Game Recap: NYR 3, CGY 1, November 11, 2026

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Game Recap

NYR3

FinalWed, Nov 11, 2026Every game that night

CGY1

NYR beat CGY 3-1, with the chances close: 2.78 expected goals to 2.27. M. Zibanejad led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Farabee had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. J. Korpisalo stopped 29 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYR	0	2	1	3
CGY	0	0	1	1

2nd 0:59NYRM. Zibanejad0.05 xG
2nd 10:52NYRM. ZibanejadPP0.08 xG
3rd 7:41CGYA. KlapkaPP0.33 xG
3rd 19:53NYRT. KartyeEN0.79 xG

Team Stats

NYRCGY

24Shots on goal30

2.78Expected goals2.27

46Shot attempts51

155v5 shots on goal26

1/3Power play1/2

29Hits21

8Blocked shots13

4Penalty minutes6

16Giveaways18

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 2.78 xGCGY 2.27 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR23 on goal, 3 scored

CGY30 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Zibanejad	C	2	0	2	2	0	2	+2	0	17:59	2:28
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	2	2	2	1	0	+1	0	17:46	2:27
J. Miller	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	19:38	1:45
T. Kartye	LW	1	0	1	2	4	0	+1	0	18:42	1:45
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	15:29	1:57
N. Laba	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	17:25	0:00
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	17:16	1:50
G. Perreault	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	2	15:19	2:21
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:54	1:56
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	3	4	1	0	0	11:42	0:00
J. Chmelar	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:12	0:00
G. Gawdin	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	6:27	0:00
M. Pettersson	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	21:53	0:00
A. Fox	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	24:40	3:40
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	0	4	2	+1	0	23:22	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	2	20:33	0:22
S. Morrow	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	13:34	0:34
M. Robertson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	12:15	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Korpisalo	30	29	1	.967	60:00	Win
D. Garand	0	0	0	–	0:00

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Klapka	RW	1	0	1	4	6	0	0	2	16:07	1:39
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	16:05	1:47
R. Strome	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	2	15:05	1:34
J. Farabee	LW	0	0	0	5	0	4	-2	0	20:30	2:06
M. Coronato	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	18:41	2:01
M. Gridin	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	18:33	2:13
M. Backlund	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	18:06	0:04
M. Frost	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	17:01	2:02
J. Castagna	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:49	0:13
M. Pospisil	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	11:08	0:00
B. Othmann	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:10	0:10
A. Suniev	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	8:46	1:28
Z. Parekh	D	0	0	0	3	0	3	-1	0	22:43	3:03
S. Nemec	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	22:21	1:10
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	21:30	0:00
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	18:39	0:00
Y. Kuznetsov	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	16:42	0:00
J. Hanley	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	14:30	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Cooley	23	21	2	.913	58:21	Loss
D. Wolf	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYR

Line 1J. Miller14:57T. Kartye15:07P. Dorofeyev13:32

Line 2M. Zibanejad14:19A. Lafrenière14:56G. Perreault12:52

Line 3W. Cuylle12:47N. Laba14:44O. Bjorkstrand9:58

Line 4J. Chmelar10:12E. Tolvanen10:44G. Gawdin6:27

Pair 1M. Pettersson19:08B. Schneider19:53

Pair 2V. Gavrikov18:52A. Fox18:22

Pair 3M. Robertson11:32S. Morrow12:48

CGY

Line 1M. Backlund15:46J. Farabee14:43M. Coronato15:01

Line 2R. Strome13:31M. Gridin14:47M. Pospisil10:50

Line 3M. Frost13:20Y. Sharangovich12:07A. Suniev7:18

Line 4A. Klapka14:28J. Castagna9:51B. Othmann9:00

Pair 1J. Middleton16:37Z. Whitecloud19:01

Pair 2J. Hanley12:44S. Nemec19:38

Pair 3Z. Parekh18:03Y. Kuznetsov14:25

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

13 of 19 overs hit (68%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
CGY J. Farabee	2.5	+146	-165	5	Over
CGY M. Backlund	2.5	+142	-160	4	Over
CGY M. Coronato	2.5	+118	-140	3	Over
CGY M. Gridin	2.5	+150	-185	3	Over
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.5	+150	-190	2	Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev	2.5	-130	+102	3	Over
NYR A. Fox	1.5	-125	+115	2	Over
NYR A. Lafrenière	1.5	-150	+140	2	Over
CGY A. Suniev	1.5	+100	-120	0	Under
NYR G. Perreault	1.5	-150	+125	2	Over
NYR J. Miller	1.5	-140	+119	2	Over
CGY M. Frost	1.5	-115	+110	0	Under
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	1.5	+120	-125	0	Under
CGY R. Strome	1.5	+115	-140	3	Over
CGY S. Nemec	1.5	-105	-120	2	Over
NYR T. Kartye	1.5	-120	+103	2	Over
NYR W. Cuylle	1.5	-135	+115	1	Under
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.5	-105	-113	0	Under
CGY Z. Parekh	1.5	-125	+110	3	Over

