Game Recap: NYR 2, CAR 3 (OT), December 29, 2025

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Game Recap

NYR2

Final/OTMon, Dec 29, 2025Every game that night

CAR3

CAR beat NYR 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.42 expected goals to 2.40. CAR outshot NYR 35 to 20. S. Aho led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Blake had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. B. Bussi stopped 18 of 20.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
NYR	1	1	0	0	2
CAR	1	0	1	1	3

1st 1:39NYRV. GavrikovPP0.09 xG
1st 15:57CARS. AhoPP0.11 xG
2nd 13:00NYRJ. Brodzinski0.07 xG
3rd 9:11CARJ. Martinook0.22 xG
OT 4:47CARJ. BlakePP0.17 xG

Team Stats

NYRCAR

20Shots on goal35

2.40Expected goals4.42

39Shot attempts83

175v5 shots on goal25

1/2Power play2/4

23Hits25

18Blocked shots11

8Penalty minutes4

14Giveaways16

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 2.40 xGCAR 4.42 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR20 on goal, 2 scored

CAR35 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
V. Trocheck	C	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	21:53	1:33
A. Panarin	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	18:24	1:33
S. Carrick	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	11:43	0:00
J. Brodzinski	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	2	9:47	0:00
M. Zibanejad	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	19:41	1:33
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	2	2	3	0	0	18:08	0:57
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	0	0	2	0	3	-1	0	17:42	1:37
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	17:03	0:00
C. Sheary	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	15:19	0:57
G. Perreault	RW	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	14:50	0:53
N. Laba	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	12:53	0:50
M. Rempe	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	7:39	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	1	0	1	3	0	1	-1	0	26:25	1:33
M. Robertson	D	0	1	1	0	2	2	+1	2	20:29	0:07
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	3	3	3	-1	2	25:15	0:00
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	2	21:46	0:00
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	16:25	0:00
S. Morrow	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:55	0:57

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	35	32	3	.914	64:47	OT loss
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Aho	C	1	1	2	2	0	1	0	23:14	4:31
N. Ehlers	LW	0	2	2	2	0	0	0	19:25	4:53
J. Blake	RW	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	19:57	4:31
J. Martinook	LW	1	0	1	1	2	2	0	13:10	0:01
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	22:03	4:29
L. Stankoven	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	17:19	1:34
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	14:35	0:00
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:15	1:36
J. Staal	C	0	0	0	1	7	0	0	13:50	0:54
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	13:45	0:19
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	11:31	0:00
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	2	5	0	0	10:29	0:01
A. Nikishin	D	0	1	1	0	3	2	2	24:17	2:48
K. Miller	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	22:51	1:34
J. Chatfield	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	18:59	0:20
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	23:31	1:13
M. Reilly	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	16:19	0:00
J. Nystrom	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	14:53	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
B. Bussi	20	18	2	.900	64:01	Win
F. Andersen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYR

Line 1M. Zibanejad15:51A. Panarin16:21A. Lafrenière15:23

Line 2V. Trocheck14:37G. Perreault13:57W. Cuylle13:22

Line 3C. Sheary13:36T. Raddysh15:42N. Laba10:50

Line 4S. Carrick10:47J. Brodzinski9:01M. Rempe7:39

Pair 1V. Gavrikov19:18B. Schneider20:49

Pair 2W. Borgen20:40M. Robertson18:04

Pair 3C. Soucy13:51S. Morrow12:12

CAR

Line 1S. Aho16:33A. Svechnikov16:08L. Stankoven15:45

Line 2J. Blake13:41N. Ehlers13:13J. Kotkaniemi12:40

Line 3J. Staal11:21J. Martinook11:02W. Carrier10:28

Line 4T. Hall12:08M. Jankowski10:34E. Robinson13:36

Pair 1A. Nikishin18:57S. Walker19:51

Pair 2J. Chatfield17:10K. Miller18:33

Pair 3M. Reilly15:33J. Nystrom14:47

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamK'Andre Miller CAR Faces NYR, his team until Apr 20251 A, 0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 2.5, CAR 3.1	NYR 2, CAR 3
Total goals	5.6	5
Shots on goal	NYR 22.3, CAR 31.7	NYR 20, CAR 35
Win chance	CAR 59%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYR A. Panarin	3.0	1	1.14	1	34%	0
CAR N. Ehlers	2.7	2	0.77	2	26%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.6	3	0.76	0	26%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.5	1	0.85	0	27%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.5	2	0.94	2	32%	1
CAR S. Walker	2.2	3	0.27	0	8%	0
NYR V. Trocheck	2.2	2	0.83	1	27%	0
CAR J. Blake	2.2	5	0.60	1	23%	1
CAR L. Stankoven	2.2	2	0.47	0	18%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.9	2	0.57	0	21%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.8	0	0.50	0	19%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	1.7	2	0.55	0	21%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.7	0	0.34	1	8%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.6	4	0.37	0	16%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.6	1	0.46	0	18%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.5	0	0.34	1	7%	0
CAR M. Reilly	1.4	3	0.17	0	4%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.4	2	0.23	1	7%	0
NYR C. Sheary	1.3	0	0.33	0	12%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.3	2	0.25	0	13%	0
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.3	1	0.31	1	12%	1
CAR J. Martinook	1.2	1	0.35	1	13%	1
NYR S. Morrow	1.2	0	0.28	0	5%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.2	2	0.30	0	11%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.2	3	0.32	1	7%	1
CAR M. Jankowski	1.1	1	0.27	0	13%	0
CAR J. Nystrom	1.1	2	0.20	0	2%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.0	3	0.22	0	5%	0
NYR N. Laba	1.0	2	0.30	0	12%	0
NYR T. Raddysh	1.0	2	0.27	0	11%	0
NYR S. Carrick	0.8	0	0.16	1	7%	0
NYR G. Perreault	0.8	1	0.29	0	11%	0
NYR W. Borgen	0.8	0	0.17	0	4%	0
NYR M. Robertson	0.8	0	0.15	1	4%	0
NYR C. Soucy	0.7	0	0.15	0	5%	0
NYR M. Rempe	0.6	0	0.13	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.