Game Recap: NYR 0, BOS 3, September 29, 2026

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Game Recap

NYR0

FinalTue, Sep 29, 2026Every game that night

BOS3

BOS beat NYR 3-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.57 expected goals to 1.81. F. Minten led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). O. Bjorkstrand had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. J. Swayman stopped 24 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYR	0	0	0	0
BOS	0	0	3	3

3rd 16:14BOSF. Minten0.10 xG
3rd 17:06BOSJ. Peterka0.19 xG
3rd 17:29BOSM. KastelicEN0.92 xG

Team Stats

NYRBOS

24Shots on goal23

1.81Expected goals3.57

46Shot attempts55

225v5 shots on goal21

0/1Power play0/1

37Hits36

12Blocked shots16

2Penalty minutes2

20Giveaways9

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 1.81 xGBOS 3.57 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR23 on goal, 0 scored

BOS23 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Zibanejad	C	2	2	0	-1	0	18:31	1:47
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	4	0	-1	0	18:17	1:34
G. Perreault	RW	0	0	1	-1	0	16:20	0:44
J. Miller	C	2	2	0	-1	0	16:12	1:16
J. Veleno	C	0	3	3	0	0	15:57	0:00
P. Dorofeyev	RW	5	1	0	-1	0	15:49	1:16
W. Cuylle	LW	3	2	0	-2	0	15:03	0:26
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	4	0	0	0	0	14:33	0:00
E. Tolvanen	RW	2	4	0	-1	0	13:56	0:43
T. Kartye	LW	0	3	0	-1	0	13:20	0:01
N. Laba	C	0	2	0	-2	2	12:56	0:00
M. Rempe	C	1	6	0	0	0	9:49	0:00
S. Durzi	D	1	1	1	0	0	23:15	0:47
M. Pettersson	D	1	1	2	0	0	23:08	0:13
V. Gavrikov	D	1	0	2	-1	0	19:58	0:00
A. Fox	D	0	0	1	-2	0	18:25	1:13
A. Smits	D	0	2	1	-1	0	16:54	0:00
B. Schneider	D	2	4	1	-1	0	16:14	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	22	20	2	.909	59:23	Loss
J. Korpisalo	0	0	0	–	0:00

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Minten	C	1	1	2	3	1	0	+2	0	14:48	0:45
J. Peterka	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	17:09	1:29
E. Lindholm	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	15:59	0:39
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	+2	0	13:23	0:00
M. Kastelic	C	1	0	1	1	3	3	+2	0	13:07	0:00
D. Pastrnak	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	+1	0	17:32	1:28
M. Geekie	C	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	16:18	1:15
P. Zacha	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	15:24	1:13
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	15:01	0:00
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	14:28	0:31
J. Hagens	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	13:27	0:32
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	2	13:13	0:00
M. Lohrei	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	19:21	1:07
H. Lindholm	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+2	0	18:37	0:53
C. Clifton	D	0	0	0	2	3	2	0	0	23:23	0:08
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	1	8	1	0	0	21:54	0:00
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	1	4	1	+2	0	17:43	0:00
J. Aspirot	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	17:13	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Swayman	24	24	0	1.000	60:00	Win
M. DiPietro	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYR

Line 1M. Zibanejad15:55A. Lafrenière16:06G. Perreault15:10

Line 2O. Bjorkstrand14:33P. Dorofeyev14:22J. Miller14:03

Line 3W. Cuylle14:08N. Laba12:56E. Tolvanen12:55

Line 4J. Veleno14:27T. Kartye11:53M. Rempe9:49

Pair 1M. Pettersson21:21S. Durzi21:02

Pair 2V. Gavrikov19:06A. Fox16:35

Pair 3B. Schneider15:40A. Smits16:54

BOS

Line 1D. Pastrnak15:39J. Peterka15:18E. Lindholm13:58

Line 2P. Zacha13:41M. Geekie15:03C. Mittelstadt13:57

Line 3S. Kuraly14:26T. Jeannot13:09M. Kastelic12:21

Line 4M. Khusnutdinov12:21F. Minten13:18J. Hagens12:55

Pair 1C. Clifton22:08N. Zadorov20:52

Pair 2H. Lindholm17:00W. Borgen16:57

Pair 3M. Lohrei17:28J. Aspirot16:24

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

9 of 20 overs hit (45%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.5	+108	-130	4	Over
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.5	-128	+100	2	Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev	2.5	-140	+111	5	Over
NYR A. Fox	1.5	-135	+116	0	Under
NYR A. Lafrenière	1.5	-175	+150	0	Under
BOS C. Mittelstadt	1.5	+130	-175	3	Over
BOS E. Lindholm	1.5	-125	+104	0	Under
NYR E. Tolvanen	1.5	-120	-115	2	Over
BOS F. Minten	1.5	+100	-122	3	Over
NYR G. Perreault	1.5	-110	-105	0	Under
BOS H. Lindholm	1.5	-102	-110	0	Under
BOS J. Hagens	1.5	-114	-105	1	Under
NYR J. Miller	1.5	-145	+126	2	Over
BOS J. Peterka	1.5	-165	+140	1	Under
BOS M. Geekie	1.5	-155	+126	1	Under
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	1.5	+170	-230	0	Under
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	1.5	+130	-160	4	Over
BOS P. Zacha	1.5	-115	-106	3	Over
NYR W. Cuylle	1.5	+100	-125	3	Over
NYR N. Laba	0.5	-250	–	0	Under

