Korpisalo | 36 | 31 | 5 | .861 | 59:26 | Loss |
| J. Swayman | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
NYR
Line 1M. Zibanejad15:19J. Miller14:50A. Lafrenière15:33
Line 2V. Trocheck14:18A. Panarin15:19W. Cuylle13:48
Line 3T. Raddysh11:59A. Edstrom13:02S. Carrick12:06
Line 4J. Brodzinski12:42N. Laba11:07B. Berard10:21
Pair 1V. Gavrikov22:09A. Fox19:36
Pair 2C. Soucy18:58B. Schneider18:29
Pair 3M. Robertson14:01S. Morrow13:58
BOS
Line 1E. Lindholm13:48M. Geekie16:06A. Steeves12:45
Line 2M. Kastelic13:59T. Jeannot13:57F. Minten13:28
Line 3S. Kuraly14:42M. Eyssimont13:13R. Tufte11:28
Line 4G. Merkulov10:35M. Khusnutdinov12:03C. Mittelstadt14:18
Pair 1H. Lindholm18:26H. Jokiharju20:51
Pair 2N. Zadorov20:36A. Peeke19:07
Pair 3M. Lohrei15:28J. Aspirot12:45
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYR 3.0, BOS 2.9 | NYR 6, BOS 2 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | NYR 27.1, BOS 28.1 | NYR 37, BOS 21 |
| Win chance | BOS 50% | NYR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR A. Panarin | 2.9 | 2 | 1.13 | 4 | 33% | 1 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.5 | 7 | 0.80 | 2 | 26% | 2 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.2 | 3 | 0.78 | 2 | 26% | 0 |
| BOS M. Eyssimont | 2.2 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 2.2 | 1 | 0.76 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| NYR J. Miller | 2.1 | 0 | 0.97 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 2.1 | 3 | 0.54 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| NYR A. Fox | 1.9 | 1 | 0.89 | 3 | 14% | 0 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 1.8 | 3 | 0.54 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.7 | 2 | 0.56 | 2 | 20% | 0 |
| BOS H. Lindholm | 1.7 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYR B. Berard | 1.6 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NYR J. Brodzinski | 1.6 | 4 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.6 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.5 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR V. Gavrikov | 1.4 | 2 | 0.37 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| BOS A. Steeves | 1.4 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS F. Minten | 1.3 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS S. Kuraly | 1.3 | 4 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS T. Jeannot | 1.3 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS G. Merkulov | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS C. Mittelstadt | 1.2 | 1 | 0.52 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| NYR S. Morrow | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR N. Laba | 1.1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 1.1 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYR T. Raddysh | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYR C. Soucy | 1.0 | 3 | 0.20 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| BOS H. Jokiharju | 0.9 | 1 | 0.19 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS M. Khusnutdinov | 0.9 | 3 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYR M. Robertson | 0.9 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 0.9 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 0.8 | 3 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS R. Tufte | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS J. Aspirot | 0.8 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR A. Edstrom | 0.7 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.