NYR beat DET 4-0 despite fewer good chances: 1.91 expected goals to 3.53. DET outshot NYR 37 to 24. A. Panarin led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). E. Gustafsson had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. J. Quick stopped 37 of 37.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYR 1.91 xGDET 3.53 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Panarin | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:28 | 1:17 |
| M. Zibanejad | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:10 | 1:17 |
| R. Smith | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:40 | 0:50 |
| C. Kreider | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:56 | 1:17 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:32 | 0:50 |
| J. Vesey | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:27 | 0:00 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 10:50 | 0:00 |
| V. Trocheck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:14 | 1:17 |
| F. Chytil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:41 | 0:50 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:29 | 0:00 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:44 | 0:48 |
| A. Edstrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:55 | 0:00 |
| A. Fox | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 21:03 | 1:17 |
| Z. Jones | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:17 | 0:50 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | +1 | 2 | 22:59 | 0:02 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:54 | 0:00 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 20:39 | 0:00 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:02 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Quick | 37 | 37 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| I. Shesterkin | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:47 | 4:00 |
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:06 | 4:00 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:55 | 4:00 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:24 | 4:00 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:46 | 0:00 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:30 | 0:00 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:35 | 0:00 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:11 | 0:00 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:03 | 0:00 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:59 | 0:00 |
| T. Motte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:25 | 0:00 |
| C. Fischer | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:17 | 0:00 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 23:01 | 4:00 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:30 | 0:00 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 19:58 | 0:00 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:15 | 0:00 |
| E. Gustafsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:10 | 0:00 |
| J. Holl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:28 | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYR 3.7, DET 2.9 | NYR 4, DET 0 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | NYR 31.7, DET 29.2 | NYR 24, DET 37 |
| Win chance | NYR 63% | NYR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR A. Panarin | 3.0 | 4 | 1.23 | 2 | 34% | 1 |
| DET D. Larkin | 3.0 | 2 | 0.82 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.7 | 2 | 0.70 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.7 | 1 | 0.93 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.6 | 4 | 0.72 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| NYR C. Kreider | 2.6 | 2 | 0.77 | 1 | 37% | 1 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.4 | 1 | 0.88 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 2.3 | 0 | 0.68 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| NYR F. Chytil | 2.2 | 4 | 0.51 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NYR R. Smith | 1.9 | 1 | 0.60 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| DET L. Raymond | 1.9 | 4 | 0.70 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.9 | 3 | 0.51 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.8 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NYR J. Trouba | 1.7 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYR A. Fox | 1.7 | 1 | 0.86 | 2 | 14% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.7 | 3 | 0.35 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.6 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR K. Kakko | 1.5 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.4 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.3 | 3 | 0.24 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.3 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR K. Miller | 1.2 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.2 | 3 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR Z. Jones | 1.2 | 1 | 0.29 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| DET T. Motte | 1.2 | 3 | 0.15 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.1 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NYR J. Vesey | 1.1 | 2 | 0.25 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| DET E. Gustafsson | 1.1 | 4 | 0.31 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET J. Petry | 1.1 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.0 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET C. Fischer | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR R. Lindgren | 0.9 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR A. Edstrom | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.5 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.