Game Recap: NYR 4, DET 1, November 7, 2025

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Game Recap

NYR4

FinalFri, Nov 7, 2025Every game that night

DET1

NYR beat DET 4-1, with the chances close: 2.95 expected goals to 2.35. A. Panarin led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). J. Compher had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. J. Quick stopped 32 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYR	1	1	2	4
DET	1	0	0	1

1st 6:46NYRW. CuyllePP0.08 xG
1st 11:06DETJ. Compher0.08 xG
2nd 4:52NYRN. Laba0.09 xG
3rd 7:29NYRA. Panarin0.08 xG
3rd 8:27NYRA. Lafrenière0.28 xG

Team Stats

NYRDET

26Shots on goal33

2.95Expected goals2.35

59Shot attempts63

215v5 shots on goal24

1/3Power play0/4

27Hits24

20Blocked shots14

11Penalty minutes11

5Giveaways16

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 2.95 xGDET 2.35 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR24 on goal, 4 scored

DET33 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Panarin	LW	1	2	3	2	0	0	+2	0	18:31	3:57
M. Zibanejad	C	0	2	2	3	0	0	+1	0	19:23	3:07
A. Lafrenière	LW	1	1	2	1	1	0	+1	0	16:35	1:08
W. Cuylle	LW	1	0	1	3	3	4	-1	0	17:47	2:52
C. Sheary	LW	0	1	1	5	0	1	+2	0	16:08	1:11
N. Laba	C	1	0	1	3	0	2	+1	0	15:57	0:46
T. Raddysh	RW	0	1	1	1	1	2	+1	0	15:39	0:40
J. Miller	C	0	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	19:11	3:10
J. Brodzinski	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:28	0:00
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:48	0:00
J. Parssinen	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:12	0:00
J. Chmelar	RW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	5	6:27	0:00
A. Fox	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	2	24:39	4:03
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	2	22:13	0:21
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	2	3	4	0	0	18:37	0:15
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	2	18:13	0:00
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	17:52	0:00
M. Robertson	D	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	14:51	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Quick	33	32	1	.970	59:29	Win
I. Shesterkin	0	0	0	–	0:00

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Compher	LW	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	0	15:44	0:35
A. Copp	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	14:46	0:00
M. Appleton	C	0	1	1	1	3	1	-1	0	14:19	0:22
D. Larkin	C	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	19:13	5:06
P. Kane	RW	0	0	0	6	1	0	-1	0	17:41	5:00
L. Raymond	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	17:19	5:06
A. DeBrincat	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	16:50	5:01
M. Kasper	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	15:27	1:44
E. Finnie	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	15:19	2:24
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:16	2:36
E. Soderblom	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	10:21	0:36
M. Rasmussen	C	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	10:09	0:35
M. Seider	D	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	25:24	4:30
S. Edvinsson	D	0	0	0	3	4	2	0	0	22:11	0:00
A. Sandin-Pellikka	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	2	19:21	2:43
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	-1	0	18:56	0:21
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-2	2	16:38	3:10
T. Hamonic	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	5	12:49	0:11

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Talbot	26	22	4	.846	59:59	Loss
J. Gibson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYR

Line 1M. Zibanejad13:34T. Raddysh13:44A. Panarin14:02

Line 2A. Lafrenière15:27J. Miller13:41W. Cuylle12:02

Line 3C. Sheary12:53N. Laba11:28J. Brodzinski10:57

Line 4S. Carrick8:38J. Parssinen8:12J. Chmelar6:27

Pair 1A. Fox18:57V. Gavrikov18:21

Pair 2C. Soucy13:48B. Schneider14:57

Pair 3W. Borgen14:27M. Robertson14:15

DET

Line 1A. Copp12:56J. Compher13:08M. Appleton12:15

Line 2P. Kane12:40M. Kasper13:43A. DeBrincat11:49

Line 3D. Larkin11:54E. Finnie12:24L. Raymond11:25

Line 4J. Riemsdyk10:40E. Soderblom9:45M. Rasmussen8:28

Pair 1S. Edvinsson19:28M. Seider18:16

Pair 2B. Chiarot16:24A. Sandin-Pellikka15:03

Pair 3T. Hamonic12:05A. Johansson13:27

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 3.1, DET 3.0	NYR 4, DET 1
Total goals	6.1	5
Shots on goal	NYR 26.7, DET 28.3	NYR 26, DET 33
Win chance	NYR 51%	NYR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DET A. DeBrincat	3.1	3	0.81	0	29%	0
NYR A. Panarin	3.0	2	1.15	3	35%	1
DET D. Larkin	3.0	4	0.98	0	34%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.7	3	0.92	2	30%	0
DET P. Kane	2.5	6	0.80	0	24%	0
NYR J. Miller	2.4	1	1.08	0	32%	0
DET L. Raymond	2.2	2	0.85	0	26%	0
DET E. Finnie	2.1	1	0.65	0	23%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	2.1	3	0.51	1	21%	1
NYR A. Fox	2.0	3	0.94	0	16%	0
DET M. Kasper	2.0	0	0.47	0	21%	0
DET M. Seider	2.0	3	0.51	0	8%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.0	1	0.63	2	23%	1
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.4	1	0.34	0	14%	0
DET J. Riemsdyk	1.4	0	0.45	0	16%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.4	1	0.34	0	7%	0
NYR C. Sheary	1.3	5	0.39	1	15%	0
DET M. Appleton	1.3	1	0.33	1	12%	0
DET J. Compher	1.3	5	0.43	1	16%	1
NYR S. Carrick	1.2	0	0.27	0	11%	0
NYR T. Raddysh	1.2	1	0.29	1	13%	0
DET E. Soderblom	1.2	1	0.31	0	13%	0
DET A. Copp	1.2	0	0.41	1	14%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.2	1	0.19	0	5%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	1.1	3	0.35	0	9%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.1	2	0.28	0	7%	0
DET T. Hamonic	1.1	0	0.15	0	4%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.1	0	0.24	0	5%	0
DET A. Sandin-Pellikka	1.1	1	0.22	0	4%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.1	2	0.27	0	12%	0
NYR N. Laba	1.0	3	0.28	1	13%	1
NYR C. Soucy	1.0	0	0.20	0	6%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.9	0	0.15	0	4%	0
NYR M. Robertson	0.9	0	0.16	0	6%	0
NYR J. Parssinen	0.7	0	0.27	0	11%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.