3 of 35 overs hit (9%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
NYR A. Fox	0.5	+550	-1200	0	Under
NYR A. Lafrenière	0.5	+260	-320	0	Under
NYR B. Schneider	0.5	+1700	-5000	0	Under
BOS C. Clifton	0.5	+2300	-4000	0	Under
BOS C. Mittelstadt	0.5	+470	-800	0	Under
BOS D. Pastrnak	0.5	+150	-175	0	Under
BOS E. Lindholm	0.5	+410	-500	0	Under
NYR E. Tolvanen	0.5	+410	-600	0	Under
BOS F. Minten	0.5	+380	-700	1	Over
NYR G. Perreault	0.5	+350	-550	0	Under
BOS H. Lindholm	0.5	+950	-1200	0	Under
BOS J. Aspirot	0.5	+2200	-2800	0	Under
BOS J. Hagens	0.5	+425	-750	0	Under
NYR J. Miller	0.5	+290	-350	0	Under
BOS J. Peterka	0.5	+230	-320	1	Over
NYR J. Veleno	0.5	+1200	-2500	0	Under
BOS M. Geekie	0.5	+210	-275	0	Under
BOS M. Kastelic	0.5	+650	-1000	1	Over
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	0.5	+700	-1400	0	Under
BOS M. Lohrei	0.5	+1000	-3500	0	Under
NYR M. Pettersson	0.5	+1800	-4000	0	Under
NYR M. Rempe	0.5	+1300	–	0	Under
NYR M. Zibanejad	0.5	+195	-240	0	Under
NYR N. Laba	0.5	+725	-1400	0	Under
BOS N. Zadorov	0.5	+2200	–	0	Under
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	0.5	+475	-750	0	Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev	0.5	+171	-230	0	Under
BOS P. Zacha	0.5	+280	-390	0	Under
NYR S. Durzi	0.5	+1000	-2800	0	Under
BOS S. Kuraly	0.5	+1200	-2000	0	Under
BOS T. Jeannot	0.5	+900	-1400	0	Under
NYR T. Kartye	0.5	+900	-1600	0	Under
NYR V. Gavrikov	0.5	+1100	-2500	0	Under
BOS W. Borgen	0.5	+1700	-5000	0	Under
NYR W. Cuylle	0.5	+425	-800	0	Under

5 of 27 overs hit (19%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
NYR A. Fox	0.5	-110	-120	0	Under
NYR A. Lafrenière	0.5	+175	-230	0	Under
BOS C. Clifton	0.5	+400	–	0	Under
BOS C. Mittelstadt	0.5	+255	-360	0	Under
BOS D. Pastrnak	0.5	+100	-135	0	Under
BOS E. Lindholm	0.5	+255	-350	1	Over
NYR E. Tolvanen	0.5	+360	-525	0	Under
BOS F. Minten	0.5	+360	-525	1	Over
NYR G. Perreault	0.5	+300	-425	0	Under
BOS H. Lindholm	0.5	+150	-200	1	Over
BOS J. Hagens	0.5	+310	-450	0	Under
NYR J. Miller	0.5	+134	-165	0	Under
BOS J. Peterka	0.5	+205	-275	0	Under
BOS M. Geekie	0.5	+215	-260	0	Under
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	0.5	+390	-575	1	Over
BOS M. Lohrei	0.5	+320	–	1	Over
NYR M. Pettersson	0.5	+340	-500	0	Under
NYR M. Zibanejad	0.5	+132	-165	0	Under
NYR N. Laba	0.5	+400	-600	0	Under
BOS N. Zadorov	0.5	+330	-475	0	Under
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	0.5	+310	-450	0	Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev	0.5	+225	-310	0	Under
BOS P. Zacha	0.5	+176	-230	0	Under
NYR S. Durzi	0.5	+200	-285	0	Under
NYR V. Gavrikov	0.5	+280	-400	0	Under
BOS W. Borgen	0.5	+330	–	0	Under
NYR W. Cuylle	0.5	+350	-525	0	Under

