CAR beat NYR 7-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.24 expected goals to 2.77. S. Jarvis led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). J. Miller had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. P. Kochetkov stopped 28 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| CAR | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
- 1st 9:02CARJ. Chatfield0.03 xG
- 1st 17:46CARS. Jarvis0.18 xG
- 2nd 2:02CARJ. Blake0.25 xG
- 2nd 12:59CARM. Jankowski0.12 xG
- 2nd 19:43NYRW. Cuylle0.04 xG
- 3rd 3:45CARJ. Staal0.14 xG
- 3rd 6:07NYRJ. MillerPP0.16 xG
- 3rd 9:02NYRA. Fox0.13 xG
- 3rd 16:27CARJ. MartinookEN0.53 xG
- 3rd 17:59CARL. StankovenEN0.64 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYR 2.77 xGCAR 4.24 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Panarin | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 22:16 | 3:01 |
| V. Trocheck | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 2 | 20:23 | 1:01 |
| J. Miller | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 20:03 | 3:01 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:54 | 0:00 |
| M. Zibanejad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 19:48 | 3:01 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:17 | 0:00 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:01 | 0:00 |
| J. Brodzinski | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 12:57 | 0:00 |
| B. Berard | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:46 | 0:00 |
| C. Kreider | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:31 | 2:00 |
| M. Rempe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 10:00 | 0:00 |
| J. Parssinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:47 | 0:00 |
| A. Fox | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:19 | 2:51 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 21:48 | 0:10 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 19:37 | 0:00 |
| W. Borgen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:06 | 0:00 |
| U. Vaakanainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:10 | 0:00 |
| C. Soucy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:54 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Shesterkin | 26 | 21 | 5 | .808 | 58:23 | Loss |
| J. Quick | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Jarvis | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 17:38 | 1:36 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 17:00 | 1:37 |
| J. Staal | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:13 | 0:00 |
| J. Blake | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:00 | 1:36 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 15:27 | 0:24 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 14:27 | 0:00 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:54 | 0:00 |
| T. Jost | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12:15 | 0:24 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:48 | 0:00 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:46 | 1:36 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:10 | 0:24 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:53 | 0:00 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 22:25 | 0:00 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 21:29 | 0:00 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 18:53 | 0:00 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 19:51 | 1:47 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:52 | 0:23 |
| S. Morrow | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:58 | 0:13 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kochetkov | 31 | 28 | 3 | .903 | 60:00 | Win |
| F. Andersen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYR 2.8, CAR 3.4 | NYR 3, CAR 7 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 10 |
| Shots on goal | NYR 24.4, CAR 33.2 | NYR 31, CAR 28 |
| Win chance | CAR 59% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.7 | 4 | 0.82 | 3 | 29% | 1 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.6 | 1 | 0.94 | 2 | 32% | 0 |
| NYR A. Panarin | 2.6 | 3 | 0.96 | 2 | 30% | 0 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 2.4 | 5 | 0.49 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| CAR J. Blake | 2.3 | 1 | 0.53 | 2 | 21% | 1 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.1 | 1 | 0.72 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.1 | 4 | 0.67 | 2 | 23% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.1 | 0 | 0.64 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.0 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR J. Miller | 1.8 | 6 | 0.88 | 2 | 26% | 1 |
| CAR S. Morrow | 1.8 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR C. Kreider | 1.8 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.8 | 0 | 0.40 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.7 | 3 | 0.53 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.7 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| NYR J. Brodzinski | 1.6 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.6 | 4 | 0.45 | 2 | 16% | 1 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.6 | 1 | 0.46 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 1.6 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.5 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.5 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.5 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.4 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| NYR A. Fox | 1.4 | 3 | 0.63 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| NYR B. Berard | 1.4 | 4 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 1.2 | 2 | 0.34 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| CAR T. Jost | 1.2 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR K. Miller | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR W. Borgen | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYR U. Vaakanainen | 0.8 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| NYR C. Soucy | 0.8 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR M. Rempe | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYR J. Parssinen | 0.6 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.