Game Recap: NYR 3, COL 6, November 20, 2025

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Game Recap

NYR3

FinalThu, Nov 20, 2025Every game that night

COL6

COL beat NYR 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.91 expected goals to 1.46. COL outshot NYR 35 to 19. C. Makar led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). C. Makar had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 2.8. S. Wedgewood stopped 16 of 19.

Team Stats

NYRCOL

19Shots on goal35

1.46Expected goals3.91

41Shot attempts77

125v5 shots on goal24

2/2Power play1/6

22Hits17

26Blocked shots13

12Penalty minutes4

17Giveaways19

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 1.46 xGCOL 3.91 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR17 on goal, 3 scored

COL33 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Miller	C	2	0	2	3	2	0	-4	0	20:33	0:58
M. Zibanejad	C	0	2	2	0	0	0	-2	0	18:47	0:58
S. Carrick	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	2	9:57	0:00
A. Edstrom	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	+1	0	5:52	0:00
V. Trocheck	C	0	0	0	0	3	3	-4	2	22:15	0:58
A. Panarin	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-4	0	18:48	0:58
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	1	3	1	-3	2	16:27	0:00
N. Laba	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	14:39	0:00
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	13:30	0:00
C. Sheary	LW	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	2	12:35	0:00
J. Brodzinski	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	10:28	0:00
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	8:18	0:00
A. Fox	D	0	2	2	2	0	2	-4	0	19:33	0:58
B. Schneider	D	0	1	1	1	4	2	0	0	22:25	0:00
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	3	3	3	0	2	22:00	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-2	0	21:31	0:00
M. Robertson	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	17:32	0:00
S. Morrow	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	14:16	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	33	29	4	.879	58:49	Loss
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Necas	C	0	3	3	3	0	0	+3	0	26:22	8:56
N. MacKinnon	C	2	1	3	4	0	2	+3	0	25:09	8:50
B. Nelson	C	1	1	2	4	1	0	0	0	18:15	5:28
R. Colton	C	1	0	1	5	0	0	+1	0	16:36	4:01
J. Drury	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+2	2	13:58	0:00
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	22:47	7:42
G. Landeskog	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	18:55	2:51
V. Olofsson	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	18:03	6:14
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	1	5	0	+1	0	13:06	0:00
Z. Bardakov	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	6:07	0:00
T. Nielsen	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	6:05	0:00
G. Brindley	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2:47	0:24
C. Makar	D	2	1	3	9	0	4	+3	0	25:03	7:21
S. Girard	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	2	15:23	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	14:41	0:07
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	+2	0	23:33	3:59
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	17:26	2:52
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	+1	0	14:46	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Wedgewood	19	16	3	.842	60:00	Win
M. Blackwood	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYR

Line 1V. Trocheck15:52A. Panarin16:38J. Miller13:52

Line 2A. Lafrenière13:30M. Zibanejad12:48W. Cuylle12:10

Line 3C. Sheary12:35N. Laba11:34J. Brodzinski10:28

Line 4S. Carrick7:01T. Raddysh6:26A. Edstrom5:52

Pair 1C. Soucy17:20B. Schneider16:46

Pair 2V. Gavrikov15:17A. Fox16:10

Pair 3S. Morrow14:15M. Robertson11:56

COL

Line 1M. Necas16:34N. MacKinnon15:27A. Lehkonen13:28

Line 2B. Nelson11:50R. Colton12:23G. Landeskog15:52

Line 3P. Kelly12:46J. Drury13:51V. Olofsson11:42

Line 4Z. Bardakov5:54T. Nielsen6:05

Pair 1D. Toews18:28C. Makar17:15

Pair 2S. Girard15:23S. Malinski14:34

Pair 3B. Burns13:38J. Manson12:57

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 2.7, COL 3.5	NYR 3, COL 6
Total goals	6.2	9
Shots on goal	NYR 24.7, COL 33.0	NYR 19, COL 35
Win chance	COL 63%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.1	4	1.46	3	39%	2
COL C. Makar	2.8	9	1.06	3	24%	2
NYR A. Panarin	2.7	1	0.99	0	31%	0
COL M. Necas	2.6	3	1.02	3	30%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.5	1	0.81	0	31%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.4	0	0.75	2	26%	0
COL V. Olofsson	2.2	3	0.64	0	25%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	2.1	1	0.52	0	22%	0
NYR J. Miller	2.0	3	0.88	2	28%	2
COL B. Nelson	2.0	4	0.70	2	29%	1
NYR V. Trocheck	1.9	0	0.60	0	22%	0
COL R. Colton	1.9	5	0.46	1	19%	1
NYR A. Fox	1.8	2	0.78	2	12%	0
COL B. Burns	1.7	1	0.34	0	7%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	1.7	1	0.51	0	20%	0
COL G. Landeskog	1.7	1	0.57	0	22%	0
COL J. Drury	1.5	1	0.36	1	13%	0
COL D. Toews	1.5	0	0.50	0	10%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.5	1	0.25	1	5%	0
COL J. Manson	1.5	0	0.28	0	7%	0
COL G. Brindley	1.4	0	0.43	0	16%	0
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.4	0	0.30	0	14%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.2	1	0.29	0	5%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.2	1	0.25	0	10%	0
NYR C. Sheary	1.1	1	0.29	0	12%	0
COL S. Girard	1.0	1	0.26	1	4%	0
NYR N. Laba	1.0	1	0.26	0	13%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.0	1	0.22	1	5%	0
NYR T. Raddysh	1.0	0	0.22	0	10%	0
NYR S. Morrow	0.9	1	0.18	0	3%	0
NYR C. Soucy	0.9	3	0.19	0	5%	0
NYR S. Carrick	0.8	1	0.18	1	8%	0
COL Z. Bardakov	0.7	0	0.25	0	7%	0
NYR A. Edstrom	0.7	1	0.15	1	8%	1
NYR M. Robertson	0.7	1	0.11	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.