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Game Recap
NYR5
DET2
NYR beat DET 5-2, with the chances close: 2.47 expected goals to 2.83. A. Panarin scored three for NYR. K. Miller had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. J. Quick stopped 29 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
| DET | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 8:30NYRA. Panarin0.09 xG
- 1st 15:39NYRA. PanarinPP0.08 xG
- 2nd 1:27DETM. Seider0.12 xG
- 2nd 8:46NYRV. TrocheckPP0.12 xG
- 2nd 11:42NYRA. PanarinPP0.08 xG
- 2nd 12:20NYRV. Mancini0.03 xG
- 3rd 16:41DETJ. CompherPP0.11 xG
Team Stats
NYRDET
34Shots on goal31
2.47Expected goals2.83
62Shot attempts59
265v5 shots on goal24
3/4Power play1/5
14Hits20
11Blocked shots16
14Penalty minutes12
14Giveaways18
8Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYR 2.47 xGDET 2.83 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Trocheck | C | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:30 | 1:54 |
| A. Panarin | LW | 3 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:34 | 1:54 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:05 | 0:42 |
| F. Chytil | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:17 | 0:42 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 6 | 12:39 | 0:42 |
| M. Zibanejad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:10 | 1:54 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:24 | 0:42 |
| C. Kreider | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:56 | 1:54 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:42 | 0:00 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11:38 | 0:00 |
| J. Brodzinski | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:12 | 0:00 |
| A. Edstrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:05 | 0:00 |
| A. Fox | D | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:25 | 1:54 |
| V. Mancini | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:37 | 0:00 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 23:38 | 0:00 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 21:05 | 0:00 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:19 | 0:42 |
| Z. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:32 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Quick | 31 | 29 | 2 | .935 | 59:13 | Win |
| I. Shesterkin | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Compher | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:26 | 1:50 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:26 | 4:08 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:13 | 4:06 |
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:47 | 4:09 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:44 | 4:07 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:37 | 1:39 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:29 | 1:53 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:34 | 0:00 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:08 | 1:38 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:36 | 0:00 |
| C. Fischer | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 10:18 | 0:00 |
| T. Motte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:33 | 0:00 |
| M. Seider | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:54 | 1:27 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 19:31 | 0:15 |
| E. Gustafsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 18:45 | 4:32 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20:55 | 0:00 |
| O. Maatta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:03 | 0:00 |
| J. Holl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:15 | 0:11 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYR 3.6, DET 3.1 | NYR 5, DET 2 |
| Total goals | 6.8 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | NYR 31.4, DET 31.1 | NYR 34, DET 31 |
| Win chance | NYR 57% | NYR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET D. Larkin | 3.3 | 2 | 1.01 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| NYR A. Panarin | 3.2 | 4 | 1.34 | 4 | 35% | 3 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.9 | 1 | 0.74 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.8 | 4 | 0.81 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.8 | 2 | 0.99 | 4 | 30% | 1 |
| NYR C. Kreider | 2.7 | 3 | 0.88 | 0 | 40% | 0 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.7 | 0 | 0.99 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 2.6 | 2 | 0.74 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.2 | 4 | 0.80 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| NYR F. Chytil | 2.0 | 1 | 0.47 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| NYR R. Smith | 1.9 | 0 | 0.58 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.8 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.7 | 4 | 0.49 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| NYR J. Trouba | 1.7 | 4 | 0.38 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYR A. Fox | 1.7 | 0 | 0.88 | 3 | 14% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.6 | 2 | 0.54 | 2 | 20% | 1 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.5 | 4 | 0.29 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYR K. Kakko | 1.4 | 2 | 0.35 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.3 | 4 | 0.25 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.3 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.2 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYR J. Brodzinski | 1.2 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.2 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYR Z. Jones | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.2 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR K. Miller | 1.2 | 4 | 0.40 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET T. Motte | 1.2 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET E. Gustafsson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.36 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| DET C. Fischer | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET J. Veleno | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 0.9 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET O. Maatta | 0.6 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR A. Edstrom | 0.6 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.5 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.