6 of 27 overs hit (22%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
NYR A. Fox	0.5	-132	+115	0	Under
NYR A. Lafrenière	0.5	-118	-105	0	Under
BOS C. Clifton	0.5	+330	–	0	Under
BOS C. Mittelstadt	0.5	+140	-190	0	Under
BOS D. Pastrnak	0.5	-220	+180	0	Under
BOS E. Lindholm	0.5	+140	-170	1	Over
NYR E. Tolvanen	0.5	+175	-240	0	Under
BOS F. Minten	0.5	+160	-215	2	Over
NYR G. Perreault	0.5	+145	-180	0	Under
BOS H. Lindholm	0.5	+120	-150	1	Over
BOS J. Hagens	0.5	+165	-225	0	Under
NYR J. Miller	0.5	-135	+110	0	Under
BOS J. Peterka	0.5	-115	-115	1	Over
BOS M. Geekie	0.5	-120	-110	0	Under
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	0.5	+230	-320	1	Over
BOS M. Lohrei	0.5	+240	–	1	Over
NYR M. Pettersson	0.5	+260	-360	0	Under
NYR M. Zibanejad	0.5	-160	+130	0	Under
NYR N. Laba	0.5	+250	-350	0	Under
BOS N. Zadorov	0.5	+270	-380	0	Under
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	0.5	+170	-230	0	Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev	0.5	-120	-110	0	Under
BOS P. Zacha	0.5	-110	+100	0	Under
NYR S. Durzi	0.5	+155	-210	0	Under
NYR V. Gavrikov	0.5	+215	-290	0	Under
BOS W. Borgen	0.5	+265	–	0	Under
NYR W. Cuylle	0.5	+150	-200	0	Under

0 of 16 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
NYR A. Fox	0.5	+150	-215	Under
NYR A. Lafrenière	0.5	+240	-375	Under
BOS C. Mittelstadt	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
BOS D. Pastrnak	0.5	+170	-215	Under
BOS E. Lindholm	0.5	+390	-1000	Under
NYR E. Tolvanen	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
NYR G. Perreault	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
BOS H. Lindholm	0.5	+210	-290	Under
NYR J. Miller	0.5	+170	-240	Under
BOS J. Peterka	0.5	+290	-500	Under
BOS M. Geekie	0.5	+270	-375	Under
BOS M. Lohrei	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
NYR M. Zibanejad	0.5	+165	-225	Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev	0.5	+240	-375	Under
BOS P. Zacha	0.5	+250	-375	Under
NYR W. Cuylle	0.5	+500	-1600	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
NYR I. Shesterkin	23.5	-118	-105	20	Under
BOS J. Swayman	23.5	-105	-112	24	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJoonas Korpisalo NYR Faces BOS, his team until May 20260 saves on 0

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 3.0, BOS 3.1	NYR 0, BOS 3
Total goals	6.1	3
Shots on goal	NYR 25.9, BOS 27.8	NYR 24, BOS 23
Win chance	BOS 53%	BOS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.4	4	1.25	0	38%	0
NYR P. Dorofeyev	2.8	5	0.64	0	30%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.5	2	0.84	0	27%	0
BOS M. Geekie	2.2	1	0.77	0	30%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.1	0	0.64	0	23%	0
NYR J. Miller	1.9	2	0.77	0	23%	0
BOS E. Lindholm	1.8	0	0.64	1	23%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.8	3	0.73	0	22%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.7	3	0.39	0	17%	0
BOS J. Peterka	1.7	1	0.52	1	21%	1
NYR E. Tolvanen	1.7	2	0.38	0	16%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.7	0	0.82	0	13%	0
NYR G. Perreault	1.6	0	0.46	0	17%	0
BOS H. Lindholm	1.5	0	0.36	1	6%	0
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	1.5	4	0.37	0	15%	0
BOS F. Minten	1.5	3	0.39	2	17%	1
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.4	1	0.37	0	9%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.4	1	0.26	0	6%	0
BOS C. Mittelstadt	1.3	3	0.55	0	17%	0
BOS S. Kuraly	1.2	2	0.27	0	10%	0
BOS J. Hagens	1.2	1	0.29	0	12%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.2	1	0.25	1	11%	1
NYR B. Schneider	1.2	2	0.23	0	5%	0
NYR T. Kartye	1.2	0	0.33	0	13%	0
NYR S. Durzi	1.1	1	0.34	0	7%	0
NYR N. Laba	1.0	0	0.30	0	11%	0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	1.0	0	0.37	1	14%	0
BOS T. Jeannot	1.0	0	0.25	0	10%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	1.0	0	0.28	1	6%	0
BOS W. Borgen	0.9	1	0.20	0	5%	0
BOS J. Aspirot	0.9	0	0.22	0	4%	0
NYR M. Pettersson	0.8	1	0.27	0	4%	0
BOS C. Clifton	0.8	2	0.16	0	3%	0
NYR M. Rempe	0.7	1	0.12	0	6%	0
NYR J. Veleno	0.6	0	0.12	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.