Game Recap: NYR 1, CGY 5, October 26, 2025

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Game Recap

NYR1

FinalSun, Oct 26, 2025Every game that night

CGY5

CGY beat NYR 5-1, with the chances close: 2.80 expected goals to 2.40. B. Coleman led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). B. Coleman had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. D. Wolf stopped 30 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYR	1	0	0	1
CGY	2	1	2	5

1st 1:42CGYN. Kadri0.11 xG
1st 9:21CGYK. Bahl0.03 xG
1st 9:31NYRN. Laba0.13 xG
2nd 12:28CGYY. Sharangovich0.21 xG
3rd 6:42CGYB. ColemanSH0.09 xG
3rd 14:27CGYB. Coleman0.01 xG

Team Stats

NYRCGY

31Shots on goal30

2.40Expected goals2.80

67Shot attempts70

285v5 shots on goal24

0/1Power play0/3

28Hits18

21Blocked shots18

6Penalty minutes2

9Giveaways13

10Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 2.40 xGCGY 2.80 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR30 on goal, 1 scored

CGY29 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Laba	C	1	0	1	2	2	1	0	0	14:19	0:01
W. Cuylle	LW	0	1	1	0	6	1	-1	0	13:24	0:13
J. Miller	C	0	0	0	1	5	0	-1	2	20:43	1:47
A. Panarin	LW	0	0	0	7	0	1	-2	0	20:03	1:59
M. Zibanejad	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-4	2	18:54	1:47
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	16:09	0:00
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-3	0	16:04	2:00
C. Sheary	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	16:01	0:00
B. Othmann	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	12:31	0:00
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	10:11	0:00
J. Parssinen	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	8:35	0:00
A. Edstrom	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	8:35	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	0	1	1	3	0	5	0	0	24:04	0:11
A. Fox	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	22:09	1:49
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	4	0	3	0	0	20:45	0:13
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	-3	0	19:00	0:00
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-3	0	18:01	0:00
M. Robertson	D	0	0	0	0	3	3	0	2	14:32	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	30	25	5	.833	60:00	Loss
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kadri	C	1	1	2	4	2	1	+2	0	18:24	3:34
B. Coleman	LW	2	0	2	7	1	0	+2	0	18:24	2:36
M. Backlund	C	0	2	2	1	0	0	+2	0	16:43	0:00
J. Huberdeau	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	0	18:59	3:20
M. Frost	C	0	1	1	2	0	2	+2	0	16:55	3:20
Y. Sharangovich	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	16:23	2:40
J. Farabee	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	15:24	3:24
C. Zary	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	2	14:07	2:26
S. Honzek	LW	0	0	0	1	3	2	+1	0	15:05	0:00
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	10:32	0:00
A. Klapka	RW	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	10:13	0:00
J. Kirkland	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:03	0:00
K. Bahl	D	1	0	1	2	1	3	+2	0	21:34	0:00
J. Hanley	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+3	0	14:36	0:00
R. Andersson	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	+2	0	24:28	2:38
M. Weegar	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	0	22:51	2:34
J. Bean	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	19:19	0:00
Z. Parekh	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+2	0	14:00	3:28

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	31	30	1	.968	60:00	Win
D. Cooley	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYR

Line 1A. Panarin18:04J. Miller17:30C. Sheary14:53

Line 2M. Zibanejad14:52A. Lafrenière14:04T. Raddysh14:31

Line 3B. Othmann12:31N. Laba12:09W. Cuylle11:33

Line 4S. Carrick8:26A. Edstrom8:35J. Parssinen8:35

Pair 1V. Gavrikov20:26A. Fox20:20

Pair 2W. Borgen17:24M. Robertson14:32

Pair 3C. Soucy15:35B. Schneider16:00

CGY

Line 1M. Backlund16:01S. Honzek14:22B. Coleman15:06

Line 2J. Huberdeau15:04N. Kadri14:50M. Frost13:35

Line 3Y. Sharangovich13:43C. Zary11:41J. Farabee11:15

Line 4J. Kirkland9:30A. Klapka10:13R. Lomberg10:32

Pair 1R. Andersson20:31K. Bahl20:14

Pair 2M. Weegar19:37J. Bean19:19

Pair 3J. Hanley13:55Z. Parekh10:32

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 3.1, CGY 2.8	NYR 1, CGY 5
Total goals	5.9	6
Shots on goal	NYR 27.4, CGY 29.6	NYR 31, CGY 30
Win chance	NYR 54%	CGY won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CGY N. Kadri	3.5	4	0.92	2	32%	1
NYR A. Panarin	3.0	7	1.22	0	36%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.7	3	0.92	0	29%	0
CGY B. Coleman	2.4	7	0.54	2	23%	2
NYR J. Miller	2.3	1	1.09	0	32%	0
CGY M. Weegar	2.2	2	0.54	0	10%	0
CGY J. Farabee	2.2	2	0.46	1	19%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.2	2	0.66	0	25%	0
CGY M. Backlund	2.1	1	0.44	2	17%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	2.1	0	0.47	1	21%	0
CGY J. Huberdeau	2.0	0	0.82	1	24%	0
NYR A. Fox	2.0	2	0.86	0	14%	0
CGY R. Andersson	1.9	2	0.38	0	9%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.6	2	0.47	1	21%	1
CGY C. Zary	1.6	1	0.41	1	17%	0
CGY M. Frost	1.6	2	0.47	1	15%	0
NYR C. Sheary	1.5	2	0.42	0	16%	0
CGY S. Honzek	1.4	1	0.20	0	10%	0
CGY A. Klapka	1.3	2	0.33	0	14%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.3	3	0.31	1	5%	0
NYR S. Carrick	1.3	1	0.26	0	11%	0
CGY Z. Parekh	1.2	1	0.24	0	6%	0
NYR B. Othmann	1.1	1	0.15	0	7%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.1	0	0.23	0	5%	0
NYR T. Raddysh	1.1	2	0.25	0	11%	0
CGY J. Bean	1.1	0	0.16	0	4%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.0	4	0.22	0	4%	0
CGY K. Bahl	1.0	2	0.21	1	3%	1
NYR M. Robertson	1.0	0	0.17	0	5%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	0.9	1	0.16	0	7%	0
NYR A. Edstrom	0.8	0	0.21	0	10%	0
NYR N. Laba	0.8	2	0.20	1	8%	1
NYR C. Soucy	0.8	0	0.15	0	4%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.6	0	0.12	1	3%	0
CGY J. Kirkland	0.6	0	0.23	0	8%	0
NYR J. Parssinen	0.6	1	0.24	0	9%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.