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Game Recap
NYR2
FinalSat, Jan 10, 2026Every game that night
BOS10

BOS beat NYR 10-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.17 expected goals to 2.72. D. Pastrnak led the way with 6 points (0 G, 6 A). M. Khusnutdinov had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. J. Swayman stopped 27 of 29.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
NYR1102
BOS34310
  1. 1st 1:24NYRM. Zibanejad0.02 xG
  2. 1st 2:31BOSM. Khusnutdinov0.12 xG
  3. 1st 7:16BOSP. Zacha0.11 xG
  4. 1st 19:27BOSP. ZachaPP0.49 xG
  5. 2nd 2:12BOSF. Minten0.02 xG
  6. 2nd 6:41BOSM. Khusnutdinov0.26 xG
  7. 2nd 11:26BOSP. Zacha0.09 xG
  8. 2nd 14:04NYRJ. MillerPP0.32 xG
  9. 2nd 15:47BOSC. McAvoy0.16 xG
  10. 3rd 3:51BOSM. Khusnutdinov0.07 xG
  11. 3rd 11:26BOSF. Minten0.16 xG
  12. 3rd 18:31BOSM. Khusnutdinov0.09 xG

Team Stats

NYRBOS
29Shots on goal34
2.72Expected goals4.17
59Shot attempts63
245v5 shots on goal28
1/2Power play1/3
27Hits29
9Blocked shots14
18Penalty minutes26
20Giveaways11
5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 2.72 xGBOS 4.17 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdNYR goal, 1:24BOS goal, 2:31BOS goal, 7:16BOS goal, 19:27BOS goal, 2:12BOS goal, 6:41BOS goal, 11:26NYR goal, 14:04BOS goal, 15:47BOS goal, 3:51BOS goal, 11:26BOS goal, 18:31

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR28 on goal, 2 scored
BOS34 on goal, 10 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. ZibanejadC112220-2219:072:23
V. TrocheckC011252-3020:372:23
A. PanarinLW011200-2018:352:26
J. MillerC101430-3216:532:15
W. CuylleLW000050-1717:120:35
T. RaddyshRW000400-1015:560:33
G. PerreaultRW000110-1015:260:44
N. LabaC000110-1014:480:00
A. LafrenièreLW000200-4014:150:36
J. BrodzinskiC000001-208:340:00
S. CarrickC000021-278:100:00
M. RempeC000021-208:080:00
M. RobertsonD011430-2020:160:00
V. GavrikovD000201-2025:322:24
B. SchneiderD000330-2024:190:00
W. BorgenD000200-2018:040:00
S. MorrowD000003-4017:050:36
C. SoucyD000000-4011:390:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Quick20146.70031:26Loss
S. Martin14104.71428:34

BOS Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
D. PastrnakRW066510+5019:262:26
M. KhusnutdinovC415412+6015:340:48
F. MintenC213442+4017:191:55
P. ZachaC303300+1015:262:26
E. LindholmC022021+2012:052:26
A. SteevesC011441+2016:021:21
C. MittelstadtC011010+1015:441:18
V. ArvidssonLW011301+2015:041:22
S. KuralyC0001100517:301:11
T. JeannotLW0001310017:040:58
M. KastelicC00002101513:520:58
M. GeekieC000110006:141:27
C. McAvoyD112111+3021:262:12
H. JokiharjuD022320+5018:471:11
N. ZadorovD011140+4019:520:00
J. AspirotD011010+5018:380:00
A. PeekeD0001130418:380:24
M. LohreiD0002010218:201:22
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Swayman29272.93160:00Win
J. Korpisalo000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYR

Line 1A. Panarin16:09M. Zibanejad15:14W. Cuylle15:00
Line 2T. Raddysh14:49G. Perreault14:42N. Laba13:40
Line 3V. Trocheck15:49J. Miller13:50A. Lafrenière13:39
Line 4J. Brodzinski8:34M. Rempe8:08S. Carrick7:21
Pair 1V. Gavrikov19:37B. Schneider20:54
Pair 2W. Borgen16:46M. Robertson19:00
Pair 3C. Soucy11:39S. Morrow16:29

BOS

Line 1S. Kuraly14:17T. Jeannot15:32M. Kastelic11:46
Line 2D. Pastrnak17:00M. Khusnutdinov13:56E. Lindholm9:00
Line 3C. Mittelstadt14:26V. Arvidsson13:42P. Zacha13:00
Line 4A. Steeves14:41F. Minten14:40M. Geekie4:47
Pair 1A. Peeke17:54M. Lohrei16:58
Pair 2C. McAvoy17:13J. Aspirot17:40
Pair 3N. Zadorov17:53H. Jokiharju16:55

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreNYR 2.9, BOS 3.0NYR 2, BOS 10
Total goals6.012
Shots on goalNYR 26.2, BOS 27.9NYR 29, BOS 34
Win chanceBOS 52%BOS won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
BOS D. Pastrnak3.551.18639%0
NYR A. Panarin3.221.21135%0
NYR M. Zibanejad2.720.93229%1
NYR J. Miller2.341.02131%1
NYR V. Trocheck2.320.87128%0
BOS V. Arvidsson2.330.55120%0
BOS M. Geekie2.210.78030%0
NYR W. Cuylle2.100.51021%0
NYR A. Lafrenière2.020.62023%0
BOS E. Lindholm1.900.62221%0
BOS C. McAvoy1.810.5729%1
BOS P. Zacha1.530.60318%3
BOS F. Minten1.540.41317%2
NYR V. Gavrikov1.520.3808%0
NYR J. Brodzinski1.400.33014%0
BOS S. Kuraly1.410.27011%0
BOS N. Zadorov1.410.3118%0
BOS M. Kastelic1.300.26012%0
BOS C. Mittelstadt1.300.50117%0
NYR S. Morrow1.300.3105%0
NYR B. Schneider1.330.2606%0
BOS A. Steeves1.240.38117%0
NYR T. Raddysh1.240.32013%0
BOS A. Peeke1.110.2004%0
BOS T. Jeannot1.110.30012%0
NYR W. Borgen1.020.2105%0
NYR S. Carrick1.000.1908%0
NYR N. Laba1.010.27011%0
NYR G. Perreault1.010.28011%0
BOS M. Lohrei1.020.3105%0
BOS H. Jokiharju1.030.2023%0
NYR M. Robertson1.040.2215%0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov0.940.30511%4
NYR C. Soucy0.800.1705%0
BOS J. Aspirot0.800.1316%0
NYR M. Rempe0.700.1508%0

Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.