3 of 35 overs hit (9%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
NYR A. Fox	0.5	+600	-800	0	Under
CGY A. Klapka	0.5	+575	-900	1	Over
NYR A. Lafrenière	0.5	+230	-290	0	Under
CGY A. Suniev	0.5	+440	-650	0	Under
CGY B. Othmann	0.5	+900	-1400	0	Under
NYR B. Schneider	0.5	+1700	-2500	0	Under
NYR E. Tolvanen	0.5	+700	-900	0	Under
NYR G. Perreault	0.5	+260	-340	0	Under
CGY J. Castagna	0.5	+950	-1600	0	Under
NYR J. Chmelar	0.5	+900	-1200	0	Under
CGY J. Farabee	0.5	+250	-310	0	Under
CGY J. Hanley	0.5	+1800	-10000	0	Under
CGY J. Middleton	0.5	+1800	-2500	0	Under
NYR J. Miller	0.5	+270	-390	0	Under
CGY M. Backlund	0.5	+380	-500	0	Under
CGY M. Coronato	0.5	+240	-320	0	Under
CGY M. Frost	0.5	+300	-475	0	Under
CGY M. Gridin	0.5	+275	-390	0	Under
NYR M. Pettersson	0.5	+1800	-3500	0	Under
CGY M. Pospisil	0.5	+700	-1000	0	Under
NYR M. Robertson	0.5	+1300	-3500	0	Under
NYR M. Zibanejad	0.5	+205	-280	2	Over
NYR N. Laba	0.5	+950	-1400	0	Under
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	0.5	+450	-600	0	Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev	0.5	+190	-250	0	Under
CGY R. Strome	0.5	+525	-700	0	Under
NYR S. Morrow	0.5	+1500	-2800	0	Under
CGY S. Nemec	0.5	+900	-1600	0	Under
NYR T. Kartye	0.5	+340	-475	1	Over
NYR V. Gavrikov	0.5	+1050	-2500	0	Under
NYR W. Cuylle	0.5	+340	-475	0	Under
CGY Y. Kuznetsov	0.5	+1800	-3500	0	Under
CGY Y. Sharangovich	0.5	+390	-600	0	Under
CGY Z. Parekh	0.5	+700	-1200	0	Under
CGY Z. Whitecloud	0.5	+1900	-2800	0	Under

6 of 23 overs hit (26%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
NYR A. Fox	0.5	-125	+119	0	Under
NYR A. Lafrenière	0.5	+165	-209	2	Over
CGY A. Suniev	0.5	+275	-390	0	Under
NYR G. Perreault	0.5	+200	-265	0	Under
CGY J. Farabee	0.5	+162	-197	0	Under
NYR J. Miller	0.5	+125	-155	1	Over
CGY M. Backlund	0.5	+280	-325	0	Under
CGY M. Coronato	0.5	+146	-175	0	Under
CGY M. Frost	0.5	+162	-195	0	Under
CGY M. Gridin	0.5	+190	-235	0	Under
NYR M. Pettersson	0.5	+310	-450	1	Over
CGY M. Pospisil	0.5	+290	-425	0	Under
NYR M. Zibanejad	0.5	+125	-135	0	Under
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	0.5	+310	-400	0	Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev	0.5	+210	-250	1	Over
CGY R. Strome	0.5	+270	-340	1	Over
CGY S. Nemec	0.5	+250	-290	0	Under
NYR T. Kartye	0.5	+225	-275	0	Under
NYR V. Gavrikov	0.5	+300	-420	0	Under
NYR W. Cuylle	0.5	+330	-400	0	Under
CGY Y. Sharangovich	0.5	+275	-390	1	Over
CGY Z. Parekh	0.5	+176	-230	0	Under
CGY Z. Whitecloud	0.5	+330	-475	0	Under

