Game Recap: NYR 4, CAR 2, November 26, 2025

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Game Recap

NYR4

FinalWed, Nov 26, 2025Every game that night

CAR2

NYR beat CAR 4-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.63 expected goals to 4.17. CAR outshot NYR 38 to 18. S. Gostisbehere led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Blake had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. I. Shesterkin stopped 36 of 38.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYR	1	1	2	4
CAR	0	1	1	2

1st 16:53NYRN. Laba0.08 xG
2nd 5:04CARS. GostisbeherePP0.15 xG
2nd 18:56NYRA. Panarin0.12 xG
3rd 0:45NYRV. Trocheck0.19 xG
3rd 10:53CARS. Jarvis0.10 xG
3rd 18:17NYRW. CuylleEN0.67 xG

Team Stats

NYRCAR

18Shots on goal38

2.63Expected goals4.17

45Shot attempts78

165v5 shots on goal26

0/1Power play1/5

34Hits26

20Blocked shots10

10Penalty minutes2

16Giveaways22

3Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 2.63 xGCAR 4.17 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR18 on goal, 4 scored

CAR38 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Panarin	LW	1	1	2	1	0	0	+1	2	22:00	2:00
V. Trocheck	C	1	0	1	2	4	2	+1	0	22:31	1:39
M. Zibanejad	C	0	1	1	2	2	2	+1	2	18:59	1:39
J. Miller	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	2	18:00	1:36
W. Cuylle	LW	1	0	1	3	2	1	+1	0	15:08	0:21
N. Laba	C	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	2	13:41	0:00
T. Raddysh	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	9:23	0:21
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	0	0	0	6	0	+1	0	15:49	0:24
J. Brodzinski	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	11:50	0:00
B. Berard	LW	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	2	11:05	0:00
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:46	0:00
A. Edstrom	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	7:43	0:00
A. Fox	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+2	0	23:08	1:41
M. Robertson	D	0	1	1	1	3	6	+2	0	19:00	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	+1	0	27:07	0:00
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	19:14	0:19
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	1	1	4	0	0	17:26	0:00
U. Vaakanainen	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	11:56	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	38	36	2	.947	60:00	Win
D. Garand	0	0	0	–	0:00

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Aho	C	0	2	2	4	1	0	-1	2	19:23	4:41
S. Jarvis	C	1	0	1	3	4	1	-2	0	20:10	4:47
N. Ehlers	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	17:46	4:30
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	0	0	4	5	0	-2	0	19:31	4:43
J. Blake	RW	0	0	0	6	0	0	-1	0	18:29	3:38
L. Stankoven	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	16:48	2:27
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	15:19	2:33
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	13:22	0:00
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:08	0:00
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	11:04	0:00
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	10:18	0:00
J. Robidas	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	9:25	0:00
S. Gostisbehere	D	1	1	2	5	0	0	-3	0	21:19	5:06
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	24:08	2:32
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	23:21	2:08
A. Nikishin	D	0	0	0	2	3	2	0	0	16:31	0:12
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	-1	0	15:32	0:00
J. Nystrom	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:21	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Andersen	17	14	3	.824	58:05	Loss
B. Bussi	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYR

Line 1V. Trocheck16:22A. Panarin19:38J. Miller14:38

Line 2M. Zibanejad15:04A. Lafrenière14:59W. Cuylle11:47

Line 3J. Brodzinski11:50N. Laba11:36B. Berard11:05

Line 4T. Raddysh8:01A. Edstrom7:43S. Carrick7:20

Pair 1A. Fox20:44V. Gavrikov21:04

Pair 2C. Soucy15:33B. Schneider16:49

Pair 3U. Vaakanainen11:51M. Robertson13:46

CAR

Line 1S. Aho14:11S. Jarvis14:18A. Svechnikov14:17

Line 2L. Stankoven14:21J. Blake14:08N. Ehlers12:45

Line 3T. Hall12:29E. Robinson12:03M. Jankowski11:54

Line 4J. Martinook9:40W. Carrier10:18J. Robidas9:25

Pair 1S. Walker19:33K. Miller19:54

Pair 2S. Gostisbehere15:47J. Chatfield15:14

Pair 3A. Nikishin15:36J. Nystrom13:57

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamK'Andre Miller CAR Faces NYR, his team until Apr 20252 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 2.7, CAR 3.3	NYR 4, CAR 2
Total goals	5.9	6
Shots on goal	NYR 23.3, CAR 33.0	NYR 18, CAR 38
Win chance	CAR 60%	NYR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CAR S. Jarvis	2.7	3	0.88	1	31%	1
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.7	4	0.78	0	28%	0
CAR N. Ehlers	2.7	1	0.82	1	27%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.7	4	0.97	2	33%	0
NYR A. Panarin	2.6	1	1.02	2	31%	1
CAR S. Walker	2.3	2	0.31	0	9%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.3	2	0.74	1	24%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	2.2	2	0.50	0	19%	0
CAR J. Blake	2.1	6	0.53	0	20%	0
NYR J. Miller	2.0	0	0.91	1	28%	0
NYR V. Trocheck	2.0	2	0.70	1	24%	1
NYR W. Cuylle	1.9	3	0.52	1	20%	1
CAR T. Hall	1.8	1	0.53	0	19%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.7	5	0.62	2	10%	1
NYR A. Lafrenière	1.6	0	0.51	0	20%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.6	0	0.73	1	12%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.6	2	0.40	0	9%	0
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.4	2	0.34	0	14%	0
NYR B. Berard	1.4	3	0.25	0	12%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.4	2	0.29	0	6%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.3	0	0.32	0	13%	0
CAR J. Nystrom	1.3	1	0.20	0	3%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.3	1	0.23	0	7%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.3	1	0.40	0	14%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.2	1	0.25	0	12%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.1	0	0.29	0	6%	0
NYR N. Laba	1.0	1	0.26	1	12%	1
CAR M. Jankowski	1.0	1	0.28	0	14%	0
NYR T. Raddysh	0.9	1	0.24	1	10%	0
NYR B. Schneider	0.9	0	0.20	0	5%	0
NYR C. Soucy	0.8	1	0.17	0	5%	0
NYR S. Carrick	0.8	0	0.19	0	7%	0
NYR A. Edstrom	0.7	1	0.17	0	9%	0
NYR M. Robertson	0.7	1	0.09	1	4%	0
NYR U. Vaakanainen	0.6	0	0.16	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.