NYR beat BUF 3-2, with the chances close: 2.64 expected goals to 2.82. A. Fox led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). M. Zibanejad had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. I. Shesterkin stopped 29 of 31.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYR 2.64 xGBUF 2.82 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Trocheck | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 21:59 | 3:44 |
| A. Panarin | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:32 | 3:30 |
| R. Smith | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:53 | 2:24 |
| M. Zibanejad | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 17:47 | 3:10 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:11 | 0:00 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 16:56 | 2:34 |
| C. Kreider | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:01 | 3:28 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:43 | 2:58 |
| F. Chytil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:58 | 2:36 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:22 | 0:00 |
| B. Berard | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:38 | 0:00 |
| A. Edstrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:57 | 0:00 |
| A. Fox | D | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 24:14 | 3:32 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 22:26 | 0:00 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:12 | 0:00 |
| V. Mancini | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:48 | 0:00 |
| Z. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:43 | 2:38 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:42 | 0:06 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Shesterkin | 31 | 29 | 2 | .935 | 59:58 | Win |
| J. Quick | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Thompson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:26 | 2:47 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:10 | 2:48 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:17 | 1:14 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:48 | 1:24 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:08 | 2:38 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:18 | 2:34 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:46 | 0:00 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:02 | 1:22 |
| J. Greenway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:16 | 0:00 |
| J.Kulich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:49 | 1:04 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:36 | 0:00 |
| N. Aube-Kubel | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6:43 | 0:00 |
| O. Power | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:33 | 2:56 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 25:25 | 1:13 |
| R. Johnson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 17:25 | 0:00 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:39 | 0:00 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:58 | 0:00 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:58 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 27 | 25 | 2 | .926 | 57:35 | Loss |
| J. Reimer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYR 3.3, BUF 3.1 | NYR 3, BUF 2 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | NYR 29.4, BUF 32.2 | NYR 28, BUF 31 |
| Win chance | NYR 52% | NYR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.5 | 5 | 0.92 | 1 | 37% | 1 |
| NYR A. Panarin | 3.1 | 2 | 1.25 | 1 | 35% | 0 |
| BUF D. Cozens | 2.7 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.6 | 1 | 0.85 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.6 | 3 | 0.61 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| NYR C. Kreider | 2.5 | 1 | 0.71 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.4 | 4 | 0.84 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.4 | 5 | 0.88 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.3 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 2.3 | 2 | 0.68 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| BUF J.Kulich | 2.1 | 3 | 0.23 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYR F. Chytil | 2.0 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.8 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NYR R. Smith | 1.7 | 2 | 0.52 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| NYR A. Fox | 1.6 | 1 | 0.81 | 3 | 13% | 1 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.6 | 3 | 0.47 | 2 | 7% | 1 |
| NYR B. Berard | 1.6 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BUF J. Greenway | 1.5 | 3 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.5 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NYR K. Kakko | 1.4 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.4 | 2 | 0.52 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.3 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.2 | 3 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR K. Miller | 1.2 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF H. Jokiharju | 1.1 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR Z. Jones | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR V. Mancini | 1.1 | 3 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.1 | 2 | 0.33 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF N. Aube-Kubel | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR R. Lindgren | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 0.8 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| BUF R. Johnson | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR A. Edstrom | 0.8 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.