CAR beat NYR 4-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.23 expected goals to 1.83. CAR outshot NYR 31 to 22. J. Drury led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). S. Martin stopped 19 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| CAR | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
- 1st 4:53CARJ. Drury0.02 xG
- 1st 17:38NYRJ. Brodzinski0.14 xG
- 2nd 1:12CARS. JarvisPP0.18 xG
- 2nd 9:13NYRB. Berard0.12 xG
- 2nd 18:49NYRA. Edstrom0.28 xG
- 3rd 9:54CARJ. Kotkaniemi0.03 xG
- 3rd 12:01CARJ. BlakePP0.13 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYR 1.83 xGCAR 3.23 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Cuylle | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 19:40 | 1:47 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:56 | 1:24 |
| B. Berard | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:47 | 0:00 |
| A. Edstrom | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:53 | 0:04 |
| J. Vesey | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:55 | 0:08 |
| J. Brodzinski | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:50 | 1:31 |
| V. Trocheck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 22:56 | 2:03 |
| M. Zibanejad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:13 | 1:59 |
| A. Panarin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:02 | 2:09 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:29 | 2:04 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:01 | 1:52 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:26 | 0:23 |
| A. Fox | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 23:18 | 1:59 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:57 | 0:00 |
| Z. Jones | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 15:18 | 1:44 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 21:21 | 0:33 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 19:25 | 0:20 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:20 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Shesterkin | 31 | 27 | 4 | .871 | 57:42 | Loss |
| J. Quick | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:54 | 6:28 |
| J. Drury | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:34 | 1:03 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:39 | 6:26 |
| S. Jarvis | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:16 | 6:07 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:47 | 1:03 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:52 | 0:51 |
| J. Blake | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:32 | 1:24 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:43 | 0:00 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:51 | 6:28 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:00 | 0:00 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:42 | 0:00 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:01 | 0:00 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:00 | 6:33 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:32 | 0:00 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:37 | 0:14 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:03 | 0:58 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:14 | 0:00 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:17 | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYR 2.7, CAR 3.4 | NYR 3, CAR 4 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | NYR 25.6, CAR 37.3 | NYR 22, CAR 31 |
| Win chance | CAR 61% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.9 | 3 | 0.77 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CAR M. Necas | 2.9 | 2 | 0.82 | 2 | 26% | 0 |
| NYR A. Panarin | 2.7 | 1 | 1.01 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.7 | 3 | 0.95 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.2 | 4 | 0.69 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 2.2 | 1 | 0.60 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.1 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.1 | 3 | 0.69 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 2.0 | 1 | 0.51 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.0 | 1 | 0.71 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.9 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 1.9 | 3 | 0.36 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| CAR J. Drury | 1.9 | 3 | 0.36 | 2 | 11% | 1 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.7 | 1 | 0.55 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.7 | 3 | 0.38 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.6 | 1 | 0.41 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.6 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR R. Smith | 1.6 | 0 | 0.48 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.6 | 2 | 0.39 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.6 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.5 | 3 | 0.29 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.5 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR J. Trouba | 1.4 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.4 | 0 | 0.35 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.3 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR K. Kakko | 1.3 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYR A. Fox | 1.3 | 1 | 0.63 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| NYR J. Brodzinski | 1.2 | 2 | 0.21 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| NYR K. Miller | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR Z. Jones | 0.9 | 2 | 0.22 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR J. Vesey | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 0.9 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR R. Lindgren | 0.7 | 1 | 0.18 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR A. Edstrom | 0.7 | 3 | 0.15 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.