CGY beat NYR 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 5.13 expected goals to 1.86. CGY outshot NYR 49 to 29. M. Weegar led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). M. Weegar had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. D. Wolf stopped 27 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| CGY | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 7:26CGYM. Coronato0.10 xG
- 2nd 8:29CGYY. SharangovichPP0.06 xG
- 2nd 16:37NYRA. Lafrenière0.07 xG
- 2nd 16:53NYRW. Cuylle0.05 xG
- 3rd 10:35CGYC. Zary0.05 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYR 1.86 xGCGY 5.13 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:58 | 0:58 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:25 | 0:58 |
| V. Trocheck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 23:28 | 1:02 |
| A. Panarin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 20:11 | 1:02 |
| C. Kreider | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:39 | 1:02 |
| M. Zibanejad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:30 | 1:02 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:45 | 0:58 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:45 | 0:00 |
| J. Vesey | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:08 | 0:00 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:35 | 0:58 |
| J. Brodzinski | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:58 | 0:00 |
| A. Edstrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7:39 | 0:00 |
| A. Fox | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 23:00 | 1:02 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:48 | 0:00 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:44 | 0:00 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 20:23 | 0:00 |
| Z. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 16:23 | 0:58 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:29 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Shesterkin | 49 | 46 | 3 | .939 | 57:51 | Loss |
| J. Quick | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:26 | 4:02 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:56 | 3:58 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:34 | 4:07 |
| C. Zary | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:23 | 4:27 |
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:11 | 3:32 |
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:44 | 4:01 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:34 | 0:00 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:13 | 3:55 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:04 | 3:53 |
| K. Rooney | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:38 | 0:19 |
| J. Kirkland | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:32 | 0:17 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:16 | 0:00 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 22:56 | 4:15 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 24:55 | 3:59 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:29 | 0:10 |
| D. Miromanov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:15 | 0:50 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:48 | 0:00 |
| J. Bean | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:06 | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYR 3.2, CGY 2.9 | NYR 2, CGY 3 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | NYR 29.2, CGY 32.7 | NYR 29, CGY 49 |
| Win chance | NYR 55% | CGY won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.3 | 4 | 0.75 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| NYR A. Panarin | 2.9 | 3 | 1.15 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.6 | 6 | 0.51 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NYR C. Kreider | 2.5 | 1 | 0.72 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.4 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.4 | 5 | 0.82 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.4 | 7 | 0.49 | 3 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 2.4 | 4 | 0.57 | 2 | 25% | 1 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 2.3 | 5 | 0.67 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.2 | 1 | 0.84 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.2 | 4 | 0.40 | 2 | 18% | 1 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 1.9 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY C. Zary | 1.8 | 5 | 0.47 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 1.8 | 3 | 0.66 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.7 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYR R. Smith | 1.7 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NYR J. Trouba | 1.7 | 4 | 0.31 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.7 | 1 | 0.41 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| CGY A. Kuzmenko | 1.6 | 2 | 0.63 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CGY D. Miromanov | 1.5 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR A. Fox | 1.5 | 1 | 0.74 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| NYR K. Kakko | 1.4 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NYR J. Brodzinski | 1.3 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR K. Miller | 1.1 | 0 | 0.31 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR Z. Jones | 1.0 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR J. Vesey | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 1.0 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 0.9 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYR R. Lindgren | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY K. Rooney | 0.9 | 3 | 0.12 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 0.9 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| CGY J. Bean | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR A. Edstrom | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY J. Kirkland | 0.6 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.