8 of 23 overs hit (35%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
NYR A. Fox	0.5	-190	+150	0	Under
NYR A. Lafrenière	0.5	-125	+100	2	Over
CGY A. Suniev	0.5	+160	-200	0	Under
NYR G. Perreault	0.5	+100	-117	0	Under
CGY J. Farabee	0.5	-125	+120	0	Under
NYR J. Miller	0.5	-135	+111	1	Over
CGY M. Backlund	0.5	+150	-175	0	Under
CGY M. Coronato	0.5	-125	+115	0	Under
CGY M. Frost	0.5	-105	-110	0	Under
CGY M. Gridin	0.5	-105	-115	0	Under
NYR M. Pettersson	0.5	+245	-340	1	Over
CGY M. Pospisil	0.5	+190	-260	0	Under
NYR M. Zibanejad	0.5	-175	+140	2	Over
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	0.5	+170	-209	0	Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev	0.5	-110	+100	1	Over
CGY R. Strome	0.5	+160	-200	1	Over
CGY S. Nemec	0.5	+168	-210	0	Under
NYR T. Kartye	0.5	+115	-145	1	Over
NYR V. Gavrikov	0.5	+230	-300	0	Under
NYR W. Cuylle	0.5	+150	-160	0	Under
CGY Y. Sharangovich	0.5	+160	-190	1	Over
CGY Z. Parekh	0.5	+130	-140	0	Under
CGY Z. Whitecloud	0.5	+275	-390	0	Under

5 of 18 overs hit (28%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
NYR A. Fox	0.5	+185	-240	0	Under
NYR A. Lafrenière	0.5	+310	-350	1	Over
CGY A. Suniev	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
NYR G. Perreault	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
CGY J. Farabee	0.5	+310	-400	0	Under
NYR J. Miller	0.5	+310	-425	0	Under
CGY M. Coronato	0.5	+310	-375	0	Under
CGY M. Frost	0.5	+300	-350	0	Under
CGY M. Gridin	0.5	+280	-400	0	Under
NYR M. Zibanejad	0.5	+230	-325	1	Over
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	0.5	+450	-1200	0	Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev	0.5	+270	-325	1	Over
CGY R. Strome	0.5	+500	-1600	1	Over
CGY S. Nemec	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
NYR T. Kartye	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
NYR W. Cuylle	0.5	+450	-1200	0	Under
CGY Y. Sharangovich	0.5	+500	-1600	1	Over
CGY Z. Parekh	0.5	+300	-450	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
CGY D. Cooley	24.5	-106	-115	21	Under
NYR J. Korpisalo	24.5	+111	-115	29	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
NYR B. Schneider	1.5	-110	-125	2	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

MilestonePavel Dorofeyev NYR 2 goals from 100Not yet: 1 A, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 3.1, CGY 2.9	NYR 3, CGY 1
Total goals	6.1	4
Shots on goal	NYR 26.8, CGY 27.6	NYR 24, CGY 30
Win chance	NYR 53%	NYR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYR P. Dorofeyev	2.9	3	0.70	1	33%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.3	2	0.88	2	28%	2
CGY M. Coronato	2.3	3	0.69	0	24%	0
CGY M. Backlund	2.3	4	0.51	0	20%	0
CGY J. Farabee	2.2	5	0.67	0	26%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.1	2	0.73	2	27%	0
NYR J. Miller	2.1	2	0.88	1	27%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	2.0	1	0.52	0	23%	0
NYR G. Perreault	1.9	2	0.57	0	24%	0
CGY M. Gridin	1.9	3	0.60	0	19%	0
NYR T. Kartye	1.8	2	0.59	1	21%	1
CGY Z. Parekh	1.8	3	0.43	0	13%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.7	2	0.92	0	12%	0
CGY M. Frost	1.7	0	0.56	0	20%	0
CGY S. Nemec	1.6	2	0.39	0	11%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.6	0	0.46	1	21%	0
CGY A. Suniev	1.6	0	0.43	0	19%	0
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	1.5	0	0.42	0	17%	0
CGY R. Strome	1.4	3	0.45	1	15%	0
CGY M. Pospisil	1.4	0	0.35	0	12%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.4	2	0.34	0	7%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.3	0	0.23	0	4%	0
CGY A. Klapka	1.3	4	0.33	1	13%	1
CGY Y. Kuznetsov	1.1	1	0.21	0	4%	0
NYR E. Tolvanen	1.1	3	0.25	0	12%	0
CGY Z. Whitecloud	1.0	0	0.25	0	5%	0
CGY J. Middleton	1.0	1	0.23	0	5%	0
NYR S. Morrow	1.0	2	0.18	0	3%	0
NYR G. Gawdin	1.0	0	0.13	0	7%	0
NYR N. Laba	1.0	1	0.31	0	12%	0
NYR M. Robertson	0.9	0	0.19	0	4%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.9	1	0.17	0	4%	0
NYR M. Pettersson	0.8	0	0.27	1	4%	0
CGY J. Castagna	0.8	0	0.26	0	10%	0
NYR J. Chmelar	0.8	0	0.18	0	9%	0
CGY B. Othmann	0.8	0	0.13	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.