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Game Recap
NYR2
CBJ1
NYR beat CBJ 2-1 in a shootout, with the chances close: 3.65 expected goals to 3.23. M. Zibanejad had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. I. Shesterkin stopped 26 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| CBJ | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 2nd 5:42NYRM. ZibanejadPP0.52 xG
- 2nd 15:20CBJD. VoronkovPP0.45 xG
Team Stats
NYRCBJ
33Shots on goal27
3.65Expected goals3.23
77Shot attempts56
275v5 shots on goal21
1/2Power play1/2
31Hits27
12Blocked shots19
7Penalty minutes9
17Giveaways19
4Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYR 3.65 xGCBJ 3.23 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Panarin | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:35 | 1:34 |
| M. Zibanejad | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:44 | 1:30 |
| J. Miller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:23 | 1:30 |
| V. Trocheck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:54 | 0:03 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:54 | 0:16 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:36 | 1:47 |
| N. Laba | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:21 | 0:15 |
| C. Sheary | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:17 | 0:00 |
| G. Perreault | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:37 | 0:00 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:21 | 0:00 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9:44 | 0:00 |
| A. Edstrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:06 | 0:00 |
| A. Fox | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28:38 | 1:50 |
| V. Gavrikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 27:00 | 0:14 |
| C. Soucy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:57 | 0:05 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:16 | 0:00 |
| M. Robertson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:17 | 0:00 |
| U. Vaakanainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:29 | 0:06 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Shesterkin | 27 | 26 | 1 | .963 | 64:39 | Win |
| J. Quick | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Marchenko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:41 | 1:40 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:19 | 1:40 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:20 | 0:00 |
| S. Monahan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:14 | 1:40 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:42 | 1:40 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:05 | 0:00 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 14:04 | 0:00 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:55 | 0:00 |
| M. Wood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:49 | 0:00 |
| K. Johnson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:12 | 0:00 |
| L. Del Bel Belluz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:33 | 0:00 |
| E. Chinakhov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:13 | 0:00 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 27:18 | 1:40 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 27:47 | 0:00 |
| D. Mateychuk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 25:43 | 0:00 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:03 | 0:00 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 13:57 | 0:00 |
| J. Christiansen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:35 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Greaves | 33 | 32 | 1 | .970 | 65:00 | OT loss |
| E. Merzlikins | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
NYR
Line 1V. Trocheck17:11A. Lafrenière17:56A. Panarin17:27
Line 2M. Zibanejad14:07J. Miller15:23G. Perreault12:24
Line 4S. Carrick9:44T. Raddysh10:21A. Edstrom8:06
Pair 1V. Gavrikov23:19A. Fox22:49
Pair 2C. Soucy19:26B. Schneider17:53
Pair 3U. Vaakanainen13:23M. Robertson11:55
CBJ
Line 1K. Marchenko18:02A. Fantilli17:12D. Voronkov15:31
Line 2C. Coyle15:12C. Sillinger16:50M. Olivier13:36
Line 3K. Johnson10:55S. Monahan15:28L. Belluz8:33
Line 4M. Wood12:21I. Lundestrom12:20E. Chinakhov7:02
Pair 1Z. Werenski21:40I. Provorov23:31
Pair 2D. Severson18:50D. Mateychuk22:21
Pair 3D. Fabbro13:46J. Christiansen8:35
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYR 3.3, CBJ 3.2 | NYR 2, CBJ 1 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | NYR 28.9, CBJ 30.5 | NYR 33, CBJ 27 |
| Win chance | NYR 52% | NYR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 3.4 | 5 | 0.81 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| NYR A. Panarin | 2.9 | 6 | 1.13 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.8 | 4 | 0.86 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.7 | 7 | 0.89 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.6 | 1 | 0.75 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| NYR J. Miller | 2.4 | 1 | 1.03 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 2.3 | 3 | 0.57 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 2.2 | 3 | 0.67 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| NYR A. Fox | 2.0 | 4 | 0.90 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Monahan | 2.0 | 1 | 0.77 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.0 | 1 | 0.67 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Wood | 1.9 | 4 | 0.32 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 1.9 | 2 | 0.60 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 1.9 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.5 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.5 | 3 | 0.56 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Coyle | 1.5 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CBJ E. Chinakhov | 1.5 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.4 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYR C. Sheary | 1.4 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYR V. Gavrikov | 1.4 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR T. Raddysh | 1.3 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NYR G. Perreault | 1.2 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.2 | 3 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR N. Laba | 1.2 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CBJ L. Belluz | 1.1 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Mateychuk | 1.1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR C. Soucy | 1.1 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Fabbro | 1.1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYR M. Robertson | 0.9 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR A. Edstrom | 0.8 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYR U. Vaakanainen | 0.8 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Lundestrom | 0.7 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Christiansen | 0.6 | 0 | 0.08 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 15 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.