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Game Recap
NYR6
CHI2
NYR beat CHI 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.04 expected goals to 2.03. F. Chytil led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). C. Smith had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. L. Domingue stopped 25 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| CHI | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 5:37CHIT. Bertuzzi0.29 xG
- 1st 15:12NYRJ. Brodzinski0.07 xG
- 1st 18:22NYRW. Borgen0.06 xG
- 2nd 3:28NYRF. Chytil0.12 xG
- 2nd 9:54NYRR. Smith0.16 xG
- 2nd 15:16NYRV. Trocheck0.09 xG
- 2nd 18:00CHIW. Kaiser0.11 xG
- 3rd 8:36NYRF. Chytil0.17 xG
Team Stats
NYRCHI
34Shots on goal27
3.04Expected goals2.03
57Shot attempts45
345v5 shots on goal26
0/0Power play0/1
21Hits17
11Blocked shots8
4Penalty minutes2
4Giveaways17
1Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYR 3.04 xGCHI 2.03 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Chytil | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:57 | 0:00 |
| B. Berard | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 12:39 | 0:00 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:36 | 0:00 |
| V. Trocheck | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 18:07 | 0:00 |
| A. Panarin | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:33 | 0:00 |
| R. Smith | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:34 | 0:00 |
| M. Zibanejad | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:51 | 0:00 |
| J. Brodzinski | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:18 | 0:00 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:06 | 0:00 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:47 | 0:00 |
| J. Vesey | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:40 | 0:00 |
| A. Edstrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:53 | 0:00 |
| A. Fox | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:27 | 0:00 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 17:51 | 0:00 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 24:39 | 0:00 |
| W. Borgen | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 22:18 | 0:00 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:43 | 0:00 |
| U. Vaakanainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16:47 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Domingue | 27 | 25 | 2 | .926 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Quick | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Bedard | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:52 | 1:16 |
| T. Bertuzzi | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:11 | 1:17 |
| F. Nazar | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:35 | 0:43 |
| J. Dickinson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 17:39 | 0:07 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:05 | 0:40 |
| N. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:04 | 0:07 |
| I. Mikheyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:26 | 0:07 |
| R. Donato | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:49 | 1:14 |
| C. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:35 | 0:37 |
| C. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 13:22 | 0:36 |
| T. Teravainen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:16 | 1:10 |
| P. Maroon | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:05 | 0:00 |
| W. Kaiser | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:30 | 0:00 |
| T. Brodie | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:57 | 0:00 |
| S. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:35 | 1:13 |
| A. Vlasic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:35 | 0:46 |
| L. Crevier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:02 | 0:07 |
| N. Allan | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 15:32 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Soderblom | 34 | 28 | 6 | .824 | 59:36 | Loss |
| P. Mrazek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYR 3.3, CHI 2.8 | NYR 6, CHI 2 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | NYR 30.2, CHI 29.0 | NYR 34, CHI 27 |
| Win chance | NYR 57% | NYR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR A. Panarin | 3.0 | 2 | 1.17 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| CHI C. Bedard | 2.7 | 0 | 0.91 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 2.6 | 1 | 0.69 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.6 | 4 | 0.86 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.3 | 1 | 0.77 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| CHI R. Donato | 2.2 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NYR F. Chytil | 2.1 | 3 | 0.50 | 2 | 20% | 2 |
| CHI S. Jones | 2.1 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CHI T. Hall | 2.0 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 1.9 | 2 | 0.61 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| CHI I. Mikheyev | 1.8 | 3 | 0.43 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.8 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NYR A. Fox | 1.8 | 1 | 0.87 | 2 | 12% | 0 |
| NYR R. Smith | 1.7 | 1 | 0.55 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| CHI T. Teravainen | 1.7 | 1 | 0.66 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CHI C. Smith | 1.7 | 5 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CHI N. Foligno | 1.6 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NYR B. Berard | 1.5 | 3 | 0.30 | 2 | 14% | 0 |
| CHI J. Dickinson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NYR J. Brodzinski | 1.4 | 2 | 0.26 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| CHI A. Vlasic | 1.4 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR K. Miller | 1.2 | 2 | 0.31 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.0 | 4 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CHI W. Kaiser | 1.0 | 3 | 0.19 | 1 | 2% | 1 |
| CHI F. Nazar | 1.0 | 2 | 0.26 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| NYR J. Vesey | 0.9 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CHI P. Maroon | 0.9 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR W. Borgen | 0.9 | 2 | 0.21 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| CHI L. Crevier | 0.9 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 0.9 | 3 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYR A. Edstrom | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR R. Lindgren | 0.8 | 1 | 0.22 | 2 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR U. Vaakanainen | 0.7 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| CHI T. Brodie | 0.5 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
| CHI N. Allan | 0.5 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.